Mavens discuss unelected Iranian reformist President Pezheshkia

Following reformist Massoud Pezeshkian’s miraculous victory in Iran’s presidential election this weekend, jerusalem put up Interviewed multiple professionals about alternative approaches to Tehran, Israel and the region.

Iran experts at INSS and Raz Zimmt at the Mir Amit Prudence and Terrorism Knowledge Center advised put up Anyone who says that “the regime completely controls the results – this is not true.

“The Iranian regime completes its interference at the stage of selecting which candidates qualify for the Guardian Council. Once the Guardian Council has approved or disqualified candidates – which is its clear interference, then perhaps the Basij (Iranian regime militia) can campaign, but their interference is limited. It is a country of more than 90 million people. They can’t influence much unless they create the results themselves,” he said.

He said that Iran was believed to have exerted electoral influence during 2009 to propel Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to victory, but this was a situation where the opposition was actually considered anti-regime.

Islamic rule will proceed as it always has

In contrast, Pezeshkian, even with the “reformist” label, is considered essentially trustworthy to the regime.

According to Zimmt, the biggest unquestionable question in this election was voter turnout. Only when voter turnout was higher than in the first round – and it dropped from around 40% turnout to around 50% – did Pezeshkian’s chances of winning increase significantly.

Zimmt explained that the broader public is always more liberal than the regime.

Apparently by going from Pezheshkian’s more than 10 million votes to more than 16 million votes, he gained the vast majority of untapped voters, he said.

According to Zimmt, many voters for alternative candidates who did not make the run-off cast votes for Pezeshkian, even though those alternative candidates themselves advocated the radical Saeed Jalili.

He explained that alternative contenders, whose generation is mostly discussed as radical in the media, were nevertheless more pragmatic than Jalili, such that many of his supporters neglected to endorse and voted for Pezeshkian closer to his pragmatic stance. .

An additional question raised is if Ayatollah Ali Khamenei can keep track of who runs for president (even though he cannot completely keep track of who wins once the list of candidates is drawn up) ), so why didn’t they make sure that whoever was once running as a reformist candidate could be a no-name loser?

Zimmt noted that he no longer “gets involved in conspiracies; rather, Khamenei wanted one of the radicals to win and did not expect Pezeshkian to pose any threat – and Pezeshkian’s victory upset Khamenei.

Furthermore, the Iran expert said, “Some people say Khamenei wanted Pezeshkian because he was worried that (Donald) Trump would win the United States presidential election” and summed up the effort to reduce nuclear trade with the West. Wanted to “present a good face” Before entering Trump’s business venue.

However, Zimmt found that most of these explanations came after the election results and were not necessarily those that were being mentioned in the first place.

He noted that he no longer accepts those explanations, and asked that “if Khamenei had wanted Pezeshkian (like the reformists) to win, he could have done it more easily. He may approve someone with a better chance, such as former parliamentary speaker Ali Larijani.

Furthermore, he said that “Khamenei can deal with them all. Pezeshkian will still be a weak president so he can control them and he will remain loyal to the regime.

The other important factor is whether Pezeshkian can shift Iran policy enough to allow the Islamic Republic to again enter a nuclear industry by establishing limits on its nuclear program in exchange for relaxation of sanctions that have crippled its economy. It has been messed up.

Zimmt responded, “Pezeshkian can say whatever he wants. “I don’t see any possibility of Khamenei going back, not to the JCPOA, not to a strong and long deal, and not to a short and weak deal.”

Khamenei “could have made a deal during (Hassan) Rouhani’s tenure or in the summer of 2022,” but he decided not to do so. Furthermore, Zimmt said Iran analysts believe Khamenei will turn back the clock to enrich uranium to only 3.5% and even to a mid-level enrichment of 20%.

In return, at most, he said Khamenei could fix the bitter unused high-level uranium enrichment plan to 60% by summer 2023.

According to Zimmt, Khamenei has the wrong incentives to make major concessions “When Trump can change any deal – why agree to anything?”

