Israel-Hezbollah war could be devastating for all sides

Almost daily shelling along Lebanon’s border with northern Israel has intensified worryingly in recent weeks, leading to ultimatums between Israel and Hezbollah and forcing the US to seek an immediate diplomatic solution.

All-out war between Israel and Hezbollah – an Iran-backed Lebanese Shia terrorist and political group, known as a terrorist group in the US and UK. -Can be horrific for all parties.

There are so many fears of war breaking out between Israel and Hezbollah – a far larger and more heavily armed fighting force than Hamas – that US President Joe Biden has sent one of his key aides, Amos Hochstein, to Israel to prevent it. And sent to Lebanon. For an answer.

U.S. Secretary of State for Security Lloyd Austin informed Newshound on Tuesday that “diplomacy is by far the best way to prevent further escalation,” emphasizing that, “We are immediately seeking a diplomatic agreement that “Restore lasting peace along Israel’s northern border and enable civilians to return safely.” “Homes on both sides of the Israel-Lebanon border.”

Hezbollah has fired thousands of rockets into Israel in the nearly nine months since it began its war against Palestinian militant group Hamas in Gaza on October 7. 18 Israeli soldiers and 10 civilians have been killed by rockets fired from Lebanon. Israel says Israeli shelling has killed about 300 Hezbollah warring parties and about 80 civilians in Lebanon, according to a Reuters tally.

At least 150,000 civilians in southern Lebanon and northern Israel were evacuated from their properties and internally displaced by the cross-border fire.

“A full-scale war between Israel and Hezbollah would be a catastrophic event for the region, including both Israel and Lebanon,” Victor Tricaud, a senior analyst at the consulting firm Keep an Eye on Dangers, told CNBC.

The ultimate battle situation? Tricaud describes a massive garden offensive and aerial bombing campaign against Lebanon through Israel, heavy bombing through Hezbollah with habitual direct hits on Israeli civilian infrastructure, and possibly also the direct involvement of Iran, including major There may be an impact on the worldwide financial system.

In a war of this magnitude nationwide infrastructure on all sides – such as H2O, electrical energy and communications – would be heavily damaged or destroyed, along with assets and armed forces objectives.

Although, for now, this remains a “comparatively distant scenario”, Tricaud noted, “several incremental steps are likely to be taken before the conflict reaches this level of intensity.”

Leaders on all sides say they are not expecting a full-scale war. Their tit-for-tat steps over several months, sometimes life-threatening and then fatal, are nevertheless seen as moderate calculations to avoid massive escalation.

Meanwhile, Lebanon is in the midst of a financial and political situation, its infrastructure completely unprepared for a war of attrition. A significant Israeli incursion into the country could be unfortunate, especially in the south of Lebanon – a major stronghold of Hezbollah – which is a major blackmail for recognition of the terrorist group and help there.

“Today, each side works to ‘teach’ the other that it can inflict more pain within the predictable rules of a limited fight,” said Nimrod Novick, a fellow on the Israel Coverage Discussion Board, which the two are planning to pursue. Is dedicated to. -Explain the outcome of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

“However, it only takes one stray rocket to cause significant casualties and the adversary retaliates in a variety of ways to get the situation out of control.”

Hezbollah is considered one of the most heavily armed non-state groups in the world. Its military capability is estimated to be 10 times greater than that of Hamas, and most previous wars between Israel and Hezbollah have ended without victory for all sides.

On the other hand, the outcome of the 34-day war between the two rivals in 2006, which saw Israeli garden troops fighting in Lebanon, was claimed as a victory for Hezbollah, and explained away as a strategic failure. Went to Israel. The insurgent group is now more powerful than in 2006 and has more sophisticated weapons at its disposal.

Tricaud noted that Hezbollah fighters have become “increasingly battle-hardened” due to participation in the war in Syria, and able to leverage asymmetric warfare tactics very effectively due to the movement’s long-standing territorial control of southern Lebanon. Will be.”

He said the death toll from a full-scale war on the Israeli community would be “far higher than in 2006.”

Retired Israel Security Forces Colonel Miri Isin, who these days directs the Global Institute for Counterterrorism in Israel, cited the example of blackmailing Hezbollah’s gun arsenal into a match for an all-out war.

“We are talking about weapons that we have not seen in the region,” he said, adding that they could use mortars, rockets, guided missiles, drone swarms, suicide drones or even missiles to destroy Israel’s defenses. Garden said, describing the soldiers’ potential importance to Hezbollah.

Additionally, “Israel will attack a large number of Hezbollah targets,” Essin said. “And Hezbollah has surface-to-air missiles that they have used very little and they have from both Iran and Russia.”

Despite Israel’s ambitious wind defense technologies, there will still be “capabilities that will penetrate inside Israel, which means we will be at risk in the center of Israel,” he said.

In any such context, American aid to Israel would probably be most important; This also increases the risk if alternative Iranian-backed proxy groups become involved and attack U.S. assets.

The latest reports, citing unnamed US officials, said the Biden leadership would help Israel defend itself against Hezbollah retaliation. This could include keeping its Iron Dome wind protection device in stock, rendering judgment – ​​and perhaps even hanging Hezbollah – in the face of major attacks against Israel. CNBC has contacted the US Division of Protection for comment.

Novick, of the Israel Coverage Discussion Board, nevertheless believes that the diplomatic path to de-escalation and resolution is far from exhausted.

“In fact,” he noted, “the sad irony is that the greater the risk of escalating tensions, the more likely the parties are to make room for diplomacy. This is a typical ‘too close for comfort’ situation. “