Stocks vary as investors wait for signs of inflation: Market bullish

(Bloomberg) — ECU shares opened with smaller moves as investors braced for political risks and inflation data that could potentially back up data bets on the outlook for international interest rates.

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The Stoxx 600 index weakened 0.1%, with little change in U.S. futures trading for the week. Most Asian equity benchmarks declined and a gauge of the dollar’s strength was safe. The Japanese yen was below $160 as the government legal tendered Masato Kanda, who said the government is capable of intervening to support it in life 24 hours a day if needed.

Buyers will be keeping a close eye on the first US presidential debate in attendance, with the first round of voting in the French legislative election this weekend set to rock the playing field.

Brands from New Zealand to Japan and the United States are at a critical juncture with the outlook for central bank policy rates rising heading into the second half of 2024. Inflation prints in Australia and Tokyo, as well as the Fed’s most-favored gauge of consumer costs, could potentially provide clues, but the political risks loom large.

BrandBob Savage, head of market strategy and insights at BNY Mellon in New York, said: “How the US dollar trades at the end of the month will be important for the direction of risk in the markets.” Political developments from the US to France “will set the tone for fiscal risks” in the coming days.

At the close of this position, the Fed’s commendable inflation benchmarks are set to become the lowest per month advance since the end of last year – which would likely pave the way for the authorities to start cutting interest rates. The Treasury’s 10-year handover was secured.

U.S. stocks fell on Friday, and investors and strategists began to question how long this year’s rally could last given growing bets on central financial institution rate cuts and election uncertainties in Europe.

The S&P 500 index has likely posted most of the gains it has seen this year as investors are becoming more and more concerned about the illiquid marketplace’s increasingly rich valuations, according to an untapped Bloomberg Markets Live Pulse survey published Monday.

The uncertainty indicators are worth noting as some of those surveyed say stocks will see a correction of at least 10% this year.

“The bottom line is that the current policy mix of heavy fiscal spending and tight interest rate policy is squeezing out many companies and consumers in a way that is not sustainable,” Morgan Stanley strategist Michael Wilson wrote in a note. “Investors have recognized this outcome by bidding up some of the shares of companies that are performing well in this environment.”

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In commodities, oil extended its decline from the previous consultation to $80 a barrel on a stronger dollar and a technical indicator suggesting the new rally has gone too far.

Major events on this occasion:

• The BOJ published a summary of the reviews from the June coverage meeting on Monday

• Singapore CPI, Monday

• Taiwan unemployment prices, commercial manufacturing, Monday

• Argentina unemployment, gross domestic product, Monday

• Storage of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem speaks on Monday

• San Francisco Fed President Mary Daley speaking on Monday

• Fed Governor Christopher Waller speaks on Monday

• Australia Customer Self-Assurance, Tuesday

• Malaysia CPI, Tuesday

• Canada CPI, Tuesday

• Spain GDP, Tuesday

• US Convention Board Customer Self Assurance, Tuesday

• Fed Governor Lisa Prepare dinner, Fed Governor Michelle Bowman speaks, Tuesday

• Australia CPI, Wednesday

• Debate between Britain’s top minister Rishi Sunak and Labor chief Keir Starmer, Wednesday

• Finland’s third global financial coverage conference begins on Wednesday

• RBA deputy governor Andrew Hauser speaks, Thursday

• Japan Retail Sales, Thursday

• Philippines Price Selection, Thursday

• China Commercial Earnings, Thursday

• Eurozone financial self-assurance, client self-assurance, Thursday

• BOE released financial stability list on Thursday

• Sweden Price Selection, Thursday

• Türkiye Price Selection, Thursday

• US Strong Commodities, Initial Jobless Claims, Gross Domestic Product, Wholesale Inventories, Thursday

• mexico unemployment, business, price options, thursday

• Japan Tokyo CPI, Unemployment, Commercial Manufacturing, Friday

• UK GDP, Friday

• France CPI, Friday

• Italy CPI, Friday

• Spain CPI, Friday

• Czech Republic GDP, Friday

• US PCE inflation, spending and sources of revenue, Michigan College Customer Sentiment, Friday

• Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin speaks Friday

• Brazil unemployment, Friday

• Chile Commercial Manufacturing, Unemployment, Friday

• Colombia Unemployment, Price Selection, Friday

One of the biggest strikes in the markets:

shares

• The Stoxx Europe 600 was slightly revised at 8:21 a.m. London time

• S&P 500 futures made little change

• Nasdaq 100 futures made little change

• Futures on the Dow Jones Commercial Moderate were little changed

• MSCI Asia Pacific index fell 0.3%

• MSCI Rising Markets Index fell 0.5%

currencies

• The Bloomberg Greenback Spot Index was marginally changed.

• The euro rose 0.1% to $1.0707

• Japanese yen little changed at 159.70 per dollar

• The offshore yuan was little changed at 7.2893 against the dollar

• The British pound was slightly revised at $1.2650

cryptocurrency

• Bitcoin fell 2.4% to $62,189.8

• Ether fell 2% to $3,365.51

bond

• The yield on 10-year Treasuries dropped one basis level to 4.25%

• Germany’s 10-year yield fell one basis point to 2.40%

• UK 10-year yield fell two basis points to 4.06%

Goods

• There was a slight change in Brent crude

• Spot gold rose 0.1% to $2,325.18 an ounce

This story was generated with the help of Bloomberg Automation.

–With the help of Aya Wagatsuma.

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