“Khamenei will wait for the US elections in November before deciding whether to proceed with the nuclear programme”.

Nonetheless, Zimt said it would at least be easier to restart nuclear talks with the Pezeshkian government, including including former Foreign Minister Javad Zarif as an ally and possibly taking back his defunct role.

Zimmt once wondered whether Pezeshkian was a genuine reformist, like former Iranian President Mohammad Khatami (1997–2005), who sought to emulate the West and pursue reforms to make Iran more fundamentally democratic. Were willing to travel much further. Former Iranian President Rouhani (2013–2021), who was once called a pragmatist because he tried his best to make incremental small reforms to Iran’s governance and personality. Rouhani helped prop up Iran to the West more than the hard-liners, who believe in constant confrontation with the West.

Zimmt said he was once in between the two: seeking more reform than Rouhani, but no longer as ambitious as Khatami.

Pezeshkian will attempt to put forward examples of reforms, but still the return to the Iran nuclear industry and the lifting of sanctions comes with being more visible to civilian people, civil rights, girls’ problems and ethnic minorities – especially since he is from Is a western part of Iran with additional minorities.

Alternatively, Zimmt said his influence on those issues may also be limited. Now he will not be able to get rid of the rule for girls to cover their heads by wearing hijab.

In return, Zimmt noted that he could reduce enforcement or restrict allocating funding for enforcement and penalties on the topic of hijab.

Zimmt said a key option for Pezeshkian could be to appoint a woman as one of his vice presidents. He said that unlike some other government positions, Pezeshkian could do so without parliamentary favors. Pezeshkian is not considered a heavyweight like Ibrahim. Raisi who can replace Khamenei himself if the illustrious chief dies.

In turn, Zimmt said important potential replacements could be Khamenei’s son, Mojtaba Hosseini Khamenei, who is in his mid-50s, or senior members of government Iranian councils who already control much of Iran. Let’s run.

The Ayatollah’s son is extremely ambitious, competitive, close to the Islamic Innovative Defense Corps and an influential person. However he seeks to overcome major obstacles that are unacceptable to Ruhollah Khomeini, the founder of the Islamic Republic. There has been speculation about the society’s view of dynasties as un-Islamic, and Khamenei himself has attacked this concept from time to time.

Among the names Zimmt singled out were Alireza Arafi and Mohsen Qomi, who are not prominent globally, but inside Iran he entrusted the task of choosing the great leader to the country’s executive body, called the Assembly of Mavens. .

Both have strong spiritual credentials and will continue the role of clergy at the top of the country’s pyramid of power.

Arafi is a member of the parent council, which comes to a decision on who can run for all other national offices, and was previously responsible for the country’s universities.

Qomi has been refused. 1 or 2 of more than one specialized workplace near Khamenei may be reliable, and world members of the family may be professionals.

“Pezeshkian is an establishment figure,” said Mir Javadenfar, an Iran expert at Reichman College. Despite being reformists, they have close ties to the deep state (aka, the regime). I believe Khamenei allowed him to run because he realized Iran needed to make domestic reforms, especially in the economy. To do this, Khamenei needs people who have comparatively greater legitimacy; It idealizes reformists.”

Javadenfar, the closest, said, “I believe that Pezeshkian’s victory significantly increases the chances of a more limited nuclear deal between Iran and the US. The Iranian government is scared of Trump. “It will be much more difficult to reach an agreement with him, because he killed (IRGC Quds Force chief) Qassem Soleimani.”

At the same time, he said, “Iran’s economy needs money frozen abroad. Therefore, reaching a limited agreement with (Joe) Biden before the US elections is an opportunity that I believe the Iranians will take.

He further said, “Khamenei will not abandon Iran’s relations with Russia and China. Yet, he also realizes that Iran’s economy is the regime’s weak link. So I don’t think he will oppose a limited nuclear deal and efforts to improve relations with the EU.