Novak Djokovic should be nervous about Alcaraz’s threat to Slam record

No matter what happens in Sunday’s Wimbledon final, Novak Djokovic will leave with a lead in the all-time Grand Slam race that seems permanently secure.

No matter what happens, he will retire with an edge over Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer. Everyone else is so far behind that the numbers seem irrelevant. Does it really matter whether Djokovic has 24 or 25 majors as he begins the inevitable end of his career at age 37?

That could happen – only because of the man who will be standing in front of Djokovic at the net on Sunday.

Carlos Alcaraz heads into the Wimbledon final with a chance to make history. He could become the ninth man in the Open era to visit consecutive All-England Clubs and the sixth man to complete the French Open-Wimbledon double.

But if Alcaraz wins his fourth Grand Slam title on Sunday, Djokovic will need to worry about whether he has enough breathing room.

It sounds absurd, doesn’t it? Four is still a long way from 24. So many things can happen in a tennis career, from injuries to lack of motivation, to another worthy opponent coming along and winning their share of titles, that the chances of anyone being able to catch Djokovic remain slim for a long time.

But based on what we’ve seen from Alcaraz already, and what’s almost certainly next in his development, it’s not crazy to think he has a real chance to reach the 20s. If we’re looking forward a decade and a half into the future when Alcaraz is the same age Djokovic is now, would it be a big surprise if we remember this Wimbledon final as a pivotal moment in their Grand Slam rivalry ?

Here’s a simple case of why Djokovic should feel a little threatened by the prospect of Alcaraz breaking his most important record one day.

• Not only has Alcaraz won three Slams at the age of 21, but she has done so on three different surfaces. He won’t end up like Pete Sampras, who never explored clay. He’s not going to be like Ivan Lendl, who couldn’t reach the finish line on grass. Barring injury, Alcaraz is going to compete at every Grand Slam for the foreseeable future, and the fact that he has struggled at the Australian Open so far (relatively speaking) is mostly bad/unlucky timing. There is no doubt that he will eventually win there to complete the career Slam.
• No one in the top group of young players is in Alcaraz’s weight class. Yes, his rivalry with 22-year-old Jannik Sinner has produced some great matches, and Sinner has won his share of matches (Alcaraz leads 5-4). But Sinner, who won the Australian Open this year, has not shown that he is consistently good at surviving physically in tough matches in the five-set format. Alcaraz has already overtaken Daniil Medvedev, Alexander Zverev and the rest. They can beat Alcaraz on the right day, but overall they aren’t really a threat to him. There are only Djokovic and Sinner, and Djokovic won’t last much longer.
• Alcaraz has already reached the level where he can win Grand Slams even without playing his best tennis. For everyone else, things have to line up perfectly for one to win. Alcaraz entered this year’s French Open with question marks about an arm injury, played at maybe 80 percent of his ability with several bad spells during the tournament, but still won because he was great in the clutch.
• If Alcaraz wins an average of 1 1/2 Grand Slam titles per year over the next decade, he will have 18 titles by the age of 31. While this doesn’t just seem within reach at this point, it may be a conservative estimate of his ability.
• And perhaps the biggest factor in all this: Alcaraz still has a lot of room to improve. Their service should improve. His shot selection can be improved with his experience. His temptation to take layups instead of solid shots, which sometimes gets him into trouble, should diminish over time. Eventually he will learn to fight lapses in focus. As good as Alcaraz is now, he isn’t as good as he should have been in his prime.

Although it already seemed like Alcaraz was a generational talent when she played in her first Wimbledon final last year, inserting her name into the Grand Slam record conversation would have been ridiculous at the time. He had only one US Open title on his resume and was a significant underdog to Djokovic, whose seven Wimbledon titles trail only Federer’s eight.

When Alcaraz won the match in five sets, it was the first real tectonic shift in the power structure of tennis. Although Djokovic responded with an incredible slump, including a loss at the US Open, the kids took control of the game in the first half of 2024, while Djokovic’s health and motivation to grind on physically suddenly came into question, Because he played very little. And a poor performance at the Australian Open throughout the spring.

A few weeks ago, it didn’t look like Djokovic would get a chance to add a 25th major this summer — or perhaps ever after he had to pull out of the French Open quarterfinals due to a knee injury.

Djokovic opted for immediate surgery, and the conventional thinking was that he wanted, if possible, to be healthy for the Olympics, which is the only major he has never won. Instead, he felt enough progress to enter Wimbledon, holding a very favorable draw and using his experience and cleverness on grass to reach the final without even having to push himself hard.

At this stage of his career, this is the formula Djokovic needs to add more Slams. This time things went right for him, and his only real test will be in the final – a match he can surely win.

But unlike last year, Alcaraz is the favorite this time. He knows how to handle Grand Slam finals mentally and physically, and his top level is at least equal to Djokovic’s top level in 2024, or maybe even better.

Djokovic may have enough potential to capture a few more Grand Slam titles, but he will never get a better chance than Wimbledon, on a surface where his physical decline is not as big a factor as it is difficult. Court or clay.

This is a real opportunity to put more distance between ourselves and Alcaraz in the history books. The way things are trending, Djokovic may need it in the future.