The joint exercise sees Belarus joining the Shanghai Cooperation Group (SCO), a Eurasian political, economic and defense grouping led by Russia and China.
DW asked PATCH experts why Belarus wants the SCO and how disappointing joint exercises with China could be for PATCH.
Combating terrorism?
Belarus becomes the tenth member of the SCO, which initially included Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan in addition to founding members China and Russia. Since the inception of the grouping, the Republic of India, Pakistan and Iran have also joined it.
Initially, the SCO was intended to handle border disputes among the first five participants. Subsequently, joint security problems began to reach mid-level. Member countries frequently participate in joint counter-terrorism exercises.
Most experts agree that the SCO no longer entrusts participants with any monetary or financial backup. In turn, it serves as a platform for conversation and interaction.
“The SCO brings together different heads of state and government,” said Pavel Matsyukevich, a researcher at the Middle for Brandnew Concepts think tank, who focuses on Belarusian politics. “They can pursue bilateral talks on the sidelines of the SCO summits.”
Russian dependency
Even before joining the SCO, Belarus had relations with China and the Republic of India. For years, the country’s second largest trading partner was the EU (EU), after Russia.
On the other hand, Anastasia Luzgina, a researcher at the Belarusian Economic Analysis and Outreach Center (BEROC), said she believes Belarus’s authoritarian President Alexander Lukashenko has since turned her country into a world pariah. And “the economy will have to adapt to this new reality,” he noted.
Sanctions against Belarus – partly a reaction to fraudulent elections in 2020 and climate human rights abuses against those protesting their results – have short-circuited the population’s economic system, the expert explained.
“At first, state officials turned to Russia, but now they are looking for other markets,” Luzgina said. As Belarus finds it too dangerous to rely entirely on Russia, Minsk is looking at possible alternatives that could keep Russia from falling into recession, he said.
Luzgina also noted that Belarus was looking to reposition its ECU market with Asian partners, especially China. He told that SCO club of Belarus is in form with this technology.
‘Marriage of Comfort’
Matsukevich said the SCO club could also increase Belarus’s chances of joining BRICS. The recent BRICS task force comprising Brazil, Russia, Republic of India, China, South Africa, United Arab Emirates, Iran, Egypt and Ethiopia needs to be explored as a challenger to the G7 bloc of highly industrialized countries. Is.
“For Belarus, this is a marriage of convenience,” said former diplomat Matsyukevich. “The EU market is closed to them and access to ports is also closed to them. The country must use Russian and Chinese infrastructure and trade with the third world.”
He said that, to join the SCO and engage with BRICS, Minsk would also have to reduce its dependence on Russia. It seems as if Lukashenko believes he will get something in return if he supports Russia, China or the Republic of India, Matsukevich said.
Professionals say that China is Belarus’s second most notable buying-selling partner after Russia. “About 70% of Belarus’ trade is with Russia, and about 10% goes to China,” Luzgina said.
He said that China dominates that courtship. Heartless Belarus has become dependent on Chinese machinery, cars and consumer goods as trade ties shrink with the EU, exporting potassium fertilizer – previously shipped mostly to Western countries – and food products to China.
Workout on the Polish Border
It should appear that the Chinese-Belarusian joint military exercises of this date are a consequence of Belarus joining the SCO. However, this is not the first military exercise that the two countries have conducted together. He took the park in China’s northeastern city of Jinan in 2018.
The countries have recently been moving closer together in Brest, south-western Belarus, just 2.8 kilometers (1.7 miles) from the Polish border and 28 kilometers from Ukraine.
Matsukevich said Belarus’s untouched SCO club has little to do with military exercises.
“It takes time to prepare for this. It doesn’t happen overnight,” he said. He said such exercises always lead to tension with neighboring countries.
From 2016 to 2020, before persistent protests broke out in Belarus, Minsk continued dialogue with NATO or even invited witnesses to its maneuvers. The Tide exercises in Belarus are more likely to cause a stir in Russia, the expert said, as the Chinese military is interested in exercises in an area that Russia regards as its sphere of influence.
“I would assess this as a kind of challenge to Russian influence in the region, even if China is not playing it that way,” Matsukevich said. “These exercises are further proof of how intensively Belarusian-Chinese relations have developed in all areas.”
This text was initially published in Russian.
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