The coming paralysis of Europe. ECFR

Even if the EU Parliament election had a negligible impact in Brussels, the outcome would soon turn Europe upside down. Of course, fears of a hard-right takeover proved exaggerated. The election resulted in more of an affectionate push to the right than a seismic shift. Due to far-right developments finishing first in 5 countries and second in 4 other countries, results for EU executive leadership positions are limited.

The centre-right EU Party is the largest parliamentary group. With 189 seats, it easily overtakes the far-right ID and Self-Rule Crew and the ECU Conservatives and Reformists, who have 141 seats combined. Furthermore, the centre-left Aspiring Alliance of Socialists and Democrats lost fewer seats than many expected, due to the strong showing of the French, Italian and Spanish social democrats.

The result is a Parliament that looks not much different from its predecessor. The three pro-ECU mainstream groups still hold a comfortable majority. For anyone expecting a major disappointment in the bloc’s distribution of government jobs – or a repeat of the drama of 2019, when EU leaders cleared Ursula von der Leyen’s name to become ECU Commission president – There will almost certainly be disillusionment.

Barring any major surprises, Von der Leyen will book her own act, and mainstream events will come into the mix to fill the alternate positions. Former Portuguese Prime Minister Antonio Costa and Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas appear to be likely contenders for the jobs of ECU Council President and ECU Union government diplomat, respectively.

Despite the fact that the ECU Parliament elections have brought no real change on the EU stage, we have now got a glimpse of the political rot in some of the bloc’s most influential member states, particularly France and Germany.

However, ECU elections are secondary to national elections. Despite the fact that there has been no real upheaval on the EU stage, we now get a glimpse of the political rot in some of the bloc’s most influential member states, particularly France and Germany. French President Emmanuel Macron, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and their allies have suffered major setbacks, and they are responding with a strategy that could weaken the EU even more than the final outcome of any EU parliament.

I trade in this ultimatum regardless of additional promising implications elsewhere. In Poland, Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s coalition forced the intolerant Law and Justice (PiS) party into attendance for the first time in years (a trend that mirrored the Polish election in October, when PiS finished first but was unable to bring a mode Was) central power). In Hungary, Peter Magyar’s Tisza festival was a hit. And in Finland and Sweden, mainstream events performed quite well.

On the other hand, in Germany, all parties in the ruling coalition came together in support of the Christian Democratic Union and the far-right Extra for Germany (AfD). The word is now circulating in Berlin Contact, which refers to an insult born of affiliation. The Social Democrats, the Vegetables and the Separate Democrats (FDP) have responded with a campaign of mutual recrimination that will further limit their unpopular coalition’s already limited ability to lead ahead of key elections in the east (the AfD’s stronghold) in Q4. Will influence more.

In France the picture is even grimmer. After the far-right National Rally defeated the ruling centrist coalition by nearly 17 points in the ECU election, Macron surprised everyone by calling snap elections. With his penchant for the dramatic, Macron may be hoping to regain control of the narrative. However, the more likely outcome is indefinite parliamentary deadlock and a hypersensitive minority executive of technocrats or cohabitation with a right-wing executive governing through nationwide rallying, dedicated to the demolition of Macron’s centrist legacy.

Those domestic effects reveal what the ECU election really means. Due to the threat of voter float, each of Germany’s coalition parties is likely to lose twice as much as its core ideology. The respective bases of the Conservatives and the FDP will force them to become extra radical, which could put pressure on them in opposite directions on fiscal coverage. The result would probably be additional German vetoes on EU choices regarding regular borrowing for migration and defence.

Meanwhile, Macron’s gambit comes before key NATO and ECU summits, EU enlargement talks and the United States presidential election in q4. In each election scenario, the grand plans laid out by Macron in a recent speech at the Sorbonne fail. If the nationwide rally approaches the nearest executive, Macron will continue to preside over international and defense policy, although he will be weakened in a thousand ways through his far-right allies.

Perhaps the biggest casualty of those elections will be ECU harmony on the enormous geopolitical problems concerning the continent. With the ongoing wars in Ukraine and the Middle East and Donald Trump’s bid for the presidency of the United States, it is hard to believe that things will get worse for Europe. With negligible room for maneuver and their political capital exhausted, Macron and Scholze are in the wrong place to steer Europe through those crises. How they respond to the problem will check the ECU harmony and fix the moment of the block.

In any case, there is another choice worth imagining. Even if the winner of the British election on July 4 will not get a seat in the ECU Parliament or the ECU Council, he or she could still play an important role in bringing Europe together to tackle its most pressing challenges. , This suggests that all the direct effects are on Labour, which is probably the biggest winner, and has Keir Starmer as its leader.

This article was first published in Venture Syndicate on June 26, 2024.