As harvest approaches, North Coast wine grape growers are preparing for a tough market

The wine grape growing season this week in California’s North Coast region is on track with pristine standards, despite a flurry of heat within the past two weeks.

However, producers and growers are bracing for a difficult harvest season amid concerns over plentiful supplies and uncertain demand. That’s why the business faces significant headwinds from conditions like abundant supply for positive types, uncertain consumer demand, and potentially financially demanding situations for some avid gamers.

In North Coast vineyards, grape formation occurs 2 to 4 weeks before the weeks-long delayed harvest. According to San Rafael-based Ciati corporate wife Glenn Proctor, a management viticulturist and wholesale-wine merchant, one of the best-selling grapes in the patch was picked in the first part of December.

According to Tyler Click of Redwood Empire Winery Control, the first harvest of the Glowing Wine grapes is expected to open the second of August.

Fred Peterson, owner of Peterson Vineyards in Crispy Creek Valley, expects to begin harvesting in late August or early September, which he said is generally on track.

Peterson’s private 15 acres of vines on Bradford Mountain have coped well with the conditions so far, he said, but there are no signs of reduced berry size or other heat-related damage. He also purchases grapes from alternative growers in Crispy Creek Valley as well as Redwood Valley in Mendocino County.

Peterson also noted that the 2023 vintage, which saw a slightly cooler and late growing season, ended in higher-than-expected grape turnover due to continued expansion and formation of berries. This week, they expect a more standard compact size, with the heat likely limiting berry size and weight.

“A nice-looking crop, but you get paid like breakfast cereal – by weight, not by volume,” Peterson said.

While some wineries have expressed concerns about potential smoke taint from the fresh wildfires, Peterson said his vineyards were largely unaffected, with the smoke blowing in a different direction.

The expected date for the start of the previous harvest is a favorable sign, Proctor said, adding that some grape patrons have already requested a list of available fruit in case the heat causes tonnage to fall below vintner projections. On the other hand, he said the heat so far hasn’t had much of an impact on minnow size, with the patch seeing above average sizes in most cases.

The biggest fear is regarding the condition of the liquor market.

Proctor said patrons are “very cautious right now.”

“There is a lot of hesitancy among buyers, concerns about oversupply, concerns about margins and pricing going forward. They would rather be short rather than long in terms of inventory,” he noted.

Procter estimates that the percentage of non-harvested fruit on the North Coast is larger than the standard 5%-10% area, with a preliminary winery control corporate reporting that 70% of their fruit was once shriveled and 30% no longer are. Were.

“My understanding is it’s more than 5 or 10 percent because the contract has expired,” he said.

The majority wine market has been seeing additional work in recent months, although Procter cautioned producers against “desperation” steps such as making bulk wines without proper motives and fiscal support. He also suggested exercising caution when selling grapes late in the season, stressing the importance of calculating the financial strength of the buyer.

According to Steve Fredericks, president of Turrentine Brokerage, a Novato-based major deal-maker for wholesale grapes and wines, the California wine industry is searching for a posh land with both similarity and diversity between the North Coast and Central Valley regions.

He said the expiration date at which the industry faced excess supply and fiscal concerns was during the global financial crisis in 2009–2010. On the other hand, the tide situation is tough, as businesses face generational gross sales forecasts that may be additionally muted and they have to adapt to top prices and excess supply.

“Not only do we have different economic challenges, not only do we have a business environment with fear from a financial perspective, but we have a conservative future sales forecast for everything,” Fredericks said.

The industry is grappling with crop harvest results in 2020 and 2021, as well as the impact of the pandemic on sales. Fredericks said wineries will now have to adapt to the greater supply of Cabernet Sauvignon and Pinot Noir, either by providing relief or through greater advertising and marketing and gross sales efforts.

“We have to compete on price. And it’s hard. We need to put more effort into marketing and sales. And we have competitive products that are competing with us. “We’ve got a generational change that is not in our favor right now,” Fredericks said.

Demand conditions don’t appear to be limited to the prevailing top-tier market, as Fredericks noted the Central Valley may face difficulties in this area. And some high-end Napa Valley Cabernet grapes and wines have also seen significant price declines that are no longer subject to reassurance.

Fredericks noted, “Production costs and cultivation costs – everything is much more expensive, whether it makes sense for the grower or not. But there are still a lot of grapes under long-term contracts that are at quite good prices. ”

The business may be struggling with low inventories and gradual resolution of shipments to match shopper demand. Fredericks said it is difficult to determine whether shipments will improve later in the week as data on shipments becomes more limited.

Because trading deals with those difficult situations, Fredericks stressed the importance of adaptation and being careful about overcorrecting. He also expressed surprise at the competitive market and buyer base for some winery plants, which suggests that producers may not have thought at all about market dynamics before making their choices.

Jeff Quackenbush covers wine, construction and real estate. Reach him at jquackenbush@busjrnl.com or 707-521-4256.