S&P 500 Futures Maintain Close Document As Jobs Lands Knowledge

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• Fri, Jul 5, 2024 at 5:59am MST

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  The drive for the Fed’s behavior builds

  There’s no question what the story will come out of Friday’s jobs document – ​​the Fed risks ending up behind the hold curve.

  This means that the central storage facility may ultimately delay rates too much, just as many believe it was too slow to raise interest rates again in 2022.

  With the unemployment rate now at its highest level since November 2021, alternative wisdom such as a rise in jobless claims and a decline in job openings are beginning to seem to be sending a cloudless signal that headline job gains are overstated. It has been told. The energy of a hard-working market.

  Inflation remains sluggish relative to the Fed’s 2% target, although in the first few months of the 12-month period it looked like it would stall.

  Powell The Fed’s sensitivity to inflation data is working above its target, which is the 40-year peak price increase we see again in 2022 has been the biggest component of this policy stance. However, the tight market is an opening to speak louder and more clearly: things are getting tougher for additional workers.

  Renaissance Macro’s Neil Dutta, who has become the main voice on Wall Side Road saying the Fed should be more forceful in cutting rates this autumn, wrote in a few minutes in an upcoming Friday document. The note reads, “Today’s employment report should be expected as expectations for a rate cut in September are strengthening, economic conditions are cooling and this makes the trade-off different for the Fed.”

  In Dutta’s view, the Fed’s July meeting should be keen to reduce the desk in September.

• Fri, Jul 5, 2024 5:54 am MST

  Activity gains ease, although unemployment rate reaches highest level since 2021

  While the United States’ tight work market added more jobs than expected in June, the unemployment rate suddenly surged to its highest level since November 2021, in another sign that the job market continues to cool.

  Data released Friday from the Bureau of Employment Statistics showed the U.S. economy added 206,000 non-farm payroll jobs in June, more than the 190,000 expected by economists.

  The unemployment rate rose to 4.1%, up from 4% in a day and the best increase in nearly 3 years. June’s job growth was a modest decline from May, leading to job gains revised down to 272,000 from 218,000 on Friday, the last futures report.

  Future prices soared higher after the document, including gains that saw markets trade at record highs for the period amid weaker-than-expected financial data, as well as readings on inflation that put the US on a “disinflationary path.” And makes you feel like growing again. “Federal Hold Chair Jerome Powell in Mind.