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Tehran, Iran
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Amid the threat of war with Israel, a troubled economy and social unrest, Iranians voted in a surprise presidential election on Friday in what may be the country’s most notable election in years.
The surprise death of President Ibrahim Raisi in a recent helicopter strike along with Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdullahian and other officials has left a void in the management. Raisi, a hardline regime loyalist, was once widely considered a leading candidate to replace Iran’s ideal leader, 85-year-old Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who holds supreme authority on all state issues.
It is also the first presidential election in 2022 since the death of Mahsa Amini in the custody of the country’s notorious morality police, a match that sparked the largest protests since the regime’s creation in 1979. The vote becomes a playground amid deteriorating relations with the West. , an advancing Iranian nuclear program, and the increasing possibility of direct conflict with Israel. Just two months ago, Iran and Israel exchanged fire for the first time since the Gaza war escalated, and Israel is now preparing for a possible second front with Hezbollah, Iran’s number one regional proxy in Lebanon.
Three conservatives are competing with a single reformist candidate for the country’s top elected seat, with dozens of upcoming alternative applicants barred from the post. Among those in the works, 69-year-old reformist lawmaker and former health minister Massoud Pezeshkian, hardline security supporter and nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili and conservative speaker of the Iranian parliament Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf are widely considered frontrunners for the first spot. Election period. The overall applicants are pre-selected by Iran’s Parents Council, which reports directly to Khamenei.
Some polls have proven increasing recognition for Pezeshkian, with remaining conservatives splitting the vote. Amid nationwide protests over Amini’s death in 2022, Pezeshkian said in an interview with Iran’s IRINN TV: “It’s our fault. We want to enforce religious belief through the use of force. This is scientifically impossible.”
On Thursday, two conservative applicants, Amirhossein Qazizadeh-Hashemi and Alireza Zakani, withdrew from the race to help consolidate the radical vote. Qazizadeh-Hashemi suggested other candidates from the “revolution camp” to do the same in order to achieve a radical victory.
Any candidate who wins at least 50% of the votes in the first round will be elected President, otherwise the two top-ranking candidates will face off in a second round on the nearest day.
Arash Azizi, an Iranian essayist and fellow at the Center for East and World Form (CMEG), said, “These are nothing like free and fair elections, and only those who have already declared their allegiance to Khamenei and the Islamic Republic can contest the elections.” Complete loyalty is promised.” ), a Berlin-based eclipse tank. “But there are still very significant differences between the three main candidates. Each of them presents some problems for Khamenei.
Top contenders are children of Iran’s 1979 Islamic Revolution, likely based on their study of fighting the incoming US-backed Saddam Hussein regime in a bloody, decade-long war with its neighbor Iraq, as well as careers serving the Iranian state. Are made.
However, voters choosing between the conservatives or their reformist co-candidates will chart a different path for the country.
“What we have seen in this election, compared to the last election (2021), is that there has been a certain amount of energy for the election in the last few days,” said Trita Parsi, a Washington-based Iran analyst. And the executive vice president of the Quincy Institute suggested that participation rates may ultimately be higher than in previous elections.
Iran’s electoral process has long been marred by voter apathy, embarrassing an established system that has relied on core voter turnout to bolster its democratic credentials and general legitimacy.
Elections in March for the Parliament and the Assembly of Professionals, an oversight body responsible for choosing the ideal leader’s successor, saw the lowest turnout since the establishment of the Islamic Republic, despite government efforts to mobilize voters ahead of the vote. Entered.
Khamenei advised Iranians to go to the polls and vote in the upcoming elections, casting their ballots on Friday morning.
“People’s participation is part of the essence of the state and the continuity of the Islamic Republic’s existence and its position in the world is linked to people’s participation,” he said.
On the other hand, despite some momentum, low turnout “remains a distinct possibility due to widespread disillusionment and economic difficulties,” said Sina Tousi, an Iran analyst and senior fellow at the Center for Global Coverage in Washington, DC.
He said, “Many Iranians remain dissatisfied and skeptical about the electoral process and are skeptical of its ability to bring about meaningful change, especially in light of the government’s violent repression of popular protests in recent years.” “A large number of Iranians say they will boycott the elections, including prominent civil society activists and political prisoners such as Nobel laureate Nargess Mohammadi.”
There was jubilation at Tehran’s Shiroudi Stadium on Wednesday as supporters of conservative Ghalibaf gathered for his final campaign rally.
