US is pressing to prevent wider conflict between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon

The United States is in the midst of an intense diplomatic effort to oppose a full-scale conflict between Israel and Hezbollah forces in Lebanon, because of the danger that all sides could trigger a broader regional battle.

In recent days, US officials have stepped up pressure on their Israeli adversaries and sent a message to Hezbollah leaders to avoid a wider regional fight, which they fear could involve both Iran and the US.

Israel’s defense minister, Yoav Galant, met with several Biden administration officials in Washington to talk about rising tensions on Israel’s northern border with Lebanon. The talks were finalized by Israel’s National Security Advisor, Tzachi Hanegbi, and its Strategic Affairs Minister, Ron Dermer.

Also at Final Motion, Amos Hochstein, a senior White Area senator who has played an informal diplomatic role in mediating between the two sides, visited Israel and Lebanon. Mr Hochstein warned Hezbollah, which is backed by Iran, that the US would no longer be able to deter Israel, forcing it to decide on a full-scale conflict with Defense Force personnel.

Israel and Hezbollah, rivals for several years, have exchanged frequent exchanges of fire along Israel’s northern border. Then on October 7, Hamas-led attacks prompted a vigorous Israeli offensive in Gaza, after Hezbollah began firing on Israel, originally intended to divert team spirit with Hamas towards Israeli military objectives in northern Israel. Which could be subsidized through Iran.

Fighting has intensified in recent weeks, and Israel’s reduced combat operations in Gaza, where it has largely weakened Hamas, have freed up more of its forces for a potential offensive in the north.

The nightmare scenario for US officials could be an escalation during which, for the second time, Iran and Israel immediately turn on each other. In another such round, the US may no longer be able to control the escalating tit-for-tat situation as it did in April.

At present, US officials believe that both Israel and Hezbollah would like to reach a diplomatic solution.

During his visit to Washington, Mr. Gallant told Biden leadership officials that Israel did not want a full-scale war with Hezbollah but was prepared to do harm to the mob if it was provoked further.

Among the many officials who met with Mr. Gallant were Mr. Hochstein, Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken and CIA Director William J. Burns is included.

“The US priority is to de-escalate tensions,” said David Schenker, former environment secretary of Alike Japanese Affairs under the Trump leadership. “Neither side wants war.”

Hezbollah was formed with Iranian support to counter the Israeli occupation of southern Lebanon after Israel invaded the country in 1982. A far more daring fighting force than Hamas, Hezbollah has amassed thousands of rockets capable of destroying Israeli cities.

US intelligence agencies assess that Hezbollah intends to show support for Hamas by crossing the border, but wants to avoid giving Israel leeway to launch cross-border infiltration.

US officials believe the Israeli government is divided over information about opening a major gateway to the north. Some Israeli officials, including Mr. Gallant, argued after the October 7 Hamas attacks that Israel would have to respond by trying to destroy both Hamas and Hezbollah.

According to US officials, Mr Gallant’s location has changed. Officials now say opening a new entrance would be ill-advised.

However, US officials and analysts say the risk is dangerously high that conflict could erupt.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is facing a growing political push to re-establish security in northern Israel, where about 60,000 civilians were evacuated. Many are hoping to return to the branch before the new college term starts in September, but most say they will not feel very safe traveling back as long as Hezbollah attacks continue.

The threat also includes uncertainty among some of the United States, Israel, Hezbollah, and Iran about each other’s true intentions.

“This latest escalation and expansion of the conflict has the potential to pull us back from the brink,” warned Suzanne Maloney, director of the foreign coverage program at the Brookings Institution in Washington, DC, “but the four actors are engaged in a dangerous game.” The possibility of further miscalculation of chicken is high.

“Many in Washington and elsewhere have underestimated the risk tolerance of the current Iranian leadership,” he said.

US officials will not have direct contact with Hezbollah because the US considers it a terrorist organization. Mr. Hochstein delivers his message to its leaders through Shia Lebanese politicians informally associated with the mob.

“They sent a very strong message, which is that if you think we can dictate to them what they If you do or not, you are wrong.” and US–Lebanon relations. “You have to understand that the United States does not have the ability to stop Israel.”

Mr. Gabriel, the former US ambassador to Morocco, noted that he had direct knowledge of the communique. An American honoree showed that Mr. Hochstein had delivered the message.

As well as urging restraint from all sides, Mr Hochstein is trying to persuade Hezbollah to again pull its forces back from Israel’s border, as was done after the 2006 conflict between Israel and Hezbollah. It was necessary through the resolution of the country’s Security Council.

On Sunday, Mr Netanyahu said in a televised interview that Israel was challenging “Hezbollah’s physical distance” from the border to deflect a warning given by the armed forces.

He said, “I hope we will not be forced to do this militarily, but if we are – we will be up to the task.”

A major attack between Israel and Lebanon could be tragic for all parties. Israel caused such huge damage to Lebanon in 2006 The leader of the mob, Hassan Nasrallah, said that if he had known the breakdown that would result, he would not have carried out the operation that started the conflict. However, Israel will also emerge bloodied. Hezbollah claims it can fire 3,000 rockets and missiles at once, capable of overwhelming Israel’s Iron Dome missile defense system.

And although Iran is not immediately concerned, its alternative proxy forces, including Shia militias in Iraq and Houthi militants in Yemen, may step up their attacks on Israel and US interests.

Analysts and officials say stopping the fighting in Gaza would be the safest way to reduce tensions between Israel and Hezbollah. However, an updated plan to control the fighting advised by Mr Biden and the Security Council is in limbo after additional demands from Hamas and evasive statements from Mr Netanyahu.

Mr. Hanegbi, Israel’s national security adviser, said Mr. Hochstein was confident that Israel’s plan to transition to a low-intensity fight in Gaza after ending its offensive in Rafah could open a diplomatic window for a cease-fire with Hezbollah. Is.

“He believes this will provide Hezbollah with a ladder along which it can step down from its daily solidarity with the fighting in Gaza,” Mr. Hanegbi said during a discussion at Reichman College in Herzliya on Tuesday. “And that means it will be possible to talk about an agreement in the North.”

A growing concern for US officials is the welfare of US diplomats and voters in the Lebanese capital Beirut.

On Thursday, Situation Area once again issued a blackmailing advisory to American citizens not to travel to Lebanon and stressed that the Lebanese government “cannot guarantee the safety of American citizens against a sudden outbreak of violence and armed conflict.” Can.”