Opinion Gaza ceasefire commitment appears to be achieved

Officials have warned that even if the framework levels the playing field, a final agreement is almost certainly not getting closer, and key points are complex and could hinder work.

If a final commitment can be reached, it would be a resounding validation of President Biden’s patient international engagement, which has attempted to balance the United States’ role as a peacemaker in the Middle East with strong military support for Israel. Have done. It could also create a potential farewell to life for the president, giving him a chance to honorably withdraw from his quest for a second term or, conversely, to double down on what I’m sick of.

Like maximum holiday assurances, this will partly reflect each party’s exhaustion. Over the next nine months of war, Israel wants to maintain its troops and be prepared for a possible conflict with Iran and its proxies. Hamas, according to an American official, is in “poor condition” in its underground lair, which it claims is short of ammunition and supplies. It also faces the growing power of battered Palestinian civilians, who are becoming increasingly vocal in their calls for an easier ceasefire.

The commitment, described Wednesday by US officials, envisions a three-stage solution to the war. The first would be a six-week ceasefire, during which Hamas would release 33 Israeli hostages, including all female prisoners, all men over the age of 50, and all wounded. Israel will release large numbers of Palestinians from its prisons and withdraw its troops from densely populated areas towards the Japanese border in Gaza. Humanitarian aid will flow, hospitals can be repaired, and workers will begin clearing debris.

The biggest hurdle is a change whereby Hamas would release the male infantrymen held as hostages and each side agree to a “permanent end to hostilities” with a “complete withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza”. Each side feared that the alternative would be to retreat and return to war over initial inaction. And Israel wanted to make sure it accomplished its first task of preventing Hamas from regaining control of Gaza.

The move comes just days after Hamas softened its demand for a written promise on a permanent end to the fighting. Rather, it approved the reassuring language of the UN Security Council resolution passed last year, which took forward the US-negotiated offer. The key point here is this: The UN resolution says, “If negotiations for the first phase take more than six weeks, the ceasefire will continue while negotiations continue.” American, Qatari and Egyptian mediators “will work to ensure that negotiations continue until all agreements are reached and the second phase begins.”

Both Israel and Hamas have indicated acceptance of an “interim governance” plan that could begin with Section 2, whereby neither Hamas nor Israel would rule Gaza. Security could be provided through a force trained by the United States and subsidized by moderate Arab allies, drawn from a core contingent of about 2,500 supporters of the Palestinian Authority in Gaza who are already investigated by Israel. has been done. Hamas has instructed mediators that it is “prepared to relinquish authority over an interim governance arrangement,” an American official said.

As security in Gaza expands after the war, the holiday plan envisions a third phase, which the UN resolution describes as a “multi-year reconstruction plan”.

As US mediators moved closer to finalizing the proposal, they were given the most significant support from their diplomatic allies, Qatar and Egypt. To put pressure on Hamas, Qatar instructed representatives of the group that they could no longer stay in Doha if they rejected the agreement. Egypt has prepared a last-minute backup by accepting a cutting-edge US proposal to cancel any ancient tunnels along the border between Egypt and Gaza, the closest Israel has withdrawn its troops.

Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Galant, who has emerged as a key player in the talks, issued a statement On Wednesday progress was made toward a plan with Egypt that would prevent smuggling efforts and potentially cut off supplies to Hamas.

If the ceasefire proposal is achieved, it would pave the way for two alternative major changes in the Middle East park – involving Lebanon and Saudi Arabia – which would avert the risk of wider conflict.

Lebanon has indicated that after the Gaza ceasefire, it would support an agreement that would come with the withdrawal of Hezbollah forces north from the border along the Litani River. This commitment would also come with Israel’s acceptance of border changes that Hezbollah has long demanded and would alternate confidence-building measures to end the destructive exchanges of rocket firing between the two sides.

The Lebanon framework was negotiated through Amos Hochstein, a member of the staff organization of Nationwide Security Assistant Jake Sullivan. Instead of talking immediately with Hezbollah, the Iranian-backed force that dominates Beirut, Hochstein has met with Nabih Berri, the Shiite speaker of the Lebanese parliament and Hezbollah’s best friend.

The final potential benefit of the Gaza ceasefire is that Saudi Arabia has signaled that it is ready to “move toward normalizing” relations with Israel, according to a US official. Riyadh wants a path toward the Palestinian environment as part of such a proposal, but at present this is a bridge too far for a hurt Israel. Finalizing normalization will be an improvement on the past and diplomatic maneuvering.

The Gaza war has been a nightmare for all combatants – culminating in Hamas’s serious terrorist attack on October 7, which resulted in Israeli retaliation, killing thousands of Palestinians. It was also a tough test for Biden, who has attempted to be Israel’s best friend while clashing with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu over the war’s civilian toll.

As strategist Fred Ikley wrote about Vietnam, “Every war must end.” Gaza is not over. However, as a White House official said late Wednesday: “Fingers crossed.”