US says Israel’s Iron Dome at risk of defeat in all-out war with Hezbollah Israel-Gaza conflict

Israel’s Iron Dome anti-missile batteries are likely to be hit in the opening moves of any major conflict with Hezbollah.

The assessment by US officials last year, echoing fresh research by experts in Israel and the US, comes amid fears that the fight with Hezbollah could be a far worse effort than the 2006 Second Lebanon War. When the Israeli bombing took place, there was massive destruction in Lebanon.

The US and France are leading diplomatic efforts to prevent a wider conflict between Israel and Hezbollah, amid fears that escalating rhetoric and exchanges of gunfire along the border could escalate into full-scale fighting.

On Friday, Kuwait’s Foreign Ministry warned its voters against traveling to Lebanon and asked those already in the country to quarantine. There are also reports that Biden leadership officials told an Israeli delegation in Washington that the United States would exchange security assistance in the event of a widespread war, with United States Secretary-General Antonio Guterres calling for “the cause.” and rationality” to avoid undoubtedly disastrous consequences for the patch and the region.

Since 2006, Hezbollah, the region’s most armed non-state actor, has significantly expanded its arsenal and facilities, including acquiring suicide drones, which Israel has struggled to counter, and an anti-aircraft missile capability. And a vastly expanded range of missiles that outguns the Maven. Now consider a volume between 120,000 and 200,000.

Hezbollah Secretary-General Sayyid Hassan Nasrallah has said his team can count on 100,000 armed men, with its main military force probably around a third of its strength, but a significant number with combat experience in Syria.

On the other hand, given the scale of Hezbollah’s missile arsenal, and an operational principle of its usefulness in a major conflict with Israel, it is more likely to be difficult to maximize.

Most of Hezbollah’s stockpile consists of thousands of unguided missiles – each Snipes and Long Box – since 2006 it has received a large number of guided ballistic missiles, capable of firing them from vulnerable bunkers and cell launchers.

Complicating the problem is Hezbollah’s increasing and efficient use of kamikaze guns as well as drones, which Israel’s current air defenses have struggled to counter.

A three-year research mission by Reichman College’s Institute for Counterterrorism in Israel, which concluded shortly before the Hamas attack on October 7, concluded that Hezbollah could fire a few thousand missiles per day, a The maximum that the Commission can do is to last for 3 weeks. Its main struggle may be to strengthen Israel’s weak security.

“The expectations of a significant portion of the public and leadership, that the Israeli Air Force and effective Israeli intelligence systems would succeed in stopping most rocket attacks on Israel, will be shattered,” the record said. “This is also the case with respect to the public perception that the threat of Israeli retaliation or a major Israeli attack on vital Lebanese assets would force Hezbollah to cease fire or substantially reduce their ability to continue attacking Israeli territory.” Will give.”

According to a contemporary briefing paper assessing Hezbollah’s rocket capability prepared through the Center for Strategic and Global Research, an American think tank, “Finding and destroying Hezbollah’s rocket and missile capabilities would involve a massive reconnaissance-strike effort “.

“Hezbollah’s rocket and missile arsenal also includes long-range missiles,” the paper said. “These are likely to be used primarily in a coercive capacity, including undermining Israeli support for the Hezbollah war.” “To carry out long-range attacks against Israeli population centers.”

Perhaps the most serious problem, experts believe, is the vast collection of incoming missiles fired in waves deliberately designed to weaken Israel’s air defense systems.

Seth G. Jones, an analyst at a think tank in Washington, echoed Pentagon officials’ ultimatum, saying, “Facing the extensive rocket arsenal coming from the North will be a tall order for Israeli air defenses.” “Our estimate is that at least some of the “Iron Dome batteries” will be sunk,” a senior Biden leadership official told CNN, adding that Israel is moving remaining air defense assets north.

Israel has about 10 Iron Dome batteries and each with about 4 individual launchers, each battery linked to a radar machine that detects incoming missiles. On the other hand, like every system, it depends materially on how many alerts it can engage simultaneously.

Hezbollah’s advanced missile capability has led to an ultimatum for Israel’s civilian flexibility to plan to deal with large numbers of casualties if war broke out. Now not everyone seems satisfied that Israel’s military and political management have fully understood the threats.

Speaking at a conference last year, Shaul Goldstein, the head of NOGA, which manages Israel’s electricity systems, warned: “We are not ready for a real war. “In my view, we live in a fantasy world.” He said that Israel would be “deserted” after 72 hours without energy. “You look at all our infrastructure, optical fibre, ports – and I won’t go into sensitive things – we’re not in a good place.” Although he continued to recant some of the comments in a nearby radio interview, his comments were later criticized by other experts.

Meanwhile, dozens of Palestinians were killed in Israeli air strikes on two densely populated areas in Gaza Town. According to initial reports in Israeli media, the bombings were intended to kill a highly senior Hamas commander.

Amid initial reports of dozens of casualties, some of whom are still buried under debris, Israel Security Forces said it had struck Hamas “military infrastructure sites.”

The moves hit the al-Shati neighborhood, known as the Seashore Camp, and the al-Tafah district, causing significant explosions that killed 38 people, according to Ismail al-Thawbta, director of the Hamas-run government. Media workplace. Hamas did not comment on the Israeli announcement of the attack on its military infrastructure.