As France prepares to vote, what are Macron’s options? – DW – 06/29/2024

French opinion polls show the far-right National Rally could win a majority in the National Assembly, the lower chamber of parliament, as voters head to the ballot box in two rounds on June 30 and July 7. The ECU swept parliament elections in early June, with almost twice as many votes as the centrist Renaissance Party led by President Emmanuel Macron – a crushing defeat that prompted Macron to call snap legislative elections.

If the actual polls prove true, how brutal will this shift in energy be for Macron’s talent to reach the top in Paris? DW answers the most pressing questions below.

Who will Macron appoint as top minister?

The French charter, adopted in 1958, imposes negative restrictions on the president in choosing and appointing the top minister. On the other hand, they have to remember the majority in Parliament.

If the Prime Minister does not have parliamentary support, the next National Assembly – the larger of the two houses of the French Parliament – ​​must endorse it by an affirmative vote. The federal government will next require the President to publish his retirement.

If National Rally wins a majority of seats in the National Assembly, Macron would have to deal the prime ministership to 28-year-old party leader Jordan Bardella.

Macron has a negative complement, said Hans Stark, a political scientist at the Sorbonne College in Paris. “Macron has become very weak. He doesn’t have much room for maneuver,” he told DW.

Bardella calls the absolute majority of parliamentary seats the prestige of assuming executive responsibility, because without it he will not be able to implement his political program.

If Bardella is appointed Prime Minister, France will contribute to the slogan of “cohabitation” for the fourth time in its modern history.

How is cohabitation painting done?

When the president and top ministers come from other political camps, government energy in France is divided. Each subsequent function works together for the good of the country in a so-called “cohabitation”.

The first such system was created in 1986 under socialist President François Mitterrand. After losing the parliamentary election, Mitterrand appointed conservative Gaullist Jacques Chirac as Prime Minister in 1993, followed by his party activist Edouard Balladur.

From 1997 to 2002, Socialist High Minister Lionel Jospin governed under President Chirac.

The division of energy between two political events predictably results in friction and sophisticated decision-making processes.

The Charter does not explicitly grant cohabitation, so the success of governing through this union depends on how well the Prime Minister and President work together.

How harsh can a cohabitation government be?

In France, the president typically handles nationwide security and foreign coverage, while top ministers look after home affairs.

However, under cohabitation, the functions of the presidency are quickly transferred to the Prime Minister. This means Macron will no longer be surrounded by extensive coverage lines, and will have to share the duties of global family members with the federal government.

Speaking shortly before the first round of voting, Marine Le Pen, leader of the National Rally parliamentary party, explained how her party viewed the hierarchy of power: “Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces is an honorary title for the President. , because the Prime Minister has the reins.”

A nationwide rally government would also have far-reaching scope to pursue domestic coverage, although these issues might also overshadow the power struggle between the President and the Prime Minister, as the first co-operation under Mitterrand in 1986 proved.

On 14 July Mitterrand publicly repudiated his prime ministership, saying he would no longer sign Chirac’s government orders on the reprivatization of 65 nationalized banks, insurance corporations and commercial enterprises.

and for a year a negative government decree may come into force without the signature of the President, a refusal of which can only prolong one of these undertakings, no longer prohibiting it.

How neatly will Macron and Bardella paint together?

Macron has unwanted parts of the program for nationwide rallies, meaning the goal of the birthday party is to “push Macron into a corner until he eventually resigns,” Stark predicted.

On the other hand, a nationwide rally leading to a complete blockade of government actions would also be unthinkable, as Macron and Bardella would eventually need to cooperate.

Macron will have to justify any rejection of his new government’s plans, which would require him to call on the Constitutional Council more often to scrutinize rules for constitutional compatibility before they are publicly presented. Some nationwide rally action may already have failed this hurdle.

What will happen if the nationwide rally does not get majority?

Stark believes Bardella will make good on his announcement and that National Rally will avoid taking on the government if the party falls short of an absolute majority.

If the Negative Alternative camp is in a position to control the majority, Paris could fall into an impasse. The President will no longer be able to dissolve Parliament again, as there is a one-year waiting period specified in the Charter.

In the parliament dissolved by Macron in early June, his coalition parties had only a relative majority – they had the most seats, but not more than half the votes. The federal government subsequently repeatedly invoked Article 49.3 of the French Charter through regulations it deemed effective.

This article allows the federal government to pass a law without a vote in the National Assembly unless a motion of negative confidence is passed within 24 hours.

However Article 49.3 is very controversial, and a new cohabitation government would probably not be enthusiastic about using it.

What will break the deadlock of the nationwide meeting?

Many parties have so far remained tight-lipped about how they will react to the national meeting without a majority.

National Rally’s Le Pen had previously said she was in favor of early presidential elections should parliamentary elections end without a winner. However Macron still cannot be forced to surrender. He has a presidential mandate until 2027, and has said he will not take the step of calling in sick until the next day. There is no clear scenario for either of these standoffs, and it is determined by the political dynamics of the upcoming election.

Theoretically, the appointment of Mavens to a non-partisan government would also be a chance. However there is no ancient fashion for this selection.

Macron could additionally invoke Article 16 of the French Charter, which grants the president extraordinary powers in the event of a disaster, to ensure the stability of order. He can only make rules and factory orders without parliamentary favour. On the other hand, France expert Hans Starck does not believe that Article 16 is a real possibility for the President.

“I don’t see how he can sustain this for three years until the next presidential election,” Stark said. “This would essentially mean that we would be in a state of permanent crisis.”

This text was initially written in German language.