Market can perform well even without Nvidia in government: Strategist

The S&P 500 (^GSPC) has been driven to new heights this time as the tech sector makes primary gains through AI developments. B. Riley Wealth’s leading marketplace strategist Artwork Hogan joins Marketplace Domination to talk about the index’s rally and whether it will keep the momentum going.

“I think it’s a perfect example of why a lot of people are concerned that Nvidia (NVDA) and arguably Nvidia, Microsoft (MSFT), and Apple (AAPL) were such a big part of the 15% that the S&P 500 is higher this year. On a year-over-year basis… but you’re basically looking at three or four days where Nvidia is not leading the way, and I think the market has performed very well, it’s until the second half of this year will continue.” , He expects the market to grow across themes such as power, financials, utilities and industrials at this time.

He believes second-quarter GDP growth could be higher than anticipated, noting, “I think we’re going to see both the economy and earnings growing outside the consensus estimate by the end of the calendar year.” He additionally expects the Fed to begin cutting interest rates in September, stating, “Investors have really shown that given the choice between early and frequent rate cuts and better economic data and earnings, They choose the latter. And I think that’s a very intuitive choice, so I think market participants are certainly leaning in the direction that we don’t want the Fed to cut. But if they make the cut, they can take their time in doing so.”

For additional insightful sentiment and original market action, click here to watch this entire episode of Marketplace Domination.

This post was written by Melanie Riehl

video transcript

Let’s welcome you to Artwork Hogan.

He is the Lead Market Strategist at B. Riley Wealth.

Artwork is always worth viewing for you later.

Uh, let’s start with one of those broader questions.

Artwork.

You know, Julie was saying recently, you take a look at the SSPXSP 500.

We’ve been mainly flat lately.

The artwork, however, has increased by about 15% as of this hour.

The artwork is just me.

Do you think broadly, does that rally continue in the second half?

Artwork or, or disagree, you would hope we would almost breathe a sigh of relief right here.

I believe that’s a perfect example recently and I think you guys really picked up on it neatly, I believe it’s a great example of a group of people who What’s worrying is that NVIDIA and arguably NVIDIA Microsoft and Apple were such a big part of the 15% that the S and P 500 fare on an hourly basis.

And what if someone actually falls out of bed now?

It’s not like 10% are sick on an accumulation of 140% per hour per day, uh minus that’s 10, an obese decline.

the story continues

However, you’re ophthalmological, you know, primarily in three or four days NVIDIA is no longer priced and the market has done very well.

I believe this will continue for the second half of this hour.

I believe what we’re going to see is like you, if you look at the cadence of earnings growth, the ratio that Alternative 497 Stocks is adding to the S&P 500 becomes a lot higher. .

So I believe you’ll see market growth and possibly things like energy that we’ve been appreciating recently.

Financials, which we’re seeing these days, select utilities and possibly industrials to a certain extent, you know, at their level, just pick up the baton a little bit and pull their weight with respect to what happens on the back end of it. Start Hour.

And I believe that puts us on a more fair playing field.

I believe the focus on dominance obviously worries the crowd.

And if in fact, we work our way through the second quarter, mirroring the power porting season and alternative sectors that we did in the first quarter, you know, we’ve seen that the sector rather than the generation really Perform well.

I believe that this market can actually pick itself back up and no longer need to be driven through technology and communications services and products.

Uh the artwork gives the closest indication that you’re very positive about the expansion, right?

Because clearly the technology that we’ve discovered has grown through this AI narrative.

However, to do everything else neatly, finding it irresistible now largely requires a general expanding narrative.

Yes, I, I believe Juliet and I believe when you look at the estimates for second quarter GDP growth, it’s north of 3%, according to the Atlanta Fed GDP growth.

We’ll get some more revisions to this past after the primary quarter.

I believe it is going up, not going down now.

I believe that we are not necessarily going to have the kind of 3.5% GDP growth that we achieved in the last part of the last hour, but something like 2.5% which is undoubtedly above heartless and probably A lot is going to happen. Using the earnings.

So if you look again, if you look at the earnings estimates for the next three quarters, including the second quarter, they are slowly moving their way up.

And as everyone knows, you understand, we tend to have a little bit of consensus.

So I believe we will continue to see growth in both the economy and earnings outside of consensus estimates by the end of the calendar hour.

All other catalysts for attainable CS we are seeing past this.

uh the p ce deck is the fed’s most popular inflation gauge.

What are you hoping to hear there?

And what do you do, what are you expecting from the survivors of that time.

Now, I will tell you this, it is a little more easy to calculate P CE because through this opportunity we get both CP I and PP I, we know which of the items are going to that, uh read P CE. Used to be.

So, um, as opposed to 2.7 on the main level, we like to see that travel to 2.6.

And oddly enough, this is where the Fed actually gave us the reason for the 24 exit.

So we’ll probably see basically a 2.6 print after this, that 2.6 is going to be pretty close to the government action, because it actually feels quite comfortable to have its first payment in September. Reduce.

And I believe this is probably the beginning of feeling a little better about where we are within the financial payments cycle.

We are, we’re going to be roughly at the end of the celebration because this, as we all know the ECB has already pulled out, Canada’s reserves, England’s deputes have joined in and that’s probably their closest beating. Has been.

So through the event coming around September, we will probably see the Fed scale down for the first occasion and that will probably take a little bit of a drive off the dollar, because the dollar male unit will be really high when the Fed shows up. We are dragging our heels to celebrate on the Velocity scale.

I just wanted to emphasize a point of view that you understand, the Fed.

It seemed like there used to be a dynamic of an event where it was just fed, fed, fed, fed all week, every week and it felt like it felt irresistible, maybe it was a little A little bit, pulled back a little bit on that a little bit.

I’m heartless, do I think things are, or, or the market, maybe, buyers are coming around to the idea, maybe, that we’re no longer as dependent as we thought we were six months ago or three hundred Sixty-five days ago.

Oh, totally.

Like just the right level.

Yes.

So the players applied pressure, they started increasing the fees more slowly towards the end of the last hour.

And so we entered this hour thinking that maybe we would get 5-6 duty cuts and so they would start starting in early March and it ended up being bullish during the first quarter and yet the market remained bullish.

So buyers have indeed proven that when given the choice between early and regular reduction in fees and higher financial knowledge and income, they choose the extreme.

And I believe it is a highly intuitive choice to make.

So I believe market members are in no doubt on the path that we should not taper the Fed now.

But when their size comes down, they may be able to blow away their chances.

And if September is the first time they do so, it would be appreciable in contrast to the position we were in when we started this calendar hour, which was assuming they were making additional cuts to the total accumulation.

And the good news is that they didn’t need to because the economy is slowing down even in this cruel month.