Paul George is a bit old-fashioned. It’s been half a decade since the NBA has seen a true superstar free agent. Kyrie Irving was nominally available last offseason, but was quickly re-signed and James Harden opted to join instead of exploring the market last summer. The 2022 offseason had a superstar in hiding, but no one knew yet what Jalen Brunson would become. The 2020 and 2021 offseasons were largely ruined by the extensions that came before free agency. The best free agents to consider moving on were players like Gordon Hayward and DeMar DeRozan, and neither got the max. You have to go back to 2019, when Irving, Kevin Durant, Jimmy Butler, and George’s (former?) teammate Kawhi Leonard moved on to find a free agent of this caliber that was actually available.
And he’s treating it like a proper sweepstakes, Leonard was actually the last star free agent to set up meetings with a potential suitor, which was the style of the 2010s, before free agency was largely replaced by forced trades. There is a degree of spectacle here that has been largely absent from recent star activities. This is not a conversation. It’s a chase. At least three teams will openly try to convince George that they belong where he is. It’s possible that mystery teams may attempt to join the fray in the coming days. We cannot make accurate predictions because we do not know how well any of these presentations will do.
So let’s try to preview George’s free agency to see what each team can offer. Why should George choose or not choose the Clippers, 76ers or Magic? And if there’s going to be a mystery team, who could it be? Here’s everything you need to know about the George Sweepstakes.
los angeles clippers
Nobody likes to move. Granted, it’s a little easier when you have a nine-figure contract coming in, but all things being equal, I think most of us would want to live in Los Angeles, especially those who already live in Los Angeles. , and especially for those who grew up in Los Angeles. George tried hard to become a Clipper. He is, to date, the only player to lead a franchise to the Western Conference Finals. This is not something to be thrown away lightly.
There is a world in which George lives, the Clippers win championships and he is eternally regarded as a franchise icon. That 26-5 stretch in December and January may have been brief, but it was real. The Clippers ranked first in offense by a mile during that run and trailed only Boston and Cleveland in net rating. It’s enough of a proof of concept, or at least, one of the key parts of it, to believe that this team could really contend moving forward, assuming the return of James Harden.
Here the question is about money. A four-year max offer from another team would come in at around $212 million. The Clippers signed Kawhi Leonard to a three-year, $153 million contract in January. That seems to be the baseline in the George talks. How significant is that $59 million difference? Well, it’s hard to say. Remember, the Clippers’ contract is one year shorter. Barring a complete collapse, George will still be drawing a salary heading into his age-37 season. There is going to be a significant increase in the salary cap during that time. If it reaches the 10% threshold each year, that would come to about $188 million the next time George becomes free agency. He probably isn’t making $59 million as a 37-year-old. If he follows a traditional aging curve, something like $20-25 million – not much more than mid-level money up to that point – seems possible.
Of course, it would make perfect sense for George to prioritize guarantees. He has suffered many injuries in his career. Why risk $59 million on your 37-year-old? To be fair, George has already taken a lot of risks. Part of the expansion calculation for Leonard was risk assessment. He took less than he made on the open market because he got the protection of an early signing. George didn’t. He earned the right to demand the maximum amount which many teams seem willing to pay him. If the Clippers don’t do it, it’s not hard to see why he might feel a little humiliated by it.
philadelphia 76ers
If you’re going to lend your wagon to an injury-plagued superstar, he might as well be young. Joel Embiid is 30 years old. Kawhi Leonard is 33 years old. James Harden is 34 years old. Tyrese Maxey is 23 years old. Embiid is the best player in that group today. It’s possible that Maxi will be the best player of that group when George’s next contract expires. Reaching the NBA Finals out of the Eastern Conference is fundamentally easier than going out West. Reached more conference finals with Roy Hibbert and Lance Stephenson as his best teammates than George Leonard.
The Maxi-George-Embiid fit is as conservative as any star trio in basketball. This is a guard, a forward and a center. All three of them open fire. All three handle the ball. Two of them defend. They will be fantastic together. The 76ers will have cap space left to sign or trade for another starter. They will also have the cap room mid-tier exception. They also have several role players from last year’s roster such as Kyle Lowry and Nic Batum who appear to be beyond chasing every last dollar and could return for the minimum. Daryl Morey is one of the NBA’s most creative executives. The roster will have the imperfections that come with such a heavy salary structure, but it will be as efficient as possible. George will have a legitimate chance to win a championship in Philadelphia.
He will also get paid. Philadelphia comfortably has $49.4 million or so in the cap space they would need to offer George the four-year maximum. The Clippers could do that, but have decided not to make that offer yet. The Magic barely crossed the goal line by declining their option on Joe Ingles. If getting the maximum salary is a priority, Philadelphia checks that box. Of course, given the exorbitant cost of ultimately extending Maxi and surrounding him with a supporting cast of George and Embiid, Philadelphia could start running into other apron issues by the end of this contract.
