Breakout candidate at quarterback for 2024

, choose between Will Lewis And bryce young, Both have a chance, but only one gets the nod for a true breakout season in 2024.

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Estimated reading time: 9 minutes

Every season, there are players who take their game to another level and drastically improve their fantasy production as well. It may be a tough task at quarterback with fewer options fitting the criteria throughout the league, but for the 2024 season, there are two, in particular, that stand out.

Some qualifiers before considering this year’s candidates

• Quarterback must not exceed 250 fantasy points – Finished as a QB1/high-end QB2 in any previous season.
• Expect a significant jump in overall fantasy finishes or fantasy points per game, not just incremental improvement.
• Not a newbie. Let’s make things even more challenging than that. A list of newcomers who made a fantasy impact in Year 1 can be found Here,

Here is a list of players from the last decade who fit the above criteria before delivering their breakout season:

Anthony Richardson, indianapolis colts

Easily one of the most obvious options at all positions, currently being drafted as the QB6, Richardson showed high-level fantasy potential on a very small sample size in Year 1 due to injury. That high-level fantasy production as a rookie came almost entirely from his running ability, which accounted for 52.4% of his total fantasy points – the most among any player at the position. Richardson averaged 5.8 tackles per game last season with fewer than 100 total dropbacks and a scramble rate of −7.1% on 200 total snaps. He also scored four rushing touchdowns in his limited appearances last season, taking 57% of his go-to carries when he was on the field.

Richardson has major comparisons to previous breakout quarterbacks. jalen hurts In 2021, Joe only had a small four-game sample of the season before his breakout year. In the opening four games to end his rookie season, Hurts had an average run rate of 17%, slightly higher than Richardson’s 13.3% over four appearances. Hurts and Richardson also have the same head coach, Shane Steichen, who advises them to become NFL starters. Both players were considered projects coming out of college, and given Steichen’s success in Hearts’ development, there are high expectations he can do the same with Richardson throughout the season.

Maintaining its unique high-speed production

Richardson’s 13.3% run Last season the rate ranked among the top rushing quarterbacks, including Hurts (13.7%), lamar jackson (13.5%) and Justin Fields (14.5%). This is Richardson’s biggest asset in becoming a breakout quarterback in 2024 and meeting that QB6 ADP. There’s no doubt that the run will continue to be a big part of Richardson’s game, and if he can stay healthy while doing so, he’ll have no trouble scoring over 20 fantasy points per game like the rest of the field. Elite fantasy quarterbacks.

improving as a passer

The area where Richardson may stand to improve the most from what was expected coming out of college is as a passer. The qualifying breakout quarterback since 2014, Richardson’s sub-60.0 passing grade from last season joins trevor lawrence, jalen hurts And Jared Goff, For all three players, the new and improved coaching staff played a major role in their improvement, as Lawrence and Goff got new head coaches, while Hurts got a new offensive coordinator, Richardson’s current head coach, Shane Steichen.

Richardson has a strong arsenal to rely on in the passing game, including the No. 1 wide receiver Michael Pittman Jr.Who commanded a career-high 150 goals in 2023 and will be hungry for more in 2024. Along with the second-year wide receiver’s continued improvement. josh downs And with an exciting new weapon coming from the draft in Adonai Mitchell, there are pieces in place for Richardson to use, helping to further his passing production. His 144.3 passing yards per game last season were the lowest mark in the league last year among starters, but his wide receivers should help as they no longer have one of the most barren rooms in the league.

He should be healthy!

Richardson is expected to make a full recovery after undergoing season-ending shoulder surgery last season. He began throwing again in February and has apparently come back to being “full” in training camp, which is exactly what news fantasy managers need. However, Richardson will have to maintain that health throughout the season, as his tendency to take big hits in college carried over to the NFL. Hopefully, he’ll use that Year 1 as a lesson learned and be a lot less reckless this upcoming season.

Anthony RichardsonQB ranks in 2023:

Will Lewis, tennessee titans

Lewis, like Richardson, did not get a full season as a rookie, though at least not due to injury. As a second-round pick, Lewis spent the first half of last season hacking away at the starter Ryan Tannehill Before the situation changes. Lewis took over in Week 8. Things started out great for Lewis, as he threw four passing touchdowns in his first NFL start, but ultimately ended up accounting for 50% of his passing touchdowns through all nine of his starts the rest of the year.

