The West finally gives Ukraine permission to clash with Russia again – and it seems to be working

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Bankir and his men had been trying to fight off Russian attacks on the Ukrainian front for more than two years. But it is certainly easiest now that they are able to strike confrontation exactly where it hurts: within Russia’s private sector.

Bankir said recent authorization by the US and other allies to use Western artillery for strikes inside Russia has had wide-ranging implications. “We have destroyed targets inside Russia, making several successful counterattacks possible. “The Russian military can no longer feel impunity and security,” a senior official of the Security Bureau of Ukraine (SBU) told CNN. For security reasons, he requested to be identified only through his name indication.

Having been held back for several months due to lack of ammunition and manpower, Kiev has certainly been able to take full advantage of Western military aid, which began to flow into the country in the nearest months of the delay.

Squads on the front lines say deliveries are beginning to add up – especially since they may now be able to use the arsenal for border confrontations for positive military purposes supporting Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Are.

“We can see the impact of aid every day. Artillery, long-range multiple launch rocket systems with various types of ammunition and submunitions… It is affecting the overall battlefield picture,” Ivan, an officer with the 148th Artillery Brigade, told CNN. He also requested not to reveal his full name due to security reasons.

“We are deploying the most effective weapons systems in areas where Russians are trying to break through defensive lines and significantly slow down Russian advances,” he said.

While the date has not managed to reclaim vast swaths of Kyiv territory, it has effectively prevented a crisis: the capture of Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second city.

A part of the northern Kharkiv region, along with the cities of Izyum, Kupyansk and Balaklia, joined Russian arms shortly after Moscow launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

This work was cruel at one time. When the area was liberated in late 2022, Ukrainian troops found evidence of what they say were war crimes committed by Russian forces, including numerous graves and torture chambers.

In the event, Russia announced another cross-border attack on the region, possibly in an attempt to exploit Ukraine’s ammunition shortage before the anticipated arrival of primary Western artillery.

The results were unfortunate. The UN Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) said at least 174 civilians were killed and 690 wounded in Ukraine in May, the highest number of civilian casualties in any single incident.

Most of the civilian casualties were in Kharkiv – despite the fact that the region covers a slightly smaller portion than the entire country.

Global security expert Oleksiy Melnyk, a former Ukrainian defense expert and co-director of the International Family and World Security Systems at the Razumkov Center in Kiev, told CNN that recapturing previously liberated areas north of Kharkiv is a major step forward. It was a challenge. “Sad moment” for Ukraine.

But it is also certainly a turning point.

“It changed the position of our Western partners, it encouraged them, at least partially, to lift the embargo on the use of Western weapons,” he said.

Fearing escalating tensions, the US and other Western allies have long barred Kiev from using their guns in confrontations inside Russia, restricting their usefulness in Ukrainian areas under Russian occupation.

This has allowed Russia to use border areas as a guard staging area for offensive and missile attacks.

“(Russia) knew that Ukraine did not have the capability to attack these targets on Russian territory,” Melnyk said.

“If the decision (to provide aid) had not been taken, if we would have lost American support and military assistance, it would have been a game changer.”

However, the possibility of Russia recapturing parts of the Kharkiv region has convinced some of Ukraine’s key allies, including the US, to raise the bar. This allowed Kiev to attack and destroy or seriously injure key targets inside Russia.

In line with the Ukrainian Security Government, these included a regiment command in the Belgorod region, an ammunition attic in Voronezh, a drone facility and an airfield in Krasnodar, conversation facilities in Bryansk, and several other naval sites in Crimea.

Melnyk said the advent of long-range ATACMS missile technologies was a particular game-changer. Since Ukraine was previously able to hit targets inside Russia using Ukrainian-made drones, ATACMS makes those moves more environmentally friendly.

“Speed ​​matters,” Melnyk explained. “With drone strikes, the Russians have hours to react, because they can detect Ukrainian drones in advance. Russian pilots might have a coffee and a cigarette before jumping into the cockpit and taking off. With ATACMS, it’s a matter of minutes,” he noted.

Konrad Muzyka, a separate defense analyst and director of Rochan Consulting, who recently returned from eastern Ukraine, said Russia will no longer be able to focus on the Kharkiv region with the S-300 and S-400 missile systems.

He said, “Ukraine began to conduct HIMARS strikes on targets in the Belgorod region and forced the Russians to move their S-300 systems with which they were attacking Kharkiv, so now Kharkiv is under attack from Russian S-300s. The system is beyond their limits,” he said. ,

The day Russia switched to air strikes with flow bombs – guided munitions dropped by fighter planes with pop-up wings from a distance of some 60–70 kilometers – caused Ukraine’s air defenses to fluctuate. , S-300 alert has been removed Kharkiv was not easily supplied with anything less.

Although the untested guns are creating some additional momentum, Ukraine is far from being able to push Russian forces out of its territory.

Every other officer from the 148th Separate Artillery Brigade, which bears the call sign Senator, told CNN there is still an additional reserve that Ukraine needs.

“It is not enough to turn the situation around. “Enough to deter the enemy, yes, but not enough to dramatically change the situation,” he said.

“The enemy is now exhausted but not destroyed,” he said, pointing to the fact that Russia still has absolute superiority over Ukraine.

Kiev is now pinning its hopes on deliveries of F-16 fighters that need to be launched soon – the first Ukrainian pilots were set to complete their training in the United States this summer.

Muzyka, however, said it was certainly true that the jets would bring about a dramatic change in Ukraine’s fortunes.

“The F-16s are fighters from the 1980s and 1990s and their capabilities are worse than the most modern Russian fighters,” he said. He said the latest Russian jets would likely be successful in air combat with the F-16. ,

However, Ukraine could still use the F-16 to prevent Russia from taking control of the skies – and draw Russian aircraft that throw bombs.

But untouched guns are only one part of the puzzle.

“If it were not for the supplemental package, Ukrainians would be in a much worse situation at the moment, but at the same time, the current situation is not only a result of the lack of action by the US Congress, but also About decisions that were and were not made in Kiev, especially when it comes to mobilization,” Muzyka noted.

“The decision to launch mass mobilization was probably just as important, if not more important, and it came too late,” he said. The disused mobilization law, which requires all men between the ages of 18 and 60 to join Ukraine’s military, came into force in May.

He noted that the speed at which Ukraine has managed to hire a significant selection of men during the date and time will set the future for untouched squads that will be educated and ready for the race ahead .

“Ukrainians are going to be in a very difficult situation until August, September, when the first organized people will start to enter the front lines. If they can get to that point, there is a good chance that they will manage to stabilize the situation from August onwards, but until that happens, more Russian gains are highly likely.

Muzyka noted that with virgin guns arriving and battalions and brigades being rapidly boosted by virgin recruits, Ukraine would like to decide on its upcoming steps.

“It is not clear what the plans are. What is the counter attack strategy? The problem is that Ukraine is waiting to see what equipment the West can provide them, and the West is waiting to see what plans Ukraine has for the future,” he said.

Whereas this is the essence. Mavens estimate that the $60 billion US aid package approved ahead of the event will last for at most one opportunity or 18 months.

Ukraine’s allies made unspoken commitments to hand over the weapons at the NATO summit in Washington, D.C., with President Volodymyr Zelensky calling for the lifting of all restrictions on their use.

Given the possibility of former US President Donald Trump winning a second term in November – he has little chance of a replacement.

Maria Kostenko and Daria Tarasova-Markina contributed reporting.