Hezbollah’s plans, Israel’s warning – are the two sides in conflict? , Israel-Palestine War Information

Beirut, Lebanon – Hezbollah is preparing for a variety of scenarios as a low-level war between it and Israel risks turning into something bigger.

Fueling the notion of Israel shifting military focus from Gaza to Lebanon were statements from officials including Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who said on Sunday that Israel was ceasing uncontrolled operations in Rafah and redirecting toward Lebanon. Could.

Serious Israeli military action against Lebanon would draw regional and perhaps world actors into the mix.

Israeli attacks have displaced approximately 100,000 families from their homes in south Lebanon and killed at least 435 families, about 349 of them named by Hezbollah as its own individuals.

Hezbollah appears to be sticking to its weapons, as well as countering Israeli rhetoric with its own, and intensifying its cross-border attacks – according to Israel, 15 Israeli troops and 10 civilians have been killed so far. Are.

According to the AFP news agency, both were carrying out attacks along the border as Israel declared war on Gaza on October 7, a month after a Hamas-led operation in Israel killed 1,139 families.

truce or cover up

Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah has reiterated in speeches since October that his team will stop cross-border attacks on Israel only if there is unanimity for an eventual Gaza ceasefire.

Despite the fact that Israel transfers the majority of its forces to Lebanon, analysts believe that Hezbollah will hold its position.

“I don’t think Hezbollah will accept (negotiations) in the absence of a ceasefire (in Gaza),” said Amal Saad, author of two books on Hezbollah. “The conflict will likely continue.

“Nasrallah has said that they will keep fighting until Hamas is victorious and that if Hamas is weakened, Hezbollah will not sit idly by,” he said.

“There is a strategic objective here… Hezbollah will not leave Hamas to fend for itself.”

Speculation about a ceasefire appears to be hitting a wall as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s hardline coalition partners have called for the “complete defeat of Hamas” before an end to the conflict.

On the other hand, some Israeli officials have expressed skepticism about the idea of ​​complete defeat of Hamas, underscoring that Hamas is a concept and concepts cannot be eliminated.

Military spokesman Daniel Hagari expressed such skepticism on June 19, shortly after Speed ​​National Security Council head Tzachi Hanegbi said the same thing on Tuesday.

Whether in tacit acceptance of that idea or for alternative issues, Israel is now talking about a low-intensity phase, through which, it claims, its forces will continue to target Hamas in Gaza in search of political extras. Will keep. Crowd inside the enclave.

A low-intensity conflict in Gaza would, in theory, allow a focal point on Lebanon – even if it would require the Israeli military to eliminate the daunting prospect of engaging on two fronts.

projected energy

For his section, Nasrallah is showing the strength of his team and the status of the company.

On June 19, he said that his team has more than 100,000 fighters and that several heads of regional armed groups have offered additional fighters to join the fight against Israel, given that Hezbollah is already “overwhelmed” with cadres. yes.

A month before its announcement, Hezbollah pardoned drone photographs taken over the Israeli city of Haifa, an implicit warning that the city could be targeted.

Some other fresh video from Hezbollah confirmed what appeared to be a line of targets inside Israel and the Mediterranean Sea.

Imad Salami, a political scientist at the Lebanese American University, said, “Hezbollah is showing and simulating Israel its options for widening the war… (This will make Israel) understand that the consequences will be seriously costly.” ”

Nasrallah also threatened Cyprus, an island that is within the European Union but not NATO, should it support Israel in a war.

Cyprus replied that it no longer cooperates militarily with Israel in any conflict.

“Since October 8, Cyprus has been a major location where Israeli reservists take off and then fly to Israel,” Seth Krumrich, a former special forces officer who is now at the World Maternal Accident Control Company, told Al Jazeera.

Israel currently has the Old Cyprus location for training exercises.

The warning was Nasrallah’s way of “signaling to the EU to refrain from supporting Israel in any way that could entrap (its) member states,” Salami said.

contingency plans

As both sides move forward and lay cards on the table, Hezbollah may have some contingency plans.

“Hezbollah probably has a strategy ready in the event of a limited, prolonged war in southern Lebanon, and they probably also have a strategy ready in the event of a broader full-scale war,” said Karim Emil Bitar, World Family schoolmaster. ” College Saint Joseph in Beirut is mentioned.

A restricted conflict could be what Salami has called “low-intensity asymmetric conflict warfare” that “drains the enemy’s blood through low-cost, efficient and effective skirmishes” – essentially a continuation of wave warfare.

A full-scale war could escalate attacks throughout Lebanon, including attacks on infrastructure such as Beirut’s airport, as Israel did in 2006.

Some analysts believe that a restricted invasion of South Lebanon is possible, although this would result in heavy casualties on both sides.

For Bitar, Hezbollah probably no longer needs that option. “Hezbollah, as well as the Iranian regime, realize that (escalation) would be extremely risky and disastrous for Lebanon,” he said.

Sharp warnings and military activities are running parallel to diplomatic talks.

US special envoy Amos Hochstein was recently in Tel Aviv and Beirut, where he reportedly passed messages to Hezbollah through the Lebanese parliament speaker and Hezbollah’s best friend, Nabih Berri.

According to unnamed Western diplomats who spoke to Axios, Hochstein told Hezbollah it would be a mistake to think the United States could stop Israel from starting a broader war.

At the same time, Hezbollah and Israel are sending messages through French diplomats, Bitar said, looking for “a face-saving exit or strategy.”

If those talks could “provide assurances to Israel that Hezbollah’s allies will not be present within 6–10 km (4–6 mi) of the border and that they (Hezbollah’s elite) will have no intention of using Radwan forces.” The intention is not to attack Israel” Hochstein’s efforts may bear fruit, Bitter said.

The parallel tracks of international relations and military action are interconnected.

However, the oft-repeated fear is that miscalculation could escalate tensions and neither side would need to give its combatants a chance to claim a moral victory.

Yet a conflict could be avoided, barring a miscalculation or political choice by Israel as to domestic issues going forward.

For its part, Hezbollah does not accept a ceasefire as its only condition for stopping the fighting.

“We are in a situation where domestic political considerations dominate on both sides,” Bitter said.

“Hezbollah is aware that the majority of Lebanese, including a significant portion of their own supporters, do not want a new war,” he said.

“Both sides are taking these factors into account, however we are in a situation that is extremely volatile and any miscalculation by either side could lead to a new full-scale conflict (escalated conflict) in the region. ”