Brian Callahan has taken over as head coach of the Titans and is expected to help repair one of the biggest issues Lewis faced last year – a heavy reliance on low-percentage throws. Lewis’s 11.1-yard average depth of target last season was the highest in the NFL, and significantly higher than what Coach Tannehill was having when he was the starter (8.4). For Lewis and the new coaching staff, the focus should be on high-percentage completions so he can properly develop after his 57 20-plus-yard throws were 14th most in the league. CJ Stroud, Who played six more games and had almost twice as many dropbacks.

That said, one thing that will help Lewis this season will be his improved receiving corps. calvin ridley And tyler boyd attend deandre hopkinsThat moved the Titans from a ranking of 30th in PFF’s receiving corps to 2023. Moving towards 12th in 2024,

improving as a passer

Lewis doesn’t necessarily have to trust that the bulk of his fantasy production is going to come from staying in the pocket and throwing passing yards and touchdown passes. A new offensive-minded head coach in Brian Callahan will play a big role in that development, and he should focus on more high-completion passes for Lewis this season. As previously highlighted, Lewis’ reliance on the deep ball had reduced his accuracy and production to such an extent that if a game asked him to throw for at least 10 yards, he would fail to do so. were launching an average of 23 yards – the second highest minimum ADoT on throws 10-plus yards downfield. As a result, his overall 69.1% adjusted completion rate ranked 42nd among 45 qualifying quarterbacks.

In addition to coaching, Ridley and Boyd are going to play a big role in allowing Lewis to have more success and produce as a passer, relying on his new arsenal of passing weapons at Hopkins. Each of these players offers a versatile skill set that opens them up to different areas of the field and provides easy targets for Lewis to throw to, especially when compared to when he only had Hopkins last season. A strong receiving corps has been vital for any non-rushing breakout quarterback of the last decade. Only trevor lawrenceThe 2022 unit earned a sub-75.0 receiving grade (71.0). If everyone stays healthy Lewis should be considered one of the best receiving units in those past breakouts, which can only help his potential in 2024.

Touchdown

The Titans ranked 27th in touchdown drive percentage (16.2%) between Weeks 8–17 when Lewis was the starter last season, which was also below their 17.1% touchdown drive percentage (22nd) when he was not the starter. An improved offense should make a significant difference as Brian Callahan’s aggressive approach will help get the most out of the offensive weapons, perhaps more so than the team under Mike Vrabel in years past.

The offensive line was also slightly upgraded from the previous season, as it was one of the team’s biggest weaknesses, allowing the highest knockdown rate in the league (24.8%) and ranking among the six worst teams in sacks. (64), pass-blocking grade (53.4) and passing success rate (33.4%). Not being under constant pressure – Lewis missed 44.5% of his dropbacks (third most) – will also help lead to longer drives and more success at the end of those drives.

Player who was considered but didn’t fit the mold

bryce young, carolina panthers

Improvement should be expected in Year 2 for the 2023 first overall pick, but that doesn’t mean it will qualify as a true breakout in terms of fantasy production. Young, like Lewis, is coming off an inefficient, unproductive rookie season. Although Lewis’ circumstances are still much better than Young’s, especially with the receiving corps, he has shown more from a fantasy standpoint than Young in 15 games last season.

Young has some things to improve on this season, including dionte johnson As their top receiver, they also have an arguably better offensive line than Lewis while at Tennessee. Another thing that could help Young is less reliance on the pass after the Panthers finished 10th in the league in passing rate (63.6%) last season, and have been among every breakout of the past decade that has seen a new Head coach Mila, they all noticed a significant drop in pass rate next year, which could be a key to development and ease the burden on Young.

Breakout QBs from the last decade who got new coaches for their breakout seasons:

Ultimately, Young’s 2023 was more discouraging overall than we expected, with not enough real data and numbers to encourage the significant improvement needed, even if Some? Improvements are expected. Lewis was found to be more worthy of the nod as a breakout candidate heading into 2024.

Heading to Lewis vs. Young in 2024: