Russia is stepping up its offensive in Ukraine and issuing unused ultimatums as the West tries to blunt the hysteria

Slowly but steadily this summer, Russian troops have been pushing through Ukraine’s weak and under-equipped security forces in a sustained assault, giving the West an emphasis on unused guns and methods to corner Kiev. Being inspired to give.

President Vladimir Putin, in turn, has announced an unused ultimatum to retaliate against the West – either without delay or indirectly.

Western attacks to blunt the offensive and a potential Kremlin response could lead to a dangerous escalation as the war stretches into its third life – further raising the risk of immediate war between Russia and NATO.

Russia’s aggressive investigation

Russia took advantage of its edge in firepower amid delays in US aid to increase attacks in other areas with a 1,000-kilometre (600 mi) gateway. Much smaller tools are probing Ukrainian security for weak spots, potentially creating a level playing field for a more progressive push.

Like Russia’s invasion of Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second-largest city, which began in May and horrified Kiev’s Western allies, the Ukrainian military appears to have got the wrong momentum, redeploying troops from alternative areas. By doing this he strengthened his army in the area.

Meanwhile, Russia has made incremental but steady advances into the Donetsk pocket, including the city of Chasiv Yar, a gateway to parts of Donetsk still under Ukrainian control. Analysts say the fall of Chasiv Yar would threaten the key military centers of Sloviansk and Kramatorsk.

Putin declared that Moscow is not looking for increasingly positive factors and will remain on the path of a gradual wave of advances.

Jack Watling of the Royal United Services and Products Institute said that by drawing Ukrainian forces across a broad front, Russia is overcoming the restrictions of its own army which lacks the size and training for a major attack.

“The enormity of the advances has forced Ukraine to deploy its artillery,” he said in an analysis, “with ammunition being expended to break up the relentless Russian attacks.” Kilometer-by-kilometre along the front. Move forward continuously.”

Michael Kauffman of the Carnegie Endowment said Russia’s apparent goal is to maintain pressure and try to build up Ukraine’s military. He said that even if Ukraine managed to stabilize the front line, it had to use reserves intended to be deployed elsewhere.

“Because of this, it will take longer and longer to really revive Ukraine’s combat power,” he said in a recent podcast.

Moscow has also stepped up airstrikes with missiles and drones on Ukraine’s energy facilities and other critical infrastructure. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said the country had lost about 80% of its thermal energy and a third of its hydroelectric power in the attacks.

“This will be a growing problem when we talk about Ukraine’s economic viability in the future,” Kofman said.

Watling said the lack of air defenses was giving Ukraine a difficult choice between focusing on protecting critical infrastructure or protecting troops on the front.

“The persistence of Russia’s long-range strike campaign means that not only is the front being extended laterally, but it is also being expanded in depth,” he said.

The West responds, the Kremlin responds

Washington and some NATO allies have responded aggressively by allowing Kiev to use Western weapons for limited attacks inside Russia. The US has given Ukraine permission to use US weapons against military targets in Russia near Kharkiv and elsewhere near the border, but, to Kiev’s dismay, Washington has so far refused to allow strikes deep into Russia. Not given.

French President Emmanuel Macron and some other Western officials argue that Kiev has the right to use its equipment to attack military assets anywhere in Russia. There has been talk by Macron and the leaders of NATO’s Baltic members – but not the US – of deploying troops to Ukraine.

Putin warned that this would be a major escalation, and he threatened to retaliate by providing weapons to Western adversaries anywhere in the world.

He strengthened that argument by signing a mutual defense agreement with North Korea in June and leaving the door open to arms supplies to Pyongyang.

He declared that just as the West says Ukraine can decide how to use Western weapons, Moscow can provide weapons to North Korea and “in the same way say we supply something to someone but its We have no control over what happens next” – a clear hint at Pyongyang’s role as an arms trader.

Dmitry Medvedev, deputy head of Russia’s Security Council, said Moscow could arm anyone who considers the US and its allies its enemy, “regardless of their political beliefs and international recognition.”

Another threat of escalation followed a Ukrainian attack with US-made ATACMS missiles, which killed four people and injured more than 150 in Sevastopol on the Crimean peninsula, which Russia illegally annexed in 2014. Russia’s Defense Ministry warned it may take unspecified measures against US drones over the Black Sea. The sea that provides intelligence to Ukraine.

Nuclear threat and Putin’s long game

Putin said it was wrong for NATO to assume that Russia would not use its nuclear arsenal, affirming that it would use “all means” if its sovereignty and territorial integrity were threatened.

He also warned that Moscow was considering possible changes to its doctrine that specifies when it resorts to nuclear weapons.

Underscoring this point, Russia conducted military exercises with battlefield nuclear weapons involving Belarus. Last year, Moscow deployed some of those weapons to Belarus to discourage Western military support for Ukraine.

Putin said that a military defeat in Ukraine would be a fatal blow to Russian statehood, and he vowed to pursue his goals “to the end.”

He announced that for Russia to stop the fighting, Ukraine would have to withdraw its troops from four regions that Moscow had captured by 2022, an idea rejected by Kiev and its allies. He also said that Ukraine should give up its bid to join NATO.

Hawkish Russian commentators criticized Putin for failing to respond forcefully when NATO stepped up support for Kiev and for allowing the West to continually push back Russia’s red lines. Some argued that if Ukrainian attacks inside Russia with long-range Western missiles increased the damage, Moscow should attack NATO assets.

Moscow-based defense analyst Vassily Kashin said that while Ukraine has already used Western weapons to cause limited damage, Putin would have to “if there were cruise missile attacks inside Russian territory that resulted in significant casualties.” Something has to be done.”

Russia could respond by targeting Western drones or American spy satellites, Kashin said, or even attack some NATO countries’ assets in foreign territories to defuse an all-out conflict with the alliance.

However, other Russian commentators argued that such actions that could lead to a direct conflict with NATO are not in Moscow’s interests.

Moscow-based security analyst Sergei Poletaev said the Kremlin aims to steadily drain Ukrainian resources to force Kiev to accept a peace deal on Russia’s terms.

Although nothing spectacular is happening on the front lines, he said, “Continuing defeats wear away the stone.”

The qualifications of Moscow’s military allow it to “maintain pressure on the entire front line and make new advances while waiting for Ukraine to break through,” he said in a comment.

Faced with losing assets to a significant offensive, the Kremlin has opted for a gradual advance, Poletaev said, with the goal of “maintaining pressure on Ukraine while keeping the West away from direct involvement in hostilities.”

“We have to walk a sword’s edge between our victory and nuclear war,” he said.