As Rwanda votes, M23 | Tension deepens with neighboring DR Congo over DR Congo Information about armed teams

As Rwandans head to the polls for presidential and legislative elections, some 9.7 million in the country are casting their votes with leisure and balance. This is a far cry from the devastation the East African country faced during the 1994 genocide against its Tutsi people when President Paul Kagame was the de facto leader for the first time.

Thirty years later, Kagame is facing serious problems in his rule and is predicted to be re-elected for a fourth term. Critics accuse the president of suppressing opposition at the local level. Kagame, on the other hand, may be loved by many Rwandans, young and relative to the grizzled. Many hail the longtime leader as determined to reunify the village closest to the massacre and lead it on the path to economic development.

But, as Kagame seeks re-election, family members’ resentment with Rwanda’s larger neighbor, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), remains a deep challenge for both countries and the broader region, analysts say.

Rising tensions between the two, set to intensify as the United Nations approaches a record deadline for acquittal, have the potential to escalate into a much broader regional war, some worry.

In eastern DRC, M23 rebels, an armed group formed in large parts of Rwanda, are seeking a devastating offensive with the Congolese navy that ended in a massive humanitarian and displacement disaster and further mediation efforts through regional leaders Is.

According to UN professional team records, 3,000 to 4,000 Rwanda Defense Power (RDF) participants are fighting on the M23 in the DRC. A previous UN record accused Kigali of supporting and aiding the M23. However, at this pace, experts said Rwanda is the “de facto” leader of the pack. RDF operations, it said, “extend beyond mere support” though it includes “direct and decisive involvement”. Kigali’s best friend Uganda could be accused of aiding M23’s actions.

Waltino Omolo, a researcher at the Institute for Strategic Research (ISS), advised Al Jazeera the UN record “(potentially) could lead to increased international actions such as economic and diplomatic sanctions against Rwanda”.

The 293-page record of incidents involving the M23, the RDF, and the Congolese army torturing and killing civilians who supported their fighters is true to life. It alleged that gold from mineral-rich eastern DRC was also smuggled into Rwanda and Uganda.

The Rwandan executive did not respond to Al Jazeera’s request for comment on the allegations, although from time to time, within an hour, such allegations have been made unacceptable. Acting spokeswoman Yolanda Makolo, speaking with Newshounds on deadline, did not entirely rule out the RDF’s presence within the DRC, but acknowledged Kinshasa’s support for the anti-Kagame Rwandan rebel group, the Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda (FDLR). Pointed towards.

“The DRC has every power to de-escalate the situation if it wants, but until then, Rwanda will continue to defend itself,” Makolo said.

As conflict between the M23 and Congolese troops continues, approximately two million people have been displaced and scores killed. Therese Kayikwamba Wagner, the DRC’s Minister of International Affairs, has accused Rwanda of exacerbating the “mass displacement crisis”.

“We should be asking ourselves why sanctions are not being imposed on Rwanda for violations on our territory,” Wagner told Al Jazeera.

A vast, intertwined historical past

The three-decade war in eastern DRC is closely linked to the Rwandan genocide, during which participants from the Hutu ethnic group killed approximately 800,000–1 million originally Tutsi people over 100 days in 1994.

Rwanda, along with Uganda, invaded the DRC in 1996 and then again in 1998, giving rise to two Congolese wars. Each claimed to be pursuing rebels hiding in eastern DRC. Kigali used to be the closest Hutu militias who had fled Kagame’s Tutsi forces at the close of the genocide and gathered in refugee camps within the DRC to infiltrate. Then again, Kigali could be accused of using the wars as a pretext to plunder the DRC’s abundant minerals.

Instability in eastern DRC ended with the emergence of a group of armed teams struggling to keep an eye on the mineral-rich region. Along with M23, there are 120 to 140 rebel groups active in the country. The fifteen,000-strong UN peacekeeping challenge, MONUSCO – which has been deployed since 1999 – did not deter the teams. This February, peacekeepers began their withdrawal after an angry President Félix Tshisekedi said they had failed to protect Congolese people.

M23 is the biggest blackmail of Kinshasa these days. When it first emerged in 2012 with brutal pressure, the mob seized control of several areas in the east, including the major city of Goma, the capital of North Kivu province. It claims to fight for the rights of the minority Congolese Tutsis, whose ancestors came from Rwanda in the past. Participants say they face discrimination in the DRC because of their ethnic ties to the Tutsi nation of Rwanda. For example, within an hour local politicians questioned his citizenship. Professionals say the treatment has inspired many to rally behind teams like M23, even as the rebel movements increase negative perceptions of the Tutsis.

