Rob Dillingham trade grade: Spurs, Timberwolves both win deals in one of the NBA Draft’s most unconventional deals

Rob Dillingham was widely expected to be included in the top 10 on Wednesday, and sure enough, he went at No. 8 overall. What no one saw coming was the team that drafted him. This was not a lottery team. No, the Minnesota Timberwolves, who came just three games away from the NBA Finals, moved up to No. 8 to land a potential cornerstone young piece. Meanwhile, the Spurs walked away with an unprotected 2031 first-round pick and a protected 2030 first-round swap.

Such a move is basically unprecedented in draft history. Sure, teams will trade lottery selections for future picks from time to time, but 2031 is seven years away. Meanwhile, the Timberwolves, a team that is apparently in a position to win right now, took a strong hit on a good college player. So what’s happening here? Why did these teams make this trade? Well, let’s categorize it and explain the thought process for both sides. In short: it’s a win-win deal.

Minnesota Timberwolves: A

Is Rob Dillingham going to be a major contributor in Minnesota’s push to a 2025 championship? Probably not. Rookie guards are almost never good enough to help teams win at the highest level. Dillingham is small and needs to work on his body. He’ll have to develop as a passer before he can be called a point guard, though for what it’s worth, that position will be less demanding in Minnesota than elsewhere due to how often Anthony Edwards handles the ball. This is a long-term pick for Minnesota.

This may seem unconventional considering where he is, but remember, Mike Conley is 36 years old. He won’t last forever. Minnesota needed to find a long-term replacement somehow, and they are hampered by the second luxury tax apron. Their ability to add proven, NBA talent is minimal right now. Could they try to select another player in Conley’s spot at No. 27? Sure. But what were the chances that they would find anyone there? Even in a normal draft, starters rarely reach their late 20s. In this weak draft, it just wasn’t going to happen.

In Dillingham, the Timberwolves have not only got a potential long-term starter, but potentially a star. Given Dillingham’s overall offensive game and athleticism, his upside is as high as any prospect in the draft. He may need a few years to develop, and he may not be a traditional point guard like Conley, but think about the age of some of Minnesota’s key players. Edwards is 22 years old. Jaden McDaniels is 23 years old. Naz Reid is 24 years old. Ultimately, the Timberwolves will likely have to gamble on either Rudy Gobert or Karl-Anthony Towns. Potentially both of them. This is the reality of the second-apron NBA. The Edwards-McDaniels-Reed trio was their long-term core. Now they’ve added a fourth to that group, and all four of them are young enough to figure out their fit as they move forward.

If Dillingham succeeds, the Timberwolves could well compete for a title once Towns and Gobert age out. Given their financial constraints, the options the Jazz already had and the rarity with which prospects like Dillingham are traded, Minnesota was never going to get another chance at a home run swing like this. The Timberwolves took it. If things go poorly in the interim, the 2031 pick could be worth a lot, but if so, well, they’re already worth a pretty penny. Can last up to one pound. They’re getting a very high pick here in Dillingham, and considering where this team is at, it makes more sense for them to take a player now rather than waiting seven years for a complete unknown.

San Antonio Spurs: A

Most teams use draft night to build for the next few years. Spurs, with Victor Wembanyama, are taking the very long view. Over the past few years, they have slowly accumulated a deep war chest of draft picks for the future. 2028 pick swap with the Celtics. 2030 swap with Dallas. Now, another 2030 swap as well as an unprotected pick in 2031 from the Timberwolves. Throw in the 2025 and 2027 picks that the Spurs have from Atlanta, the 2026 swap the Hawks owe and the protected pick finally coming from Chicago, thanks to DeMar DeRozan. With the trade and suddenly, the Spurs are set to control at least one of another team’s first-round picks in every draft from now through 2031 with the exception of 2029.

Why is this so important? As is most of the roster-building stories these days, the answer is on the second apron. Spurs want to win indefinitely around Vembanyama. This is the team that won 50 games for 18 consecutive years during the Tim Duncan era. They were never going to be fully involved in the same brief period. No, rather, the Spurs have determined that the path to indefinite victory in the second apron era is to continually incorporate new, cheap rookies with high-upside picks accumulated from other teams. After all, if Vembanayama is as good as we all expect, his own pick will be the bottom of the first round.

Think about where Spurs are today. Could Dillingham have been their main piece? Sure. But to be honest, Spurs have enough young talent. They already need to find minutes and shots for Wembanyama, No. 4 pick Stephon Cassel, Devin Vassell, Jeremy Sochan, Keldon Johnson and last season’s entire young group. With so many picks coming up and cap space to spend on veterans, they didn’t want another high draft pick to be lost in the developmental shuffle.

Now imagine where the Spurs will be in 2031. Vembanyama will probably be on a super-max contract by then. Presumably, at least one other young Spur would have developed into an expensive All-Star. At that point, they might be vying for another cheap youngster. Could Minnesota be selecting late in the first round? Sure. If Edwards is there and happy, the Timberwolves could still be pretty good. The four-man core we discussed above can still win seven years from now.

But think about how long seven years really is. Seven years ago, Kyrie Irving was coming off his third straight trip to the NBA Finals with the Cleveland Cavaliers. Who would have guessed that he would have changed teams three times since then? Seven years is an eternity in the modern NBA. Edwards could become dissatisfied at any time in that time period and force him out. If he does that, that selection becomes incredibly valuable.

Now consider the other picks San Antonio will control in the future. Dallas also has a young star in Luka Doncic. Boston has two in Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown. Atlanta thought it had one in Trae Young when it paid a king’s ransom for Dejounte Murray. The Spurs have deliberately attempted to play down these teams, figuring that recent NBA history shows that at least some of them will incinerate as Irving’s Cavaliers did. They are, essentially, buying multiple lottery tickets in the hope that some of them will be successful. And if they do? The Spurs will be able to surround Vembanyama with high draft picks for at least the entire first half of his career.

Oklahoma City has adopted a similar strategy and taken things a step further by trading an outright pick for a future swap. The Spurs and Thunder are two of the smartest teams in the NBA, and they have embraced the second apron before the rest of the league has caught on. They understand that you can’t expect to keep a group of four or five extremely expensive players together forever. If you want to fight indefinitely, you have to be skilled. You have to have a constant stream of draft picks coming in to replace the players who cost the second apron.

The Spurs may have given Minnesota a young star in Dillingham, but that’s a player they ultimately decided they’d rather try to get than Wembanyama when he’s 27 rather than 20. He has refused to invest too much in a single crop. The young players are now in a position to build and rebuild winners around themselves for the coming decade.

So was the price high? Certainly, especially since Minnesota will soon be competing with San Antonio in the Western Conference. But Spurs have a plan and they’re sticking to it. This trade was the most extreme example of the approach he has taken over the past two years.