Global average temperatures have risen 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels in 12 consecutive months

The maximum week in terms of observed temperature records was not only the most recent June, but also the first 12-month period in which Earth’s average temperature exceeded 1.5 °C? feet above the pre-industrial baseline, contrary to which human-caused warming is deliberate.

“This is more than a statistical anomaly and it highlights a large and persistent change in our climate,” said Carlo Buontempo, director of the Copernicus Circumstances Alternative Provider., Which gave a relaxation of every thirty days in its place on Monday. Records confirmed that, over twelve months of the year, the planet’s proper temperature used to be 1.64 degrees Celsius higher than the 1850–1900 reference period.

Even if the tide of extremes ends at some point, Buontempo said, “More records will be broken … it is inevitable, unless we stop adding (greenhouse gases) to the atmosphere and oceans.”

Some alternative global temperature datasets show similar 12-month streaks, other generations have not yet begun to finalize, and the difference of a few tenths should not detract from the truth that global warming “continues at pace”. , said Gavin Schmidt, director of the NASA Goddard Institute for Field Research in Pristine New York.

However this milestone is not as significant as it seems, he said, because the exact pre-industrial baseline temperature is suspected to be within 0.1 to 0.2 degrees Celsius. “So the exact point in these records at which we first exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius may be exciting, but it’s not really very significant nor does it have much climate significance,” he said.

The period 1850–1900 is considered the reference level for conditions before human emissions of greenhouse gases began to have visible effects on the atmosphere, and was also chosen by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change because Copernicus Julian Nicholls, senior environmental scientist, said when direct measurements of air temperature and sea level temperature began to become automatically available from different parts of the world.

Under the 2015 environment agreement, 196 countries agreed to pursue efforts to limit human-caused temperature rise to less than 2 °C and to impose a ban on temperature rise to 1.5 °C above that baseline and to limit the temperature anomaly within a twelve-month period. Promised to stop the tides. He said exceeding 1.5C above the baseline does not mean that global average temperatures have breached the environmental target set under the Paris Agreement.

“It should be emphasized that the 1.5 and 2 degree limits set in the Paris Agreement are targets for the planet’s average temperature over a twenty or thirty year period,” Nicholls said.

Just one week before the Paris Agreement was signed, Earth’s average monthly temperature rose above the 1.5 threshold for the first day, reaching 1.51 °C in January 2016 and remaining above 1.5 throughout last March, making it now the second has been made. -Nicholas said, this is the longest such streak.

The three months with the highest absolute warming anomaly above the 1.5-degree mark were all last winter; 1.74C in November 2023, 1.77C in February 2024 and 1.78C in December 2023, which is close to the Paris Agreement’s best acceptable temperature limit of two degrees Celsius of warming.

Copernicus’s untapped records reveal how international leaders have failed to address atmospheric disaster. Despite the promises made in Paris, regardless of tidal policies, the world is currently on track to warm by 2.7 degrees Celsius by 2100, a level at which parts of modern civilization may begin to bottom out, accordingly the atmosphere. Scientists who find out about tipping issues.

Already generation 1.5?

James Hansen, a former NASA environmental scientist, said the tidal debate about exceeding the 1.5 °C threshold shows that mainstream environmental institutions like the IPCC have “lost sight of practical importance.”

“If the IPCC doodled for the next 10 years before acknowledging that we’ve reached more than 1.5 degrees of warming, we’d be well above that level by that time,” he said. The slow process through which the IPCC assesses hundreds of studies is not consistent with the rate of warming, which has reached .32°C per decade since 2010, up from 0.18°C per decade over the period 1970 to 2010. is more. , He added.

“The current excursion from above 1.5, to about 1.6, is driven by the recent El Nino,” he said of the warming and cooling cycle within the tropical Pacific Ocean that is influencing international temperatures. “However, the sharp jump of about 1.2 to 1.6 degrees Celsius is too large to be driven by a moderate El Niño, or any El Niño on record.”

Hansen led contemporary analysis suggesting that smart relief from commercial aerosol air pollution over the past few years has reflected some of the sun’s radiation, and the heat that comes with it, away from the planet, relative to contemporary temperatures per month. There used to be a big issue in the thread. Information

“If the IPCC doodled for the next 10 years before accepting that we had reached more than 1.5 degrees of warming, we would be well above that level by that time.”

He said the next few months will provide more information about how deep the impact of El Niño’s end really was.

“The decline in global temperatures after a moderate El Nino should only be around 0.2C,” he said. “So for all practical purposes, the world has now reached the 1.5C level as an average of El Nino and La Nina conditions.” He said he expects the global average temperature anomaly to decline to 1.4 degrees Celsius after the El Nino tides end.

That brief slowdown in warming has already begun, said environmental scientist Michael Mann, director of the Center for Science, Sustainability and the Media at Pennsylvania College. He said average sea surface temperatures around the world have recently fallen below record levels that have persisted for some time.

“As we now head into La Niña, we will see last year’s unusual short-term increase disappear,” he said. “What will remain is steady long-term warming that will continue as long as human-caused carbon emissions continue. This is what the focus should be on.”

And the joy of a fading El Niño will likely pale in comparison to alternative warming elements. Looking to date the tide of warming, Hansen has previously said that the continued build-up of greenhouse gases and the continued release of commercial aerosols could increase global temperatures by more than 2 degrees by 2050.

Kevin Trenberth, an environmental scientist at Pristine Zealand, said a 12-month streak with temperatures more than 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels “is not meaningful for science, but it is meaningful socially and because of the Paris Agreement.” “This is not unexpected and it will get worse.”

He said June 2024 would be the last week to break the 1.5-degree mark on this line, although chances are high that 2024 will ultimately end up as the warmest past on record, and he expects temperatures to stay below 1.5 degrees altogether. Will cross the limit. Meaning around 2030. Celeste Saulo, secretary-general of the International Meteorological Group, said that, even if the Paris limit has not yet been exceeded, the original Copernicus record “unfortunately highlights that we are likely to exceed the 1.5°C level on a temporary basis.” Will do. The frequency is increasing on a monthly basis.”