US wants trade between Israel-Hezbollah to stop Lebanon war

There are concerns that months of desperate violence along the Lebanese border could escalate into a more deadly conflict this year, after Israel killed a senior Hezbollah commander and the militant group retaliated with a massive rocket barrage. of. Meanwhile, several countries, including Germany and Canada, warned their voters to shun Lebanon, citing warnings of worsening hostilities.

The US has not yet ordered the evacuation of its voters, but in the meantime it sent an amphibious ship, the United States Wasp, carrying Marines trained for evacuations, to the Mediterranean. The Pentagon has declined to comment on any evacuation plans for Lebanon.

Hezbollah, the Iran-backed Lebanese militant group, political party and best friend of Hamas, has repeatedly said it is necessary to stop Israel’s offensive in Gaza before its fighters become disarmed. U.S. officials have said Hezbollah’s words suggest, without providing any details, that there may be options for ending the war on the Israel-Lebanon border without a Gaza cease-fire.

As talks continue, there is growing concern in both Lebanon and Israel about the fallout from the war, which would almost certainly lead to peak civilian casualties, with the subsequent months of fighting already displacing some 200,000 Lebanese and Israelis on all sides of the border. Have been done.

Such a conflict would almost certainly ruin the Biden administration’s stated aim of preventing the US, Israel’s number one military supporter, from spreading hostilities in Gaza around the Middle East.

U.S. and Israeli officials have sought a broader term of honor that would sidestep Hezbollah’s warnings to northern Israel and allow hundreds of thousands of people displaced by the sect to return. However, analysts said that in the absence of a permanent ceasefire in Gaza, Hezbollah was unlikely to sign an agreement outright, limiting its military options.

According to Lebanese and ECU officials and printed reports, the draft contracts called for the gang to move large guns away from the Israeli border, as well as provide a reconstruction budget for Lebanon, among other conditions.

“It is impossible that we will stop if (the war) in Gaza does not stop,” a member of Hezbollah’s media office told The Washington Post, reiterating the gang’s long-standing position. “If it stops in Gaza, it stops in the south,” the media adviser said, speaking on condition of anonymity due to Hezbollah’s rules.

Regarding the group’s decision to halt firing during a one-week recess, the representative said that in the event of a brief cease-fire in Gaza – short for a permanent cease-fire – Hezbollah would retaliate in Lebanon, “as it happened for the first time.” Was”. In Gaza in November. However, this does not mean that the ruthless Hezbollah will accept a blanket term of honor, which “cannot be discussed with us before the war in Gaza stops,” the adviser said. Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah has repeatedly said the group no longer needs war.

US diplomatic efforts were led by Amos Hochstein, a key adviser to the White House, who effectively mediated maritime trade between Israel and Lebanon in 2022. It used to be a historical term of respect that allowed the demarcation of maritime boundaries between the two countries. Hochstein visited Lebanon this year.

Qatar, which has brokered talks between Israel and Hamas, has also been requested by the US to assist in mediation in Lebanon, according to a person familiar with the effort, who like others briefed on the ongoing talks. Gave an interview in, spoke on condition of anonymity. To speak about delicate international relations. Information about Qatar’s situation was first given by Lebanon’s Al-Akhbar newspaper.

The Biden administration continues to view the ceasefire in Gaza as an important step towards resolving the situation in Lebanon. However, US officials have also begun exploring complementary options to ease tensions, according to officials familiar with the matter.

Condition Area spokesman Matthew Miller declined Tuesday to speculate on the chances of the U.S. diplomatic effort being successful, though he said “we think a diplomatic solution is possible” and “in the interest of all parties.” A senior US official briefing reporters on Wednesday said there were “ways forward” in international relations, but also declined to talk about Washington’s complementary plans.

“I am not going to talk in terms of Plan A, Plan B, Plan C,” Pramanik said.

Nasrallah’s response to Hochstein’s talks this year was to urge that the White Area remain focused on the Gaza ceasefire as a solution.

He indicated that Hochstein had requested Hezbollah to intervene with Hamas to accept the White Area ceasefire plan, a proposal he rejected. “accept what? To accept this solution that offers them a six-week ceasefire and deprives them of their most important trump cards, and then exposes them to continued war,” he said in relation to demanding the permanent end of Hamas. said in. Conflict.

During a conversation in Washington today, Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Galant said Israel did not want a war with Hezbollah, but was “preparing for every situation.”

“I have met with Amos Hochstein twice this week. We are communicating intensively. Israel wants to find a solution that will change the security situation in the North,” he said.

“We will not accept Hezbollah troops and military formations on the border with Israel. We will not accept threats to our northern communities,” Gallant said. “We are prepared to do everything in our power to protect our people. We do not want to get into war because it is not good for Israel. “We have the potential to take Lebanon back to the Stone Age, but we don’t want to do that.”

During his personal meetings with officials, Gallant sought to create concern in the minds of his American adversaries by suggesting that Israel was under threat from Iran and Hezbollah in ways that were not evidenced by U.S. intelligence tests, one author wrote. Said room during one of their meetings.

Gallant urged that Iran would probably “haphazardly start a major war to destroy Israel, which is a little over the top and as the intelligence suggests,” Authentic said.

Heiko Wimmen, project director for Iraq, Syria and Lebanon at the World Situation Team, said that when it came to warning of war, “everyone, including the Israelis, realized that there are limited military options and certainly not good options.” I’m not sure anyone believes that a ground invasion is something that is appropriate or even possible at this point.

Hezbollah is “a rival of a very different caliber” from Hamas, which is taking advantage of nearly two decades of excessive Israeli incursions into Lebanon to arrange a homogenous situation on its home territory, he said, adding: “Credible “There are stories that Hezbollah has a tunnel community far more complex and harder to crash than the one Hamas built in Gaza. (During an interview with The Post in April, a Hezbollah spokesman said the gang had taught Hamas how to develop its tunnels.)

“The general understanding is that this is something that has the potential to have a very bad outcome. “It’s not going to restore much of the IDF’s deterrence,” Wiman said in relation to the Israel Defense Forces. This leaves the possibility that Israel will pursue options short of attack, including a campaign of airstrikes. – A strategy based on the assumption that Hezbollah can be inflicted with great “pain” in order to force the gang to abdicate.

“It’s a risky proposition,” Wimman said. “You don’t know where the redline is until you step on it.”

Despite ongoing fighting in Gaza, Hezbollah has continued to engage in talks with Washington through Lebanese mediators, an ECU official in Lebanon said.

But as a brief ceasefire holds in Gaza and Hezbollah maintains its dominance, “the question we’re asking ourselves now is: Will Israel decide to stay?” Authentic mention has been made.

The fear is that Israel will continue targeted killing of Hezbollah supporters in Lebanon – 338 have been killed in fighting since October – risking retaliation or miscalculation that could lead to war.

This could inevitably embroil the US, said Major Harrison Mann, who resigned from the Middle East category of the US Defense Intelligence Agency last year to protest US support for Israel’s offensive in Gaza.

The US already has old guns in Lebanon for Israel, and has promised continued backup, while its best friend is considering an extended war. On this issue, Biden leadership officials say that they have personally advised Israel not to become a party to the conflict.

“Israel will not launch an offensive unless they are fully confident of America’s support,” he said. “So I think the ultimate trigger of a war of annihilation in the form of a ground attack will be when (Prime Minister Benjamin) Netanyahu feels he has got the green light from the US.”

Fahim reported from Istanbul, Hudson from Washington and Dadouch from Beirut. Mohammed al-Chama in Beirut and Karen DeYoung and Dan Lamothe in Washington contributed to this record.