China is testing the limits of the US-Philippines security agreement

According to policy analysts, China has increased its aggression against the Philippines in the disputed waters of the South China Sea, raising questions about the strength of US deterrence.

Later, according to Philippine officials, the Chinese coast guard seized two Filipino ships on a resupply project at an outpost at Second Thomas Shoal in the Spratly Islands, seriously injuring one of the servicemen., Sholl is accused by both Manila and Beijing.

This section has seen several clashes in the last months. Mavens say the latest incident reflects an escalation and presents constraints on the US-Philippines Mutual Protection Treaty signed in 1951.

“The MDT’s failure to prevent (the latest confrontation) reflects the ambiguity in both sides’ stated commitments,” said Chester Cabalza, president and founder of the World Construction and Safety Cooperation, a Philippines-based think tank.

The latter life, the Philippines and the US immunity brand new “bilateral defense guidelines”, reaffirming that an “armed attack” within the South China Sea on Filipino vessels would invoke US mutual security duties.

China, for its part, has been careful not to cause MDT by downplaying the importance of weapons, instead using “gray zone” methods – acts of coercion that are part of an armed conflict – 2D Thomas On the shoal. They have reportedly integrated H2O cannons and the importance of percussion into Philippine boats.

Beijing’s movements are trying to put a stop to resupply missions to the rusted Philippine ship that has been anchored off the coast since 1999, as the life there appears to lend credibility to the Philippines’ claim to the reef.

According to Cabalza, unless Manila and Washington do more to increase deterrence, Beijing will continue to use “grey zone” methods in its goal of conquering the shoals and alternative grounds contested by the Philippines.

“If the US is serious about helping the Philippines in a strategic and asymmetric war with China then the use of these tactics should be classified as an armed attack (in the MDT),” he said.

An expanded definition of “armed attack” within the treaty includes “any intentional act intended to cause harm or any act likely to cause lethal consequence to a Filipino,” said Richard Heidarian, policy assistant and senior instructor of global affairs at the College of the Philippines. may involve.

Those guidelines are consistent with the MDT’s translation in a file from the US Indo-Pacific Command that was declassified in its final life.

On the other hand, according to Heydarian, the Philippines’ muted response to the last-ditch attacks is generally indicative of its apprehensions regarding the implementation of the mutual security treaty.

“The Philippine government faces a big dilemma. It wants more reassurance from the United States, but it probably isn’t getting it, and it also wants to avoid unwanted tensions,” Heydarian said.

He said, “It is extremely important for the Philippines and the US to signal that Filipino troops are authorized and approved to use live firearms to defend themselves, and that China’s use of live firearms will immediately trigger the MDT.”

On the other hand, according to Abdul Rahman Yacob, analytical fellow at the Lowy Institute’s Southeast Asia Program, the US is not going to expand the scope of the security agreement, because doing so could involve them in a more widespread military conflict.

According to Matteo Piacentini, China and Indo-Pacific analyst at Geopolitica, the Philippines may also consider increasing its individual deterrence and tactics in declaring its territorial claims, amid “serious assessments on the threat of US non-involvement”. Let’s say Italian tank.

Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. said Thursday that the latest incident off the coast was no longer an “armed attack” and that the country should do “more” besides confronting China’s actions.

“The Philippines will continue to resupply the Sierra Madre, and is expected to invest in more outposts in its exclusive economic zone in the South China Sea… There is no illusion that China will concede defeat; Manila is trying to What he’s doing is not giving up on himself,” Passantini noted.

The Philippines defense chief has reiterated that the military will no longer announce its resupply missions to Shoal Inn Exit. According to the Lowy Institute’s Yacob, this has the potential to help Beijing avoid direct confrontation.

The country is also working to strengthen its defense operations in the South China Sea with the help of the US

Second, Thomas Sholl is emblematic of how powerful powers are becoming more involved in the security architecture in Asia, with states like the Philippines increasingly turning to the US and alternative powers to bolster deterrence and security, according to Geopolitica’s Passantini. Are. ,

“Not intervening (if China becomes more aggressive) would be a huge blow not only to US-Philippines relations, but also to relations between the US and other key regional allies,” he said.

From China’s perspective, the shoal represents its ability to enforce territorial claims under its “9-dash line” and delegitimize decisions of organizations such as UNCLOS, which led to the second Thomas Shoal in 2016 coming under Philippine self-rule. , experts told CNBC. ,

It also requires the US to cancel the use of the Philippines as a key part of the “First Island Chain” – a chain of islands encompassing Japan, Taiwan, the Philippines and parts of Indonesia – to achieve Can be considered strategically noteworthy. of the PLA, researcher Muhammad Faisal noted.

Singapore based S. “Every ally and partner is probably looking at how committed the US really is to its military alliances and making plans for what to do if that commitment fails,” said the analysis fellow at the Rajaratnam College of World Research.