With the election of reformist candidate Massoud Pezeshkian as president, Iran may also see a moderation in its autocratic foreign coverage or new diplomatic openings, a chance to flow, former officials and professionals say.
Mr Pezeshkian, a cardiologist, member of parliament and former health minister, has no direct experience in foreign policy. However, he has promised to empower Iran’s most distinguished and global diplomats to run its foreign program, raising hopes of a warmer rapprochement with the West.
Dennis B. Mr. Pezeshkian “represents a more pragmatic posture and a less confrontational posture on the outside and inward,” said Ross, who served as a paramedic for President Barack Obama and is an established Mideast negotiator.
Still, Mr. Ross said, Iran’s best-known leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, “will do a lot to limit” Mr. Pezeshkian’s global program.
Many of the Iranian president’s powers are limited to domestic problems. It is Mr. Khamenei, the country’s best political and religious legitimate, who makes all major policy decisions, especially in foreign affairs and Iran’s nuclear program.
The Islamic Innovative Guards Corps, the alternative power within the Iranian gadget, oversees all of Iran’s military concerns. The Innovative Guard and the best leaders are closely aligned, and they decide when and how to use military force, whether deploying their proxies in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Yemen or threatening Israel.
Diplomats and analysts say Iran’s foreign policies have recently become more hawkish, and that trend may well continue under Mr. Pezeshkian. This includes strengthening alliances with alternative authoritarian states – such as Iran arming Russia with drones and missiles to attack Ukraine – and positioning itself as an influential power in both the Middle East and the West, regardless of its home country. Including portraying as. Turmoil and a deteriorating financial system.
“Iran’s axis of resistance has been so remarkably successful that it is difficult to see why anyone would try to disrupt a policy that has allowed Tehran to project power with some degree of impunity, ” said Ray Tekeh, an Iran expert at the International Council of Members of the Family, in a research note written as the election approached.
fascinated with international
Analysts say the president may have the greatest influence on how Iran’s policies are viewed around the world, largely through the diplomats he selects. On this praise, the difference between Mr. Pezeshkian and his chief rival, the anti-Western ultraconservative Saeed Jalili, Is strict.
During the hardline presidency of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Mr. Jalili had explicitly opposed negotiations with world powers to restrict Iran’s nuclear program in exchange for avoiding severe financial sanctions. Rather, they had led to limiting uranium to the weapons-grade range, Stimson Heart professionals wrote in a study in June.
“His approach left Iran isolated,” said Ali Waze, Iran director of the Global Situation Staff. “He doesn’t believe in the value of dealing with the West.”
With Mr. Pezeshkian at the helm, he said, “I think the chances for diplomatic success will increase.”
Making family members comfortable with the West
Mr Pezeshkian has said he is ambitious to create a coverage of global engagement and help ease relations with the West in an effort to end sanctions. He says he wants to promote dialogue with most alternative governments around the world – except Israel – but he has also warned against making additional investments in alliances with Russia and China. “That’s because they could then exploit Iran” and isolate it globally, Mr. Waze said.
“If we want to work on the basis of this policy, we must treat everyone well and establish good relations with everyone based on dignity and interests,” Mr. Pezeshkian said in May. “The more we improve our foreign relations, the closer we come to the above policy, but the more tensions rise, the further we move away from it and the situation worsens.”
Mr. Weiss said Mr. Pezeshkian has not made any specific foreign policy proposals and has been upfront about his inadequacy of global experience. However, the key foreign policy aide for his campaign was former Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif. Who brokered the nuclear deal with global powers in 2015. Mr Zarif, an astute English-speaking diplomat who has lived in the United States, has been derided by hard-liners as a fake American.
trump issue
A key test of Iran’s interest in international relations with the West may be whether it responds to efforts to restore the 2015 nuclear deal, a topic former President Donald J. Difficult because of Trump’s candidacy.
That promise, which was intended to prevent Iran from developing a nuclear bomb, technically expires at that moment. However, all this has gone dormant since Mr Trump withdrew the United States from trade in 2018 and reimposed US sanctions. This prompted Iran to increase its uranium enrichment to a level where professionals say it would now be able to produce fuel for three or more bombs in a matter of days or even weeks.
Iran has long insisted that its nuclear program is nonviolent, and that it opposes the production or use of nuclear weapons because of a 2003 “fatwa,” or spiritual order, issued by Mr. Khamenei. US officials say there is no evidence of an ongoing effort to weaponize bomb-grade uranium similar to Iran, although the Israelis argue that such efforts are certainly underway under the guise of university research.
Catherine Ashton, a British diplomat who oversaw nuclear negotiations as the EU’s foreign policy chief when an interim was promised in 2013, worked closely with both Mr. Jalili and Mr. Zarif at the negotiating table. . He said Mr Jalili seemed overly enthusiastic about “continuing negotiations while ensuring there is no real progress or results”.
Mr. Zarif, on the other hand, “had a far greater understanding of the United States and Europe, and a determination to secure Iran’s future in the region,” Ms. Ashton said.
Mr Khamenei warned Iranians not to elect a president who might be too obvious to the West, especially the United States. Diplomats have also noted that after years of mistrust and war of words, the warming of relations with Russia over the past decade has helped Iran cope with continued global isolation.
The conflict in Gaza has created tensions between the United States and Iran-backed forces in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Yemen, reducing the prospects for new agreements between Washington and Tehran, Stimson Hart professionals wrote.
Following the Israeli attack on Iran’s embassy compound in Syria in April, which killed several Iranian commanders, Tehran retaliated by firing a large number of missiles and drones against Israel, most of which were intercepted. This marked a significant escalation between the two foes, and likely prompted Iran to level the playing field to secure a stronger deterrent.
Avoiding war with America
However, the Iranians are aware that the United States is ambitious to avoid escalation of the conflict in the Middle East, and there were back-channel messages between the two capitals to outline the dangers.
The final moments of a prisoner exchange between the two countries raised hopes of further diplomatic cooperation, as indirect talks took place over the nuclear program. However, Iran is now interested in whether or how to do business with Mr Trump if he wins re-election in November, as is widely believed among Iran’s political elites.
Mr. Ross, the negotiator, said the new Iranian president may have some leeway in adjusting the balance between “pragmatism or adherence to ideological norms set by the supreme leader” in executive decision-making.
However, this can only take Mr. Pezeshkian’s behavior in foreign policy to this point, especially with the United States, where Mr. Khamenei has prepared difficult obstacles for me. Even when it comes to the 2015 nuclear program, Mr. Ross said, the best leader “has distanced himself from it and prepared himself to say, ‘I told you so’ when Trump walked away from it. “
