Mexico EV gross sales record: 90% year-on-year increase in June brings EV marketplace percentage to 2.5%!

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Home to the biggest and best auto industry in the Latin United States, Mexico was a latecomer to the electrification race, offering marginal EV gross sales by the end of 2021 (with a sub-0.1% BEV market percentage). In the following period, it was a PHEV-centric market, with plug-in hybrids set to make at least some presence, and BEVs absent from the market. See chart for 2021-2022:

There has been consistent growth (~100% each year) for EVs over a maximum of 3 years. However, it is BEV sales that have exploded (400% growth in 2022, 300% in 2023) while PHEV sales have grown much less (~25% growth in 2022 and 2023). With EV expansion set to peak in 2024, and Mexico becoming a region where Chinese EV makers will compete against established US manufacturers, it certainly becomes one of the interesting markets to watch.

general market valuation

So far, 2024 has brought a steady growth in EV sales, now not just year-on-year, but also date on date – March, May and June have all brought untouched data in the country.

In terms of market-share, Mexico lags behind the regional leaders (Costa Rica and Uruguay) and “second-tier” markets (Colombia and Brazil), but is still a notable participant, accounting for 2.5% percent (for BEVs alone. 2%) has been crossed. June, up 1.2% from a year earlier.

This graph shows that PHEV gross sales are almost consistent, and even though they increased year-over-year, this happened because they fell in the first half of 2023:

We don’t know the market leaders… although we can guess

There was a theme running through this record: We don’t know who the Mexican market is.

The views offered by Mexico’s professional institutions only track sales of manufacturers that have joined the Mexican Automobile Trade Association… and the most likely market leaders (Tesla, BYD, and probably SEV) don’t have it. Is. This means that even though we have access to overall data on EV sales, we only have data specific to models from different manufacturers.

Checking out that very long list and finding all the EVs hidden in it, we found that the Volvo EX30 has been a surprise success, registering 1,561 units in the first six months of 2023. JAC also has some valuable selling models (e-Sunray van, with 1,001 sales, and the affordable E10X, with 874 sales), followed by the ORA 03 (517 sales) and Renault Kwid e-Tech (250 sales). Even without BYD, China’s presence in this list is clear!

With the available knowledge we can infer additional information. Total BEV gross sales throughout 2024 have been just over 12,000 devices, but I managed to track down only a portion of them in the checklist in terms of fashion: Meaning BYD, Tesla and SEVs are private players in the Mexican EV marketplace. and even if SEV is aiming to grow into a known logo in Mexico, I’m not sure it’s a fat player but. What this mainly means is that BYD and Tesla, combined, will likely have at least 5,000 registrations so far this year, and possibly a minute more. My guess is that at the top of the list, the EVs listed so far are the BYD Seagull, Tesla Fashion 3, Tesla Fashion Y and BYD Track (possibly in that form).

Most of all, it is interesting to note the disappearance of Hyundai/Kia from this list. The Hyundai Kona is completely absent, the Kia Niro is only bought as an HEV, and the EV6 and Ioniq 5 each sell for less than $60. Kia is planning EV production in Mexico at this very moment: could it be that it is hoping for local manufacturing so as not to destroy its stream factories in the country?

Mexico is accelerating EV manufacturing

Mexico is probably the only country in the world where gross sales data in the context of fashion is not voluntarily available, but automobile manufacturing data is. This means that even though we can’t provide market leaders in terms of registration progress, we still have some interesting information regarding EVs. Production This year so far:

Much has been said about Chinese manufacturers taking over the Mexican scene, but for now Mexico is overrun by American manufacturers, especially Ford and GM. The aging Ford Mustang Mach-E was the leader as far as production went, but nearly 100% of these were in the United States or elsewhere (only 72 were sold in Mexico); The Altium siblings follow closely behind (without registration in Mexico)… and in an independent fourth playground, there is the JAC e-Sunray van.

Mexican manufacturing has been in line with US demand from the beginning, so there is not much to be learned from this information specifically related to Mexico. Alternatively, as perhaps the most prominent production centers in the entire Americas, Mexican manufacturing may also be outdated as a proxy for determining what is happening in alternative markets, essentially – though now completely. Not from – America.

There appears to be a striking contrast between the ramp-up of the Altium siblings (Blazer and Equinox EV) and the declining production of the Mustang Mach-E. The former is intended to be a cornerstone of the Altium ramp-up for General Motors and will go on sale in Mexico in a few months. Manufacturing peaked in April, although June was not far behind, and, if gross sales hold up, we should see even better numbers in the coming months. I’ve said it before, but it bears repeating: I have high expectations for the Equinox EV in the Latin American market.

(Oh, and don’t let the October knowledge fool you. The Blazer has been in manufacturing since early 2023 – Chevrolet recorded an entire semester’s production, and therefore top volume, on that one date.)

Meanwhile, the Mach-E has been hit by some serious blues, and production has currently fallen somewhat below its peak a year ago. It frankly surprises me that after a four-year bull run, Ford hasn’t been able to turn a profit on this automobile. And Promote it at a price that brings in plenty of demand to maintain ramped production. If (and this could be a big deal) GM manages to turn a profit on the Altium siblings by the end of 2024, as Ibarra says they can, that means the company could be in the red in two years. May succeed in doing what Ford could not. In 4.

According to our list, as far as JAC is concerned, its production provides the maximum Latin demand of the United States for this logo, which means that both the E-Sunray and the E10X are the most sought-after cars south of the Rio Bravo. There are models (sometimes the E-Sei 4 and others seem to be on their way). This is in line with guidelines available in alternative markets… and though I was surprised: the e-SEI 4 (E40X in some markets) is a handsome CUV.

At best, it looks like the Jeep Wagoneer is an original build. I’m not too fond of large SUVs, but every EV on the market is one less ICE car, so I wish this plentiful Jeep all the best. Would you possibly swallow the market percentage of your gasoline-thirsty brethren!

final thoughts

Mexico has bottomed out, although it has been rising for a generation now, enough to claim that this is a continuing trend. More importantly, apart from year-on-year growth, there has been an increase on date, due to which the advent of affordable EVs is making a relic and we are seeing a continuous increase in the pastime.

Alternatively, 2.5% is still too low, and especially for a huge market like Mexico. Inertia is a powerful force, and if some smaller markets can trade off very quickly, I doubt Mexico will be able to do so faster than the country ramps up significant EV manufacturing. The good news is: That year won’t be too far away.