Self-possessed and serious for the most part, German conservatives were clearly thrilled when leaders formally gave them a chance in a second phase of their move into the world’s largest single markets.
Von der Leyen is revealed to be a solid pair of fingers in an era when Russian blackmail looms over Europe, and to oblige position chiefs constantly calling Brussels to decide on major coverage. Working fast.
However their support is not enough. Yet she still needs the support of at least 361 of the EU Parliament’s 720 lawmakers in a hidden vote in July.
Experts say this is a more difficult task, making allowance for each member representing not only one of the seven political groups – along with many other national parties – but also those across broad ideological lines, from regional neutrality to regionalism. Fractures with – but also their own interests and constituencies.
The key question now is whether von der Leyen gets the support she wants, or whether she will have to make unpleasant compromises that are likely to break the EU’s foundation. Some argue that its fate is tied to the future of Europe. The alliances she forms now may decide which direction Europe heads, at least for the next five years, but could also have long-term effects on the continent or even the planet.
How are the numbers collected?
To start, it looks like if conservatives, socialists, and liberals all lend their support, von der Leyen might get what she needs:
- Von der Leyen’s personal centre-right EU Public Party (EPP) emerged as the biggest in the bloc with 188 seats.
- The centre-left Socialists and Democrats came in second place with 136.
- Liberals from the Renew Europe team, led by French President Emmanuel Macron and facing defeat in France due to the growing far-right National Rally, came in fourth place with 75.
This amounts to around 400 seats in total, which is well beyond the required number.
EPP spokesman Pedro López de Pablo said von der Leyen could win more seats than expected amid growing concerns over the changing political environment – and not just in the EU.
Thursday’s debate between outgoing US President Joe Biden and Republican candidate Donald Trump was widely heralded as a victory for the finale, and López de Pablo said it would have shocked some EU progressives who had been voting. Were thinking about. Von der Leyen’s opposition.
“There is a lot of uncertainty and people here are worried after last night’s debate,” he told DW. “We need certainty in Europe, we need political stability.”
And yet, the help of just three political groups may not be enough to push von der Leyen into the final standings. It is not expected that everyone will vote for him – for example, the EPP’s fellow French Republicans have said they are not inclined. Furthermore, the fact that she won by an extremely narrow margin of just 9 votes in 2019 may force von der Leyen and her group to lose nothing for the possibility.
According to political analysts, von der Leyen has two options: accept support from the Crew of the Vegetables/European FreeAlliance, or woo Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, possibly one of the EU’s toughest politicians.
Backup from vegetables or some distance fair
Von der Leyen’s centre-right team sensed the growing appeal of the foreign fair ahead of the EU elections, and opened the door for Meloni to a possible post-election coalition despite considerable nervousness among socialists and liberals.
Now, she faces a troubling conundrum. If she goes to Meloni to win the votes of lawmakers from her far-right Brothers of Italy party, she risks losing to the Socialists. But while she is leaving with the vegetables, she may be dissatisfied and collect some within the EPP.
From a political point of view, López de Pablo said, “the Greens were incredible” and it made sense to take as allies the right-wing nationalist EU and conservatives and reformists, Meloni’s group, the ECR. “Parties in the ECR actually form governments, they have the numbers and their support could prove essential to pushing through major legislation,” he said. “And they are not seen as accurate by far.”
However, for many MPs, the ECR is untouchable. Case in point: Meloni deliberately did not mention the management decision-making taskforce – the six EU leaders – that finalized names for key EU posts on Thursday.
,They did not want the leader of the ECR, which is a far-right group,said Leo Goretti of the Institute of World Affairs think tank in Rome. “Socialists and liberals are opposed to leaders like Meloni because they are trying to protect the modest principles of Europe.”
“Ultimately Meloni wants a Europe of the States,” he said in relation to the Euroscepticism prevalent among far-right parties regardless of declarations of embracing the EU.
Meloni abstained from voting for von der Leyen on Thursday, and voted against applicants for the other two management jobs, Portugal’s António Costa as EU Council president and Estonia’s Antonio Costa as the EU’s managing diplomat. Kaja Kailas. A post on X said that decision making at the highest levels in the EU was undemocratic.
“Out of respect for the citizens and the signals I received from those citizens during the election, I decided not to support it,” he wrote.
The Vegetables are fully prepared to muster the numbers for Von der Leyen, lending their support to the agreement she will make to end the backlash of ambitious green do business in EU policies that seek to shore up the bloc’s climate. Is- Neutral by 2050. In the months before the EU elections, von der Leyen had moved to water down some of its provisions under pressure from protesting farmers.
Vegetables would like to book insurance policies to survive, although they would also like to book the “cordon sanitaire” – a protective barrier established to book fairs some distance from control positions within the EU – from collapsing. .
“The general understanding is that we want a stable EU and it absolutely needs us,” said Anna Cavazzini, a German meat presser from Vegetables, adding that she wanted “reassurance” over the EU’s inexperienced policies. “We will not support him for free.”
Edited by: Martin Kuebler
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