How help is running out for Britain’s Conservative birthday celebrations

The Conservatives have ruled British politics for 14 years, holding on to power through near-disaster, including some of their own making.

Now, as disaffected Britons prepare to head to the polls, the Conservatives are fearing irrelevance. Polls suggest they could possibly amass their lowest percentage of seats in Parliament in a century.

Over the next 5 stormy years of his presidency, his bottom broke.

Some are moving to the left, with the party trailing Labor on issues in 20 rounds of voting. Others are noting the trap of hard morality, including the fact that a third of Britons who voted for the Conservative Party have taken their own lives and are now declaring that they will vote against anti-immigration reforms led by Nigel Farage. Will support the party.

Polls show that the effects of the election could be devastating for conservatives. As the election approaches, current polling has gradually declined, with little sign of improvement in Conservative fortunes.

Here are some of the major reasons:

Voters actually think the country is worse off

Many citizens say they feel the Conservative Party has left Britain in a worse place than before it came to power.

The promise to finalize Brexit, which took Britain out of the European Union, was a huge vote winner for the Conservatives in the last election. Britons now have alternative ideas. In this life, they are saying, the most important problems are the financial system and state aid adopted through immigration. And Citizens believe Labor is best placed to retain all three, according to a YouGov poll.

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s predecessor, Liz Truss, led a financial disaster, after which she introduced schemes of tax cuts, deregulation and borrowing.

Seventy-five million countries are expecting alternative aid from the national carrier, which is 5 million more than when the Conservatives took power in 2010.

And despite conservative commitments to free up immigration, internet migration reached an all-time peak in 2023.

The Conservatives’ loss of self-confidence to deal with those problems has been followed by a period of rapid change and upheaval.

Conservatives made deep spending cuts near the 2009 monetary disaster, arguing that austerity would fix the crowded budget. Prime Minister David Cameron became famous over the divisive Brexit referendum in 2016, and came close to resigning.

Since the election ended, the federal government has had to grapple with COVID-19, power shortages caused by Russia’s reduced fuel supplies to Europe and high inflation. It has also progressed through a series of self-inflicted crises, through three Prime Ministers and five Chancellors who are responsible for fiscal policy.

The Conservatives’ most valuable citizens are abandoning them.

More than half of the country who voted for the Conservatives in the last election informed pollsters that they now planned to vote for a different party.

The citizens who say they are going to leave the Conservatives probably come with the party’s most valuable supporters.

Over the past few decades, the year has changed importance as a primary predictor of political support in Britain, with the Conservatives having more used it. At the last election, the year in which someone was more likely to vote Conservative than Labor was or used to be, more or less, 40.

Now, polling means the Conservatives are leading the Party of the Year: the over 65 nation.

Conservative applicants could be burning in Britain’s youngest boxes, in line with YouGov’s original polling. And Labor is also set to make a significant dent in used constituencies, with the centre-left Liberal Democrats ousting Conservative control of seats for the year.

In the last election, the country’s most deprived sections – based on factors such as income, housing and status – voted for the Conservative Party for the first time.

When the ballots are counted in this lifetime, surveys show that the party’s supporters may be much less broadly-based economically, given how Labor is polling among low-income countries.

In the same vein, Labor leader Keir Starmer has ruthlessly shifted the party to the center since taking over, risking alienating the party’s increasingly left-wing supporters. He has made a U-turn on a promise to spend £28 billion a year on a green investment plan, saying the country did not have enough money, and he has been less critical of Israel over civilian deaths in Gaza. Which many supporters will really like.

Polls show that the cost of Labor backup is thus rising among 18 to 24-year-olds as they gravitate towards smaller parties including the Liberal Democrats and the Greens. The seat of Bristol Central – a city with a large number of young, skilled citizens in south-west England – can be achieved through the Green Party for the first time.

Reducing seats in Labour’s ancient heartlands and past

After a disappointing performance in the last election, Labor must win the remaining 120 seats in Parliament compared to the last election to regain power. It is a strange and terrifying task. Polls suggest Mr Starmer, the party leader, may still be unpopular, even though his position in the polls rose during the campaign.

However basic polling suggests Labor could win seats across the country and reshuffle Britain’s electoral map.

A key test for Labor will be whether it can reconquer the post-industrial heartland of the Midlands and the north of England, traditionally known as the “Red Wall”. Many of these seats were handed over to Conservative applicants for the life primary in 2019, the closest the Nationals sponsored Brexit.

The geography of each party’s voter base is very important in this election, as the UK electoral system rewards parties with highly concentrated voter bases.

The Liberal Democrats are showing particular strength in a small range of wealthy, used seats in the south of England, where it is competing with the Conservative Party for seats rather than Labour. Pollsters are expecting it to win 30 to 50 seats, virtually all at the expense of the Conservatives.

Brexit pushes citizens to the far right

Perhaps the biggest unknown is how well the hard-right reform birthday celebration will fare.

Nigel Farage, who shook up the marketing campaign when he took over as head of Reform in early June, hopes to capitalize on discontent among Conservative citizens and emerging fears about immigration to win seats in Parliament. Ultimately, Faraz said that he hoped to become a candidate for prime minister by 2029, when the reference election would be scheduled.

Their gambit appears to be paying off, with a recent YouGov poll showing Reform overtaking the Conservatives with back-up from almost one in five citizens surveyed.

“It’s the geography of that support that is so dangerous for conservatives,” said Will Jennings, a political science instructor at Southampton College. Unlike the Liberal Democrats, Reform’s voter base is much more thinly spread across the country, and, in a year when it becomes harder to win seats, it could split the right-wing vote across the country and cause the Conservatives to lose additional seats to Labour. Can inspire.

Mr Jennings said: “Reforms gaining 15 to 20 points in some of those constituencies would potentially allow – even if they take a small share of Labour’s votes – Labor to overturn a huge majority. “