As Russia and North Korea move closer, China helps keep them at distance

Beijing – China maintains a “no-border partnership” with Russia and is a very powerful supporter of North Korea. But as its two neighbors – independent of the US and the West – pursue closer ties, Beijing appears to be keeping its distance.

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and Russian President Vladimir Putin shook up global geopolitics last hour by signing a comprehensive strategic partnership assurance that also includes a mutual defense pact that will free both nuclear-armed states from the Cold War. Will bring closer than later.

Putin’s unusual visit to North Korea, his first in 24 years, comes as he seeks better backup from Pyongyang for its conflict in Ukraine. U.S. officials have told NBC News that in exchange for providing Russia with much-needed munitions, North Korea could receive Russian assistance in military production, including guns capable of arming its nuclear, missile and satellite systems. Will happen. Continental United States.

The increase in family members, which Kim has described as an “alliance”, also sends a message to China, North Korea’s biggest lifeline, that Pyongyang has another strong friend in Moscow.

“Kim Jong Un has a lot to gain from this at a strategic level,” said John Delury, a teacher of Chinese language studies at Yonsei College in Seoul. “It gets China’s attention and maybe makes Xi Jinping pay a little more attention to what’s happening across his border.”

The mutual security treaty, which revives the Cold War-era assurance between Russia and North Korea that if either faced “aggression”, every option would be served with military help, comes at a time when This is when China has accused America of colluding with faction-building.

Mavens say the US could respond to the deal by further strengthening its security ties with regional allies South Korea and Japan, which would boost Beijing’s sense of US military overreach in the Asia-Pacific.

In a statement on Sunday, the US, South Korea and Japan said they condemned “in the strongest terms” the growing military cooperation between Russia and North Korea, but they were not hiding from the North’s dialogue.

US and alternative officials are also watching how China responds to Russia’s overtures towards North Korea.

Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Charles Q. “We’ve got someone else who is now meddling, which could lead to a little more confrontation between China and Russia,” Brown Jr. told NewsHound on Sunday. , according to Reuters.

China has made little discussion of the growing relationship between Putin and Kim, President Xi Jinping’s two closest allies, either of whom relies heavily on Beijing for economic and diplomatic backup in the face of global sanctions. Has gone.

A Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman declined to comment on the Russia-North Korea deal on Thursday, saying it was an issue between those two countries.

China, Russia and North Korea are hostile to the US-led world line, which was sharply underlined during Putin’s climate visit to Beijing. However, China is less ostracized globally than the other two countries and is not eager to jeopardize its kinship with Europe, South Korea, Japan and others by becoming part of any trilateral “authoritarian axis”.

“China has been very careful and clear about framing the relationship between the three countries as a bilateral relationship rather than a trilateral relationship,” said Yun Solar, director of the China program at Stimson Hart, a think tank in Washington. “

“China wants to keep its options open rather than fall into the trap of Russia and North Korea.”

Xi has worked carefully to position China as a global partner, pushing hard over the Ukraine war while not condemning Russia’s aggression, which has put him at odds with the West. Unlike North Korea, US officials say there is no evidence that China directly gifted guns to Putin, although several Chinese companies were approved to do business with dual-use parts, including for military programs. Can happen.

Both North Korea and Russia reject the transfer of well-being in Ukraine, which could be a violation of United Nations Security Council resolutions that Russia has supported throughout its life.

Additional instability on the Korean Peninsula could be another headache for Xi, who is already grappling with a financial meltdown as well as a host of domestic problems.

China will also no longer welcome Kim’s advances in nuclear weapons and missile systems, which the Russian generation could help, nor would it like to see South Korea try to build its own nuclear weapons in response to North Korea’s growing ultimatum. Is.

North Korea “could use its ‘generosity’ to ask for some military technology transfers from Russia in return,” said Zhou Bo, a senior fellow at the Center for World Security and Technology at Tsinghua College in Beijing and a retired senior colonel. Chinese Language Population Liberation Army.

“This raises the question of how the situation in Northeast Asia could lead to a chain reaction.”

Putin’s visit to Pyongyang last Wednesday was his second meeting with Kim in a week, after the North Korean leader visited Russia’s Far East in September. Kim and Xi have not met since 2019.

In the month since Putin took the stage on the red carpet at Pyongyang World Airport, where he was welcomed and embraced by Kim, the choreography for the historic meeting was set in motion. As the two leaders greeted officials, talked and exchanged objects, they did not release details on either side.

Putin and Kim also spun the wheel of an Aurus limousine airlifted from Russia for the future in a highly produced “Top Gear”-style video broadcast by North Korean climate media.

It all appears to have been designed to relay a message: that both leaders – mostly away from the stage – were not without friends.

Delury noted, “They are leaning toward each other to a degree not seen in decades and so it tilts all the other balances.”

“China is really wary of what’s happening.”