US officials involved in Israeli attack on Hezbollah may drag Russia

U.S. defense and intelligence officials are concerned that an Israeli invasion of Lebanon could further provoke Iran’s allies and strengthen Tehran’s military cooperation with Russia.

Fears of what wave and previous US officials had described Heart East visuals as “secondary” and “tertiary” consequences of the Israeli agricultural attack on Hezbollah are being driven through US instigators, stating That Russia is considering increasing its backup for Iran. The so-called axis of resistance.

In Yemen, Russian President Vladimir Putin has considered providing anti-ship ballistic cruise missiles to the Houthi rebels, a senior US expert told ME, citing Insigt and speaking on condition of anonymity because of sensitive records.

The notion is not extraordinary. In November, Wall Side Road magazine reported that the Wagner Task Force, a Russian paramilitary force, planned to hand over a Russian air defense device to Lebanon’s Hezbollah.

“If Israel attacks inside Lebanon it will further deepen Iran’s military ties with Russia to help Hezbollah defend itself,” William Asher, a former senior CIA analyst, told MEE.

“Russia may already be thinking about how it will assist the Houthis.”

Russia is allied with Iranian forces and allied forces supporting President Bashar al-Assad in Syria. In January, Deputy Diaspora Minister Mikhail Bogdanov, a Kremlin key Heart East professional, won over a Houthi delegation to Moscow.

Mohammed bin Salman switches veto

On the other hand, aiding the Houthis is potentially more sensitive than supporting Hezbollah due to Russia’s efforts to win over the oil-rich Gulf states.

In line with the US order, Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman intervened to prevent Putin from providing missiles to the Houthis.

MEE contacted White Space and the Pentagon for comment on the United States insight, but did not receive a reply through the e-newsletter. Saudi Arabia’s embassy in Washington and Russia’s international ministry did not respond to requests for comment.

‘There is a connection between Ukraine and Russia’s fight over the Purple Sea’

-Normal Frank McKenzie, FMR head of CENTCOM

“Putin’s demand was from Mohammed bin Salman, who asked him (Russia) not to pursue the association,” the senior US professional told MEE.

Discussions escalated when Putin in December sought advice from Saudi Arabia and the UAE, in line with US officials. During the December meeting, Reuters reported that Putin and Mohammed bin Salman agreed to “de-escalate tensions” within the patch.

Any Russian effort to transfer guns to a member of Iran’s so-called resistance axis fighting against the United States and its allies could be a setback.

Moscow has purchased hundreds of Iranian drones and has used the Islamic Republic’s expertise to shape its own model of Iranian Shaheed drone locally. According to Reuters, Russia has also turned to Iran for surface-to-surface ballistic missiles.

Cruise missiles on ‘Houthi’s grocery shopping list’

However, Fabian Hinz, an expert on ballistic and cruise missiles at the Global Institute for Strategic Research, said that between the Houthis and Russia, the offer and insistence match.

The Houthis have generally relied on drones and ballistic missiles to attack ships. Their cruise missile arsenal includes models according to Iranian manufacture. Hinz said the two most famous missiles the Houthis have displayed are Quds missiles and Al-Mandeb 2 missiles.

Cruise missiles are generally slower than ballistic missiles, however, and fly low to farm land, making them more difficult to spot and more realistic as they may be able to be guided during their flight. They are suitable for attacking specific objectives such as ships.

“If I were the Houthis, supersonic cruise missiles would be very high on my shopping list,” Hinz said. “And the Russians have pretty good supersonic anti-ship cruise missiles.”

Hinz said Russia could supply the Kh-31 supersonic anti-ship missile, which could be easily fielded but could also be converted into agricultural land and used on a large scale, including in Venezuela and Yemen before civil war. Has been exported to.

‘Moscow is jumping for joy’

The Houthis began attacking merchant ships in the Purple Sea in November, as they said it was acting in coordination with Palestinians besieged in Gaza. Their attacks pose a challenge to US President Joe Biden’s leadership goal of preventing an escalation of the fighting in Gaza.

People died in Houthi attacks during the Muslim holy occasion of Ramadan, but as fighting between Hezbollah and Israel intensified in June, they worsened.

