Let’s play scout: who should the Guardians draft at No. 1? – Terry Pluto

Since we’re only dealing with four college hitters, it’s important to know that the hitting statistics are inflated. There have been more home runs hit in Division I in 2024 than at any other time in their century. Many baseball people believe that the balls have lost their juice, not sure why. But they are flying.

Three of the four players set their school’s all-time single-season home run record in 2024: Condon (37), Caglianone (35) and Bazzana (28).

As you read this, it’s quite possible that I know so much that everything will be completely confusing. But here we go:

the basics: Condon led Division I baseball in homers (37) and batting average (.433). This is a rare combination. This happened in just his second college season. The 21-year-old newcomer was a redshirt. I recently wrote a story in which Scott Stricklin (Condon’s first college coach) explained how Condon went from a “true walk-on” to a star.

more basics: Caglianone hit more homers (35) than strikeouts (26). This is a remarkable statistic, especially since he also batted .419 (1.419 OPS) and had a 30-game hitting streak at one point this season. He has increased his total number of walks this season from 17 (2023) to 58. He reduced his strikeouts from 58 to 26. He also hit homers in nine consecutive games in 2024.

A Comment: I talked to a college coach who has competed in the SEC. “A lot has been written about Cags (Caglianone). He is a physical specimen (6 foot 5, 250 pounds). He has the raw potential to become a superstar.”

Hit the ball in the air: I remember when I was a kid some coaches told me there was nothing wrong with hitting ground balls. Those coaches were wrong. Professionals are looking at a player’s line drive and fly ball rate. He hates the high ground ball rate. Caglianone’s ground ball rate was 42%, the highest among the four players.

Weird CAG stats: In 316 plate appearances for Florida, Caglianone had only eight doubles and no triples. Perhaps this was due to the high ground ball rate. He would either hit a single, or when he put the ball in the air – it would fly over the fence.

Walks over strikeouts: All four players had more walks than strikeouts: Condon (57/41), Caglianone (58/26), Bazzana (76/36) and Weatherholt (30/17).

Wooden Bat Factor: Last summer, Bazana played in the Cape Cod League, where the top college players use wooden bats. He hit .375 (1.037 OPS) and was the league’s MVP. Weatherholt batted .321 (.978 OPS) in the same league, but in 32 plate appearances compared to 158 for Bazana. Condon was 12-of-46 (.261, .648 OPS) in the league. Caglianone did not play. These statistics are part of the reason why many scouts consider Bazana to be the purist hitter and most MLB-ready in the draft.

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A fake concern?: Some evaluators say Condon hits much better at home (.500, 26 HR) than on the road (.342, 11 HR). I looked at Home Park in Georgia. Foley Field is 350 feet down the left field line, 404 feet down the center field, and 314 feet down the right field line. The power lanes are 370 feet. Condon is a right-handed hitter, meaning he pulls the ball to left field – where it is deeper than right field.

Digging Deep: In 2023, Condon batted .410 (12 HR) at home compared to .387 (13 HR) on the road. No real difference. More importantly, he batted .412 in the tough Southeastern Conference.

Even deeper: Condon played in 37 games against teams going to the NCAA Tournament, hitting .357 with 19 HR. I could only find that stat from one other player – Bazana hit .345 with 6 HR in 15 games against teams in the NCAA Tournament.

Chasing Rates: This means swinging at balls outside the strike zone. Caglianone was at 37%, Condon was at 23%. This is often a sign of impending trouble. The Guardians were always concerned that Oscar Gonzalez was swinging at too many pitches outside the strike zone, and this eventually led to problems in the majors. Despite swinging at more bad pitches, Caglianone fanned out only 8% of the time compared to Condon’s 13%. Caglianone is also gradually decreasing his chase rate while he doubled his walk rate from 2023 to 2024.

He can pitch: Caglianone is a lefty first baseman who has also been clocked at 100 mph as a pitcher. In two years with Florida, he had a record of 12–6 and an ERA of 4.45. In 148 innings, he scored 170 runs and conceded 105 runs. He is wild. He will be a professional prospect as a pitcher, but is unlikely to be selected in the first round. He does a good job with the glove at first base. Can he play outfield? Scouts seem divided on that question. He has very little experience there.

He can play in several positions: Condon recently learned to play third base. The 6-foot-6, 220-pounder has played a lot of outfield, which will likely be his position if drafted by Cleveland.

He just hits: Bazana is a native of Australia who has a passion for hitting and analytics. A lefty hitter, he strikes out to lefties and righties. He walks a lot. He has the highest “barrel rate” and lowest “chase rate” among the four players. Barrel rate refers to hitting the ball with the barrel of the bat, where you are most likely to hit it hard.

a comparison: I’ve heard scouts have compared the 6-foot, 199-pound Bazana to Jason Kipnis, only with the potential to be even better. One theory is that the Guardians will draft Bazana (a very safe selection) and move him to the outfield. Another theory is that they will leave him at second base. If he moves quickly from the Minors, put him at second and move Andres Jimenez from second to shortstop.

tiny?: The Guardians have several position players listed under 6-foot: Jose Ramirez, Steven Cowan, Josh Naylor, Brian Rocio, Angel Martinez and Jimenez. This won’t stop them from drafting Bazana.

About Weatherholt: He is the hardest to evaluate because he missed six weeks in 2024 due to a hamstring issue. He had this before too. In 2023, the West Virginia shortstop batted .449 (1.304 OPS) with 16 HR in 55 games. Heading into 2024, he was rated the top college prospect in the country. He has a sweet lefty swing. He batted .331 (1.061 OPS) with 8 HR in 36 games. The hamstring was an issue. He went from 36 stolen bases in 2023 to six in 2024.

my opinion: I would stay away from Weatherholt with the top pick. There are two dominant powermen (Condon and Caglianone) and one standout hitter (Bazzana) who appears to be more dominant.

Coming into trouble: Condon hit 5 HR and had a 1.865 OPS with at least a 95 mph pitch. Caglianone did not hit a homer on at least a 95 mph pitch. I feel uncomfortable with this data because I don’t have complete details. This was mentioned on the D1Baseball Podcast.

Biggest Upside: Most talent evaluators believe it is Caglianone, who some have also compared to Bryce Harper. That could also be the biggest expose.

Safest selection: It’s Bazana and Condon, in that order. Weatherholt has his fans, and they will say that the 2023 Weatherholt also belongs on this list. However, his injuries should be a matter of concern. I’ll give my recommendations for Cleveland’s pick in a separate column.