Keith Law’s MLB Draft’s biggest surprises, best teams and best players still available

After all the gossip and rumors and claims that there would be some crazy pre-draft deals with players and shocking selections, the first round of the 2024 MLB Draft mostly consisted of guys we thought would go in the first round. MLB teams selected 74 players on opening day, and 66 were in my top 100.

Of the first 30 selections – the actual first round – 25 of those players were ranked in my top 31. There were no major upsets, no non-top 100 types taken in the first round, no outrageous overreach, and for the most part the best guys went to the top of the draft.

Here are some general observations followed by my pick-by-pick thoughts for the entire first round. I’ll be doing team-by-team recaps for all 30 clubs later this week, so if I haven’t mentioned your team here, you’ll have to be patient.

Cleveland Patron: They had the first pick and they selected Oregon State second baseman Travis Bazana, one of only two legitimate options in my opinion. The Guardians then turned around and took a high school pitcher, Braylon Doughty, with their Competitive Balance Round A (CBA) pick at No. 36, which I think took up most of the savings from an under-slot deal with Bazana. Will be absorbed. He followed NC State catcher Jacob Cozart, who quietly had a tremendous year at the plate for the Wolfpack, with their second-round pick (No. 48). I feel like they landed two everyday players at the middle positions, and then took a savvy flyer on a very good high school arm.

Colorado Rockies: The Rockies landed the No. 1 player on my board, Golden Spikes winner Charlie Condon, and grabbed right-hander Brody Brecht, another first-round talent from Iowa with their CBA pick at 38. Brecht is a project, a high school wing so to speak, with the body of a college pitcher, but if anyone needs to take a risk on high-upside pitching, it’s the Rockies.

Arizona Diamondbacks: The Dubs landed two of my top 15 players in high school outfielder Slade Caldwell (No. 29) and Kentucky outfielder Ryan Waldschmidt (No. 31). Caldwell is a small outfielder from Arkansas who probably has a lot of height at 6 feet tall, but he can really hit and defend. Waldschmidt was one of the best hitters in the college group, but he apparently slipped because some teams were concerned about a knee injury (ACL) that ended his 2023 season. They went for some upside at pick No. 35 with JD Dicks, a high school infielder from Wisconsin who has committed to Oregon State, and then enough for their last pick of the day, Puerto Rican catcher Iván Luciano (No. Reached ahead. 64), which will probably fall under the slot.

Kansas City Royals: Look, I don’t think Jack Caglianone is a two-way player, and I’m not sure the Royals do either, even if they announced him as a player. He has the kind of power that the Royals have been looking for throughout the history of the franchise, and it is completely logical to take him at No. 6, when he was one of the best players available anyway. I also like the selection of 41-year-old left-hander David Shields. He earned very high marks for his delivery and pitching experience, and I’m all about taking high schoolers who have these things and who may have big speed a few years down the line.

New York Mets and New York Yankees: If you don’t like New York, leave this note. I like the Mets’ two picks, Carson Benz (No. 19) has a real upside as a hitter who makes very hard contact and requires some small changeups for power; And Jonathan Santucci (No. 46), a Duke left-hander, is out of first-round stuff and the spring of 2023 with some injury concerns due to a fractured elbow. Santucci was their second-round pick, and taking a chance on a first-round pick with their second pick is a great gamble. Meanwhile, the Yankees took my personal favorite in this draft, Alabama right-hander Ben Hayes, with their first pick (No. 26), and followed that up with Vanderbilt right-hander Bryce Cunningham (No. 53). Both seem like pitchers who would thrive in the Yankees’ player development system.

Seattle Mariners: I heard the Mariners wanted pitching, and they landed two of my top 30 pitchers with switch-pitcher Jurangelo Szentje (No. 15) and prep right-hander Ryan Sloan (No. 55). (Commissioner Rob Manfred declared Szentje a “switch-handed pitcher.” What? We don’t say “switch-handed hitter.” It’s a switch-hitter and it should be a switch-pitcher.) Sloan has now become quite the guy. , up to 100 mph with a plus changeup, and if he can show he will throw enough strikes the Mariners should be aggressive with him. His system is very run-heavy, and it just so happened that the draft presented him with a pair of first-round weapons.

Washington Nationals: The Nets played well with their three picks, including one acquired from the Royals on Saturday for Hunter Harvey, landing Wake Forest shortstop/centerfielder Seaver King with their first pick (No. 10) and acquiring Luke Dickerson. A high-upside high school infielder. His third choice (No. 44). They used the new pick (No. 39) on Cal catcher Caleb Lomavita, fair value for that pick, although I can’t warm to a guy who is as impatient as he is at the plate.

The Milwaukee Brewers and Philadelphia Phillies made surprising selections: The biggest surprises in the first round in terms of rankings were Braylon Payne (Milwaukee) and Dante Nori (Philadelphia). Payne went to 17 overall; Despite his 80 speed, I ranked him 78th, because he needs to be a lot stronger to hit hard enough for speed to matter. I’m not saying he can’t do it, but it takes time, and there is a risk that he may not get the strength he will need. Nori finished 27th overall, and I ranked him 65th, more than anything because he’s a 19-year-old high school product – he’ll turn 20 in October. He’s got the tools, and I think there could be another level of power there if someone loosened up his lower half. I’m not saying either one is a bad pick, not by any means, but I didn’t see either one going in the first place.

Where the high-profile names arrived: Most of the famous people who came into the draft fell short of their fame. Caglianone might have been the most popular player in the class, and he finished sixth, not too bad but not the 1-1 that the publicity would have you believe. Vance Honeycutt was a first-round pick with Baltimore at age 22. Tommy White, aka Tommy Tanks, who was the nation’s top freshman in 2022, ultimately reached 40th in the A’s. The industry is very good at ignoring the hype and evaluating the player.

Best player available for day two

1. Peyton Stovall, 2B, Arkansas (ranked 34th)
2. Kevin Bazzell, C/3B, Texas Tech (No. 35)
3. Dakota Jordan, OF, Mississippi State (No. 49)
4. De’Marion Terrell, OF, Thompson HS, AL (No. 52)
5. Gage Miller, 3B, Alabama (No. 54)
6. Carson Wiggins, RHP, Rowland HS, OK (No. 55)
7. Jared Jones, 1B, LSU (No. 57)
8. Connor Gatwood, RHP, Baker HS, AL (No. 61)
9. Dax Whitney, RHP, Blackfoot HS, ID (No. 63)
10. Mike Sirota, OF, Northeastern (No. 65)

The list of the best players still available looks different this year – it usually consists mostly of high-priced high school guys, but this year the first three are college players, and only four of the remaining 10 best players are high schoolers. Are. De’Marion Terrell and Connor Gatwood have both committed to Auburn, Dax Whitney has committed to Oregon State, and Carson Wiggins has committed to Arkansas. I think unless there is a medical or some other non-baseball factor that I haven’t heard about, the six college players here will be off the board quickly.

(Top photo: LM Otero/Associated Press)