The primary question here is one of lifestyle. Forget about going from coast to coast. Philadelphia fans are some of the craziest in all of sports. Due to how much more popular the Lakers are, the Clippers go largely unnoticed in Los Angeles. This is not happening with the 76ers. Does George want to deal with all the pressure that will come with playing in Philly? it’s hard to say. Not all players are made for this.
orlando magic
If making money is George’s primary goal, Orlando is his choice. Like Philadelphia, the Magic could offer George a four-year max deal. The difference is that Florida does not have a state income tax. George will be able to keep a greater percentage of his earnings playing for the Magic than for the 76ers (or the Clippers, who play in high-tax California). Ironically, Daryl Morey used the lack of state income tax as a selling point for free agents for years while running the Houston Rockets. Now it’s working against him as he leads the Pennsylvania-based 76ers.
The Magic also have the longest runway of any of these teams. They currently have nine players under contract. Jonathan Isaac is the oldest at 27 years old. Everyone else is between 21 and 25 years old. Franz Wagner and Jalen Suggs are still a year away from rookie extensions. Paolo Banchero is two years away. George will arrive in Orlando as the primary option. As children mature into adulthood, they may gradually move into a supporting role. The Magic won’t have to worry about second apron problems during this George contract, or at least not until the end. Magic will give George a permanent winner.
But this group has never won a playoff series. Is George really ready to stake his last chance to win a title on such a young team? Perhaps just as importantly, is he willing to take a bet on such unorthodox? The Orlando run offense is through two forwards in Banchero and Wagner. That big size made him difficult to defend last season and George will only add to that. Suggs had a real case for Defensive Player of the Year. Wendell Carter’s shooting at center is rare. But when points become hard to come by late in the playoffs, sometimes it helps to have a normal point guard on the roster. How many times did George learn that lesson with the Clippers? For lack of a more beautiful phrase, magic would be very strange indeed. Weird isn’t necessarily bad. This is absolutely strange. Some 34-year-olds are more interested in weird things than others. We’ll see if George is ready to play for such an unusual type of team.
Mystery teams?
For now, it appears George is only meeting teams with maximum cap space who actually have a chance to compete. The piston has maximum cap space. Jazz is not far away. They are not contenders at all. They may try to convince George otherwise. However, for now, they are probably out of the equation.
Do you know who the contender is? Oklahoma City? Do you know where George played from 2017 to 2019? Oklahoma City. Do you know where George liked to live? Oklahoma City. Do you know who is on track to reach maximum cap space? You guessed it, Oklahoma City. If the Thunder are willing to trade Lou Dort for someone else’s cap space, they would have a ways to go to get closer to max space. George is clearly a huge upgrade on Dort. If he re-joins the Thunder, Oklahoma City will, at the very least, become a prohibitive Western Conference favorite, if not outright championship favorite.
It would be unfair for the Thunder to pursue George in a big way. Their roster-building has emphasized stability. Paying George the maximum for the next two years wouldn’t hurt. Doing that for the final two years of the deal, when Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren begin their rookie extensions, will be very difficult. Will the Thunder quickly establish themselves as the second apron team in a decade-long run? It is difficult to tell. Here we can comfortably say: Thunder moves silently. You won’t see Sam Presti in a hotel lobby before a pitch meeting. He won’t put any of his players on alert that they could be traded to free up cap space. If the Thunder are interested, we’ll hear about it when it’s done and not a second earlier, just like we did when Presti traded George to the Clippers in the first place.
Are there sign-and-trade possibilities? Potentially, but don’t hold your breath. If the Rockets were interested enough in George to seriously pursue him, they likely would have tried the opt-in-and-trade route. It seems as if Houston is waiting for the Phoenix stars or at least a young star before making their big move.
A trade for the Lakers would make a lot of sense, especially if LeBron James is willing to take a significant pay cut. The Lakers may throw several first-round picks at the Clippers. Now that D’Angelo Russell has chosen to work, he has equal pay for the work he does. They need another two-way wing, although George is no longer the point-of-attack defender he once was. If it’s not basketball related, the holdup here is probably ego. The Clippers wouldn’t want to help the Lakers, especially since they are about to move to a new area. Furthermore, the Lakers have not been linked to most stars this offseason. They seem to prioritize the idea of filling out the supporting cast with depth.
For now, it seems like a three-horse race. But free agency is unpredictable. Anyone can jump into the fray at any time. By opting out, George gave the market a chance to reset itself. Any teams with even remote interest are talking feasibility, at least for now. If there’s a way for another real contender to be worked into the mix, there’s a good chance we’ll find out about it.
