Preparation for Heart East Battle

Can Israel be opposed?

There are two issues in common in Heart East stories at this point: all parties want to avoid fighting, but the entire movement is towards one, aiming for Lebanon.

Israel’s military is preparing to expand the war into Lebanon, where it may face a more heavily armed enemy in addition to Hamas – several additional combat troops and an additional missile and drone arsenal that could threaten Israel’s Iron Dome defenses. It can prove costly.

However, Israel may receive support from the United States in its fight with Hezbollah, CNN reports. When top national security officials from the two countries met in June, US officials made that clear, CNN reported. , , That the Biden administration will provide necessary security assistance to Israel. , , However, America will not deploy American troops on the ground in such a scenario.

Such thinking is extremely disturbing. For the time being, the Biden administration is anxious to stay out of the Israel-Hezbollah conflict and has devoted diplomatic resources to containing it, with Israel practically screaming from the photos.

If continued shelling around the Lebanese border escalates and the Israelis suffer major losses, the United States will likely step in with a commendable exchange of additional assistance. Biden, at the weakest point of his presidency, proved incapable of taking a position on Israel.

Already, there is a valuable record that the stock the Biden management had placed on the supply of 2000-pound bombs to Israel was raised in Netanyahu’s noisy court cases. Israel is believed to lack those bombs for potential utility against Hezbollah. Regardless of the case, the removal of this minimal restriction shows that Israel will still get what it wants from the United States.

And then there are Israeli politics and Netanyahu’s ambitions. He is the latter’s political survivor, but could he know the real situation – the Israeli Model Court ruling that the government must begin recruiting ultra-religious youth for military service? Netanyahu’s government is determined by the support of ultra-religious parties and far-right individuals in his cabinet. Should those two teams bolt, his management is in serious trouble.

As Ravit Hecht writes in Haaretz: “The two pillars on which Netanyahu’s political career rests – religious Zionism and the Haredim – are in a life-and-death struggle with each other, and feel mutually betrayed.” So far, Netanyahu’s best solution has been additional conflict.

Can Iran be opposed?

Iran also reportedly wants to avoid supporting Hezbollah in a full-scale war, even if Israel launches a full-scale attack on Lebanon, despite its latest warning of a “catastrophic war.” Iran has ample reasons for war: it will soon elect an unelected president to replace hard-liner Ibrahim Raisi, who was killed in a helicopter skirmish; There are a large number of issues with its economic system; And the struggle to be had, given its nuclear facilities, which global observers have said are being expanded, will be a true entertainment for Israel.

The low turnout in the election, in which only about 40 percent of eligible citizens voted, was interpreted by some commentators as a criticism of the regime. This was the lowest turnout since the 1979 revolution.

In the preliminary round, reformist lawmaker Massoud Pezeshkian won, but failed to win 50 percent of the vote over hard-line former nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili. A runoff would most likely have been held on July 5, with Jalili preferred to win because he could draw from another very conservative candidate who came in third.

Jalili’s victory is a sign of malaise for Iran’s restraint in the Israel-Hezbollah war. He is known for being staunchly anti-Western and anti-Israel. He has long opposed restarting talks that would put the 2015 nuclear deal back on a level playing field.

A face-off between Jalili and Netanyahu could be disastrous. Let us remember that during April, Iran attacked Israel without the first hour of delay. Believe me, if Israel had to compete with Iran’s nuclear enrichment plants. Iran will get every kind of encouragement to end its nuclear bomb program.

Stop-fire in Gaza is very powerful

The important thing to fight the Israel-Hezbollah conflict is the Israel-Hamas ceasefire. Unless the Biden leadership is willing to put serious pressure on Netanyahu’s government to accept a permanent ceasefire and end the war with Hamas, Hezbollah will have a very difficult time preparing for the Israeli Defense Forces. There will be every encouragement.

And no one is more aware of this than IDF commanders, which is why they are arguing with Netanyahu behind the scenes to bring the fighting in Gaza to a close. But he won’t do that, and once again he appears to have ensnared Biden by refusing to threaten Israel.

An unnamed US security sector professional says: “We have let Israel face zero consequences for crossing all our red lines in Gaza, so they are courageous and know they will face no consequences if they go into Lebanon. You will have to, despite us saying, ‘Don’t go’ there.”

Biden, “is pushing for not getting involved (in the war), but us saying ‘we will support Israel’ I don’t think is helping,” says one environment section professional.

Now, not to help, but to put it mildly., American policy toward Israel is tantamount to a green light for broader conflict.