Thousands of Iranians poured into the inner area and surrounded the candidate as he entered, chanting: “We salute Raisi, we salute Ghalibaf.”
“Ghalibaf is one who supports and follows the supreme leader. Whatever the supreme leader says, he implements it,” 32-year-old Prashant Ahmed, a clerk, told the crowd. It’s best to provide your first name so you can speak openly, the Iranians told CNN.
Financial issues are important in the minds of many citizens.
In June, inflation in Iran was 36.1%, putting a strain on the wallets of the entire country. Despite rising from a year-end high of over 45%, the country’s annual inflation rate has not fallen below 30% in 5 years. The power inflation comes after the Trump administration backed out of a 2015 nuclear promise and reimposed major sanctions on the Islamic Republic.
Ghalibaf has been critical of his attacks on the 2015 nuclear deal and efforts toward rapprochement with the West, blaming much of the country’s economic problems on Iran’s Western enemies.
“The first expectation of the people is economic development. There is no doubt that this development can happen through elections,” Ghalibaf shouted to the people, reiterating his marketing campaign promises.
Along the walls and on the tables of all Iranian families were plastered the campaign’s promises of food and separate land for homeless families.
“I worry when people rally behind candidates like Ghalibaf,” an aide at the school told CNN outside the rally. Leaning against voting for the sole reformist candidate, Pezeshkian, she said she had come to Ghalibaf’s rally to hear his speech before deciding who to vote for.
“Iranians want simple things, a good economy, good relations with other countries,” she said, adding that she was dependent on Pezeshkian.
As night fell inside the Heydarnia Stadium, Pezeshkian’s supporters gathered to listen to his talk, many of whom were curious to learn more about how to improve Iran’s membership of the world family.
“The change we need in politics is foreign policy, so it will result in improvement in the economic condition of people,” Maryam, 23, told CNN. He said voting for a conservative could be a reprisal for overdue President Raisi, whom he criticized for failing to live up to his guarantees and not reining in Iran’s notorious morality police.
All around him, people were at once on edge, a pressing force wafting around the stadium. A day before, organizers unexpectedly announced that the construction was protested and police barricaded the gate.
Disappointed supporters poured into the inner streets; His mantra, like his nature, has been steadfast: “Our vote is one word: Pezheshkian.”
I am grateful to the thousands of Pejceskian supporters who were allowed to enter the stadium, but the incident in the final hours of his campaign shocked his gathered voters.
“We only have a small window of hope, which is Pezeshkian,” Mohammed, a 47-year-old journalist, told CNN at the rally. “We cannot change the Constitution… We must move forward, step by step, until we reach the democracy that the people are looking for.”
Parsi, an Iran expert, suggested that curiosity about the vote would likely arise from its sudden election.
“Nobody expected this to happen,” he said, noting that Raisi’s unexpected death may have led the country to believe that “maybe the regime does not have the capacity to control this election,” as it did today. Is in the date of.
West with family members
Iran’s foreign policy path is largely directed by Khamenei, and the president’s role is primarily domestic. Alternatively, the week’s president and his foreign minister will play an important role in ongoing relations with the world nation.
Azizi said, “Pezeshkian’s victory would not be bad news for Khamenei and, in fact, it might even be the best outcome as he would be a weak president with a small base and thus would be easier to control.”
Pezeshkian’s prominent best friend is former emigrant minister Javad Zarif. If the American-educated Zarif, who witnessed the warmest contemporary period of relations with Washington, returns in a credible capacity, he would likely hand over a means to ease tensions with the West.
Alternatively, on this day Khamenei condemned those pursuing advanced family members’ ties with the West – in an apparent implicit attack on Pezeshkian and Zarif.
He exploded by noting that, “All roads to progress run through America.” Politicians who believe they cannot get out without favoritism from the United States will not be able to manage (the country) well, Khamenei was quoted as saying in Iranian state media.
Although Tehran is not expected to bow to the West in the near future, the prospect of Trump becoming an irreconcilable presidency and the already bloody tensions in the Middle East make any escalation in the family the strongest possible scenario.
Additionally, even if an additional Western-friendly candidate takes power, a change in Iran’s foreign family members is not guaranteed, as partisan gestures toward the West may not be reciprocated.
“A more West-oriented administration in Iran may not find a willing partner in Washington under Biden,” Parsi said. “it takes two to tango.”