China is watching with alert eyes due to the formation of old ‘alliance’ between Putin and Kim

Essayist’s Information: Add Meanwhile CNN’s publication in China Which explores what you want to understand about the emergence of the nation and how it affects the region.

hong kong
cnn
,

As Russian President Vladimir Putin drove through the crowded streets of Pyongyang in a luxury Mercedes-Benz with his North Korean host Kim Jong Un, the two dictators’ most estranged wives watched from the sidelines several miles away. . in Beijing.

Five years ago, Xi Jinping was offered a similar open-top experience with Kim when he became the first Chinese leader to hold talks with Pyongyang in 14 years. Meanwhile, the two leaders vowed to strengthen ties and deepen cooperation, but the language paled in comparison to the “breakthrough” ancient partnership between Kim and Putin.

In a comprehensive pact involving political, industry, financing and security cooperation, North Korea and Russia pledged to use all available methods to provide immediate military assistance in the event the other is attacked.

Putin said Russia and North Korea had taken relations to a “new level”. Meanwhile, Kim called the ancient “alliance” a “watershed moment” in the bilateral family.

The age-old historic defense pact between the two nuclear-armed regimes irked the United States and its Asian allies. Japan expressed “serious concerns” about Putin’s pledge not to include cooperation with Pyongyang in military buildup. South Korea responded by calling an emergency national security meeting and said it might now consider sending arms to Ukraine.

In contrast, the response from China, the main political and economic patron for both Russia and North Korea, has been almost muted.

A spokesman for China’s Overseas Ministry declined to comment on the treaty, calling it a bilateral matter between Russia and North Korea.

Still, China is likely watching cautiously, under professional reticence, analysts say.

The deepening ties between the two autocratic rulers is likely to increase skepticism for Xi, who seeks change and stability in Northeast Asia as he grapples with demanding conditions at home, particularly a slowing economy.

Beijing is concerned that Moscow’s support for Pyongyang – particularly on military production – will further allow and embolden the erratic Kim regime, which has significantly accelerated its accumulation of nuclear guns and missile systems, said a researcher specializing in Chinese politics. said associate coach Liu Dongshu at Hong Kong Town College.

“When it comes to the North Korea issue, China aims to control the situation and prevent tensions from escalating, but it also does not want North Korea to completely collapse” – a position that Beijing Fears that America will be allowed to increase its control. Its door, Liu noted.

Until now, Russia has largely aligned with China on this issue, but its steadfast willingness to support North Korea in its fierce war in Ukraine risks undermining peaceful stability.

According to US observation in February, Russia has received more than 10,000 delivery boxes – or 260,000 metric tons of munitions or munition-related materials – from North Korea since September. Both Russia and North Korea have called this claim unacceptable.

And the US has accused China of offering dual-use goods to Russia that strengthen the warring People’s Army commercial complex, Beijing has avoided providing direct military aid to Putin and Suni has been criticized over Kim’s nuclear and Advised to support missile systems.

“If Putin provides more support to North Korea on nuclear issues, including some technical assistance, it will become more difficult for China to control the situation on the Korean Peninsula,” Liu said.

The mutual defense agreement signed by Kim and Putin is reminiscent of the 1961 treaty between North Korea and the Soviet Union during the Cold War. That agreement was replaced with one that offered much weaker security pledges after the collapse of the Soviet Union.

However, North Korea’s mutual security treaty with China, which was also signed in 1961, remains in limbo after more than one renewal.

The China–North Korea Treaty of Friendship, Cooperation and Mutual Support is the only formal military alliance treaty that China has signed with any other country, even though Beijing does not acknowledge it as such and remains deliberately vague about it. Whether China is obliged to do so or not. They routinely come under North Korean protection when conflict erupts.

Similarly, it is still opaque what Russia and North Korea are prepared to do – and are willing – to do for each other under the ancient defense agreement.

The ancient pact comes amid rising tensions on the Korean Peninsula, where Kim has stepped up fiery rhetoric and ended a long-standing policy of seeking peaceful reunification with South Korea. Following the end of the Korean War in 1953, a formal deconfliction treaty was never signed between the two Koreas, leaving them technically in a state of war.

However, the political message of the agreement is warm and bright. Driven by a shared hostility toward the US and its allies, both autocratic countries are seeking to weaken and create a backup to the Western-led international chain – an objective shared by China.

After his meeting with Kim, Putin referred to “the imperialist policy of the United States and its satellites.”

A generation ago, Putin and Xi took respective digs at the US during the Russian premier’s talks with Beijing. In a wide-ranging joint observation, the two “old friends” clashed over what they described as an international security apparatus defined by US-backed military alliances – and promised to work together to counter it.

Western witnesses have warned against a decline into the growing coordination of interests between China, Russia, North Korea and Iran – with a senior US military commander recently likening it to an ancient “axis of evil”.

As Moscow and Pyongyang deepen their alliance, Beijing may be careful to keep a distance, Liu said, adding, “China certainly does not want to be seen as part of a new axis.”

However, despite Xi’s absence, China would have been the elephant in the room when Putin and Kim met.

“Any such meeting will also include a discussion of China,” said Edward Howell, a schoolmaster of politics at Oxford College in the UK who specializes in the Korean Peninsula.

“Russia will be well aware that China does not want to be left out of any important negotiations involving North Korea, especially since China is far more important to North Korea than Russia is.”

Yun Soler, director of the China program at the Washington-based Stimson Center think tank, said China does not feel it can control the duration and extent of deepening ties between Russia and North Korea.

“But they know that China plays an irreplaceable role for both Russia and North Korea,” he said.

China remains the largest industry partner for both Russia and North Korea, providing a vital lifeline to the highly sanctioned economies. Beijing also provides vital political support and diplomatic protection to the two global pariahs.

“China does not think an alliance between Russia and North Korea would be a betrayal,” said Liu of Hong Kong’s Town College.

“Neither of the two countries has the capacity to deceive China. Despite the alliance, they still need to trust China.