The first rebellion of the M23 was defeated. However last 2021, it re-emerged, accusing Kinshasa of reneging on a promise to arm opponents. It now controlled several cities and eventually captured Kanyabayonga, four hours from Goma. The UN said the advance, aided by the RDF, benefited from complex weapons and had grounded all Congolese naval assets.

Victoire Inagbire, a high-profile opposition meat presser from Rwanda, said the UN charges against Rwanda were “appalling” and raised questions for Rwandans.

“Why and under what orders would our troops be sent to fight in the DRC? If this is true… it reinforces the undemocratic process in Rwandan governance that I have always condemned,” Inagbire, who is one of several aspiring presidential candidates banned from Rwandan elections, told Al Jazeera.

Rwandan officials, together with Kagame, continue to advance to Kinshasa to aid the FDLR, a Hutu rebel group fighting alongside the Congolese army. The FDLR and the Nyatura, a group of Hutu militias, are accused of oppressing the Congolese Tutsis.

Rwandan officials have also stated that Kinshasa does not face general discrimination against Tutsis, including hate speech. Tshisekedi said in a statement to the United Nations last week that his government “stands firmly against any individual or group of individuals who would engage in such speech and calls on every individual, organization or external partner to condemn it.” Let us reiterate our request”.

The US has attempted to make inroads, even though this has put Rwanda at odds with its one-time best friend. Some say that when Washington sanctioned a Rwandan general believed to be active in the DRC last August, Kagame promoted him in defiance. Those sanctioned also included a Congo expert and an FDLR chief.

Meanwhile, the regional Jap African Nation (EAC) trade bloc has struggled to mediate. The diversion talks undertaken by it have failed. The Kenya-led EAC intervention came just a week after Tshisekedi requested it not to return in 2022 after it refused to take aggressive steps.

This was changed through pressure from the 2,900-member-strong Southern African Development Nations (SADC). Soldiers in this challenge include peacekeepers from South Africa, Tanzania and Malawi.

Hope for leisure?

In Rwanda, the difficulty around the border is not on the list of key issues for voters on this date. Rising housing prices are of utmost importance for most people as food inflation is rising in the country.

The consequences of violence are not secret, however. During the war, thousands of Congolese were forced to flee their homes into Rwandan cities, further increasing the refugee burden on the small nation.

“War causes loss of human lives and also hampers economic development, especially cross-border trade,” said opposition leader Presser Inagbire.

In Goma, DRC, the number of camps for displaced persons is increasing, as well as the spread of diseases such as measles and cholera. Aid teams have stopped sending food and alternative supplies to M23-controlled towns like Kanyabayonga due to security threats posed by the fighting.

A two-week humanitarian ceasefire from July 4 to July 19 was implemented in the United States to allow humanitarian aid to enter the affected country and allow some displaced persons to return; Nevertheless, the attacks continue.

Despite appeals by the United Nations and the United States to de-escalate tensions, it remains unclear how the two countries will deal with their complex and deep problems. Angola, an emerging US ally, wants to bring Tshisekedi and Kagame to the negotiating table, but that has not happened yet. The African Union (AU) appointed President Joao Lourenco to mediate between the two in 2022.

Last week, as the DRC presidential election campaign was underway, fighting Rwanda was a hot-button issue. In his re-election campaigns, Tshisekedi verbally attacked Kagame, calling him ‘Adolf Hitler’ and describing it as dangerous to drag the war to the doorstep of Kigali.

In his reactions, Kagame has been more gradual, but he said Rwanda was “ready for anything”.

It may be important to address historical ethnic-linked grievances and strengthen foreign missions, as well as non-military solutions within the suffering eastern DRC, ISS’s Omollo said. The AU launched a disarmament and reintegration program for former fighters in 2011. The block said last week it would continue to pursue locally-led entertainment solutions.

Omollo said regional leaders also want to come forward.

“The role of dialogue and diplomatic efforts to de-escalate the situation should be given utmost priority, especially by the EAC. Both countries have more to lose than to gain by pursuing armed conflict. Regional stability remains paramount,” he said.