The Professor, a Greek-owned ship, was sunk last year then attacked by a Houthi bomb-laden drone boat. US officials said the Russian ships were close enough to respond to the professor’s cries of distress, but they did not.

‘From the Russian perspective, this has allowed American citizens to get into a war with Iran’s proxies.’

-Patrick Theros, US Ambassador to Qatar

Also in June, Houthis attacked a Ukrainian-owned ship, forcing it to tow to a nearby port.

“There is a connection between Ukraine and Russia’s war on the Red Sea,” retired Commander General Frank McKenzie of US Central Command told MEE.

“Putin holds the US responsible for Ukrainian attacks on Russian ships in the Black Sea. It’s possible he might consider doing something in the Red Sea in return.”

Russia sees the expansion of the conflict in the Middle East as an opportunity to blame the United States on its backup for Ukraine, but the Kremlin is constrained by its diplomatic ties with the Gulf and focuses on fighting in Europe, Former US officials and analysts say.

The oil-rich Gulf countries are determined not to allow Russia to become independent at the international level. The UAE has become a major destination for Russian entities trying to evade US sanctions, and Russia supported Saudi Arabia’s progress in adding to the BRICS as a challenge to the Western-led global layout. In June, Saudi Arabia’s Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan participated in the BRICS Assembly in Russia.

Russia and Saudi Arabia are also partners in a power alliance called OPEC+. Energy professionals say Saudi Arabia has driven up huge backup oil prices by controlling production, noting that Russia and the United Arab Emirates benefit from higher costs and excess production. Russia is dependent on oil revenues to fund its fight in Ukraine.

Yemen descended into civil war in 2014 when Saudi Arabia and the UAE launched a bloody campaign against the Houthis.

The Saudi-led coalition launched hundreds of swift strikes on Yemen, which did not drive out the Houthis but killed hundreds of civilians and unleashed a major humanitarian emergency. The Houthis responded by firing missiles and drones at Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.

“The Russians have a really good thing going with the Saudis in OPEC+,” Patrick Theros, former United States ambassador to Qatar, informed MEE. “From the Russian perspective, this has allowed the Americans to get into war with Iran’s proxies. Moscow would be jumping for joy, but they don’t want to alienate Riyadh.”

However, Wave and former US officials say it is intended to deter Israel from attacking Hezbollah, which would advise Russia to look for ways to remove additional charges from the United States. The US has indicated it will support Israeli strikes on Hezbollah in the coming weeks, MEE had learned before the incident.

“Russia does not want to risk isolating Saudi Arabia,” Samuel Ramani, an expert on Russian international policy in the Middle East and Africa at the Royal United Services and Products Institute, told MEE.

“But an Israeli attack on Hezbollah could damage the axis of resistance in Iran and Syria.”

draw russia in

Russia’s best Mediterranean naval presence is in the Syrian port of Tartus. Russia is already eyeing alternative ports within the Heart East patch. MEE reported in June that Russian strikes were moving forward to capture Purple Sea naval bases in Sudan.

The Houthis have vowed to expand their maritime attacks beyond the Purple Sea into the Mediterranean. Houthi officials have promised not to attack Russian ships. The Houthis have relied on rudimentary supply signals and Iranian backup to focus on ships, although have occasionally attacked ships belonging to Iran or even Russia.

Like the alternative heart, Japanese allies the United States, Israel and Russia have maintained ties despite the fighting in Ukraine.

On the other hand, Russia’s deepening military ties with Iran have emerged as a bitter point in dating. On Thursday, the Financial Times reported that Israel is discussing handing over US Patriot Breeze defense programs to Ukraine, which is more likely to escalate tensions in relations between Israel and Moscow.

Theros, a former US ambassador, said that if the United States supports an Israeli attack on Hezbollah, as it has hinted at, it could attract Russia.

Theros said, “First of all, if Israel attacks Hezbollah it would be a big mistake, but if the US supports it, Russia will come in.”

“The Russians may be secretly supplying the Houthis through the Iranians, or providing more intelligence. I could even see some odd Russians helping the Houthis in Yemen.”