Behind Modi’s Putin embrace: Is India betting on Trump in November profitable? , narendra modi information

Unused Delhi, India – When Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi meets a male international leader, a hug is almost inevitable. But his final moments with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow have excited corporate crowds from both Washington and Kiev.

In statements issued over several days, US officials criticized Modi’s visit to Russia, the first since Putin declared full-scale war on Ukraine in February 2022.

The United States National Security Assistant cautioned that stronger ties with Russia were a “bad bet” for India. Order segment spokesperson Matthew Miller said the US was busy with the Indian family in Russia. And US Ambassador to India Eric Garcetti warned United Delhi not to rush into its friendship with Washington.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky used to be more direct. He referred to the deadly missile attack on Ukraine’s largest children’s health center shortly before Modi’s visit to Moscow. “To see the leader of the world’s largest democracy embrace the world’s bloodiest criminal in Moscow on such a day is a huge disappointment and a devastating blow to peace efforts,” he wrote on X.

So did India misjudge the geopolitical reaction to Modi’s back-and-forth? Has Bharat’s family’s ties with America broken due to Moscow’s advice and the crowd’s enthusiasm against Putin? And why are relations with Russia so important that India might rush to invest in familial ties with the US in later years?

Analysts say the solution lies in a mix of historical past, untapped Delhi’s confidence in its ability to add more than one advanced family members and a gamble that former US President Donald Trump will likely return to power and the opposition. Will melt Washington’s tough stance. To Russia.

‘My friend Donald Trump’

Later on Saturday, a sniper on a rooftop outside a Trump rally in Pennsylvania shot the former president, killing one and wounding two others, sparking a flood of reactions from around the world.

There was an X-post between the two, from Modi’s side, in which he condemned the attack, calling Trump “my friend”. The two leaders held joint events in Houston and the Indian city of Ahmedabad a few years ago and a senior Indian executive told this essayist that the Modi leadership was increasingly confident that Trump could come back. For energy in November.

The former president is ahead of incumbent Joe Biden in the polls in several influential states and images of Trump later emerged showing him shot, punching in the air, with blood streaks visible on his face, highlighting his eligibility over Biden. Expected to be strong.

“The US presidential election seems certain for Donald Trump and PM Modi will be happy with it,” the Indian source said.

Analysts say Trump’s victory will help India, this strategy is through easing the campaign on unused Delhi to distance itself from Moscow.

“A second Trump administration, almost certainly, would care less about the optics of Russia-India relations,” said Christopher Clary, a staff professor of political science at the University at Albany and a non-resident fellow at Washington-based Stimson Middle. South Asia Programme.

In his first term as president, Trump focused the US strategic focus on Washington’s dispute with Beijing rather than on Moscow – a worldview that is in sync with India. Unprepared Delhi also sees Beijing as its main ultimatum.

an effective stability

To be sure, members of the India-Russia family have a long history of their own. A successor to the Soviet Union, with which India remained close to family members during the Cold War, Russia has maintained ties with unused Delhi.

Traditionally, it has been India’s largest provider of arms and alternative defense equipment – ​​from MIG and Sukhoi fighter aircraft to, more recently, the S-400 anti-missile defense programs.

Since the start of Russia’s war in Ukraine, India has also dramatically increased its purchases of Russian crude. Russia is today India’s largest oil provider and its imports have reduced the total volume of the India-Russia industry – which until recently was around $10 billion – has grown to $63 billion.

In the West, India has faced criticism for oil purchases that – it is alleged – help finance Russia’s conflict. India has shrugged off the complaint and argued that while buying Russian oil is no longer something the West wants, it is actually helping keep global crude prices stable.

On the same date, India has in recent times become doubly concerned about good relations with the West, especially the US, whose support it considers very important to avoid the alleged ultimatum emanating from China’s stance. India’s defense dependence on Russia is decreasing as it buys maximum antique guns from America or European countries.

India has insisted that it is only exercising its strategic democracy. However, speaking at the last moment in the eastern Indian city of Kolkata, US Ambassador Garcetti hit back in relation to the war in Ukraine, saying that “there is no such thing as strategic autonomy during a conflict”.

Modi’s visit to Russia also came shortly before Zelensky landed in Washington, DC, to await the NATO summit. This makes the scenario of a back-and-forth with Modi frightening from the perspective of the US, where Zelensky is treated like a hero, said Seema Sirohi, a Washington, DC-based journalist and analyst.

Has India crossed the ‘red line’?

Russia’s back-and-forth also coincides with alternative sources of friction between India and the US. US prosecutors allege that an Indian executive agent attempted to plot the assassination of Sikh separatist Gurpatwant Singh Pannun, who was a US citizen and held dual Canadian citizenship. In June, the Czech Republic extradited to the US the Indian man who US prosecutors claim wanted to hire a hitman for the job.

In his response in Kolkata, Garcetti mentioned US issues regarding India’s civil jurisdiction – a focus many rights groups have accused critics of the Modi government. The United States Commission on World Spiritual Self-Government (USCIRF) has listed India as a “Country of Special Concern” for the next five years, claiming that uninhabited Delhi is the site of “systematic, ongoing, and serious religious activities.” Is responsible for engaging in and tolerating “violations of freedom”

However, analysts say India and Modi hold a considerable deck of cards to overcome climate-related issues in their relationship.

Clary said those in the US who knew all about the broken aspects of Modi’s Russia mission would have been “at least surprised” by the back-and-forth. “The strategic foundation of the (India-US) relationship is strong and Modi’s visit does not weaken that foundation,” he said.

Days before flying to Moscow, Modi skipped the annual leaders’ summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization led by China and Russia.

The Indian executive, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said the untapped Delhi could be expected to host the Quad summit in the next life. China views the Quad group of democracies in Asia Pacific, made up of Australia, India, Japan and the US, as a challenge to itself.

Close to this life, the Russian city of Kazan will also host the summit of the BRICS group. BRICS, which until recently included Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, has now expanded to include Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Iran, the United Arab Emirates and Ethiopia.

The government official said whether Modi returns to Russia for a second date in three months, or whether he does not attend that meeting, could signal how willing India is to test ties with the US.

For now, Sirohi said, India and the US know they need every additional option they can to boost their partnership.

“New Delhi and Washington will understand each other’s compulsions,” he said, “and the larger US-India relationship is too important to be derailed by a speed bump.”

Or a hug.