Kansas City, MO. – US men’s national team coach Greg Berhalter is a planner. In the months between USMNT games, when his work is less pressured and practical, his organized mind focuses on details and possibilities. He spent long summer days analyzing group-stage opponents ahead of the 2022 World Cup. He likely spent part of this spring outlining a 2024 Copa America gameplan.
But what he couldn’t prepare for was a decisive Group C game with a messy scenario, a suspended star and an injured goalkeeper, plus an opponent whose influential coach would be missing and whose motivations are unclear.
The USMNT will take on Uruguay in a mystery match here at Arrowhead Stadium on Monday. And possibly – maybe, but not certainly – it has to win to reach the Copa America knockout rounds and avoid unmitigated failure.
USMNT’s Copa America scenario in Group C
In a simultaneous group-stage final, Panama will play Bolivia in Orlando. The simplified version of several dizzying scenarios is that the US should match the Panama outcome.
After Thursday’s suicidal 2-1 defeat Los CanalerosThe United States and Panama are level on three points heading into the third and final matchday of Group C.
Uruguay are on six points with a plus-7 goal difference, and will top the group if they do not lose to the US by four goals.
In second place – the most important spot – the US (+1) are ahead of Panama (-1) on goal difference; So if both draw or both win by the same margin then America will advance.
However, if Panama begins to rack up goals, the permutations become complicated. The second tiebreaker is goals scored in the entire group stage – and there, with each team having three goals, Panama has the advantage. A 3–0 win for Panama and a 1–0 win for the US would put Panama through to the quarterfinals and eliminate the US.
An easy way to process those permutations is from Panama’s perspective: They have to outperform the US results; And if both win, their margin of victory must be at least twice better than the American margin.
Firing on all cylinders in Uruguay
So, the surface view is that America is in somewhat pretty good shape. Well, the problem is everything else.
Panama could very well overtake Bolivia, who conceded five goals to Uruguay and are clearly the worst team in Group C.
Uruguay, on the other hand, is lukewarm. Argentina’s iconic manager Marcelo Bielsa has rebooted La Celeste And turning them into arguably the most impressive team at the 2024 Copa America. They are talented, coordinated and aggressive. They constantly put pressure on each other up the field and attack their opponents immediately after winning the ball.
“We know they will be extremely high-intensity, really visionary,” American defender Antoine Robinson, who played against Bielsa’s Leeds United in the English Premier League, said on Saturday.
“How they maintain intensity throughout the game is on a different level,” Berhalter said Sunday.
“They play a pretty high-risk, high-reward game,” Robinson said, “sometimes leaving space that vertical forwards can take advantage of.”
But the USMNT’s most vertical forward, Tim Weah, will not be available.
Berhalter’s options after Weah’s suspension
Weah is suspended two games for a costly red card against Panama; And the USMNT is struggling to adjust to his absence.
They had only three days to formulate a Plan B and figure out how to replace a player whose skill set had no parallel in the current player pool.
Yes, when healthy, has started every A-Team US game over the past two-plus years; He is a fixture on the right wing, as his on- and off-ball directness adds dimension to the American attack, dimensions that it otherwise lacks.
So, how will Berhalter reconfigure the USMNT without Weah?
Option No. 1: The closest thing to a like-for-like replacement would probably be Hadji Wright, a forward who often played centrally in the past, but now plays out wide for the United States and his English club, Coventry City. .
The right is more comfortable and effective on the left wing; Christian Pulisic could shift to the right, where he spent most of last season in Italy for AC Milan. However, such a change would require other adjustments in the field.
Option number 2 would be to play Gio Reyna wide and bring Yunus Musah into Reyna’s midfield position.
If Reyna is deemed integral in the midfield, the option No. 3 would be another versatile attacker on the wing, such as Brandon Aaronson or Malik Tillman.
But both of those options have a familiar drawback: When the U.S. plays with two wingers Both In the space between the lines, preferring to drift into the infield – as Reyna, Aaronson and Tillman all do, and as Pulisic often does when he plays on the left – the American attack often struggles. For example, without Weah in September 2022, they scored zero goals in 180 minutes against Japan and Saudi Arabia.
Last but not necessarily least, option number 4 would be completely unexpected: perhaps a 3-5-2 in which Pulisic would be up front with Folarin Balogun? Or a 4-4-2 with a diamond midfield of Adams, Weston McKennie, Musah and Reyna?
In the past, Berhalter has prioritized continuity. They deployed almost the same personnel during the 2022 World Cup, and fielded exactly the same lineup in the USMNT’s first two 2024 Copa América games. But, sometimes, he is willing and able to make changes to his system to combat a specific opponent.
Uruguay mind games?
In the lead-up to Monday’s match, legitimate questions have been raised about whether Berhalter knows exactly who he will be facing.
Uruguay have not mathematically qualified for the quarters, but with their place almost confirmed, fans and media have speculated that Bielsa could play with the second-string team to rest the regular players for the knockout rounds. Is.
Assistant coach Diego Reyes was asked several times Sunday about that possibility. Monday’s starting lineup has not yet been determined, he said, speaking about “a number of changes.”
Sitting next to Reyes was reserve goalkeeper Franco Israel, an unusual choice for a pre-match news conference, raising doubts over the lineup rotation. But this was almost too unusual – and perhaps a misdirected move. Rumors in Uruguayan football circles suggest that Uruguay’s lineup will remain mostly unchanged.
“My guess is they’ll play their strongest team,” Berhalter said Sunday.
And they will not believe that their quarterfinal spot is secure. “We’re focused on tomorrow’s game as if it’s our last game,” Reyes said.
Bielsa was also suspended for Monday’s match
However, they will be without their coach Bielsa, who received a one-match suspension on Sunday after the Uruguayans came off late in the second half of Thursday’s win over Bolivia.
Of course, Bielsa can still prepare his team, but he won’t be in his locker room or on his sideline on Monday. Upon reaching Arrowhead they would not be allowed to contact them. His two longtime assistants, Reyes and Pablo Quiroga, would step in and take over.
The suspension will limit Bielsa’s ability to take advantage of his intelligence in the middle of the game. But that won’t limit Uruguay’s ability to play BielsaBall. His genius lies in his teaching and training, not in his adjustment to the game. “This is a well-prepared team,” Berhalter said Sunday. “No matter who is on the sideline, it will be exactly the same playing style.”
And the assistants are in line with his philosophy. Starting in 2007, Reyes has followed him from Chile to Athletic Bilbao, Marseille to Lazio (briefly!), Lille to Leeds and now Uruguay. He was confident that he and the staff would be able to complete the task well.
“We’ve been working with Marcelo for a very long time,” Reyes said.
An important match for the US and Berhalter
More importantly, Uruguay are fully healthy, with all 26 of their players available.
The U.S. will be without Weah, and also may be without goalkeeper Matt Turner, who injured his left foot in the first half against Panama and left the game at halftime.
Turner went through “limited” training sessions Saturday and Sunday, Berhalter said. He is questionable for Monday. If Turner can’t go, Ethan Horvath will start.
Neither of these are ideal circumstances entering a highly consequential game, easily the USMNT’s most consequential since Qatar. A win would provide proof of concept, and encourage the American players to advance to the knockout rounds and beyond. A loss could trigger a crisis and cost Berhalter his job.
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