What should we make of this opportunity?

A very powerful opportunity for action market knowledge will welcome traders during the holiday-shortened trading opportunity beginning in the July generation, 0.33 quarter and second half of 2024.

The S&P 500 (^GSPC) entered Q3 up 14.5% so far this year, with the Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) up more than 18% this year. The Dow Jones Business Moderate (^DJI) gained an additional 3.8% in the first six months of the year.

With stocks hitting similar record highs and the latest inflation trend proving more certain, all attention has turned to the investment market for signs of the disease as the Fed maintains its restrictive interest rate stance.

The June jobs record will take a strong look at the job market on Friday, with year-of-the-year updates on personal payrolls and job vacancies also likely to take center stage during the occasion. There may also be updates on production and process within products and service areas scattered throughout the agenda.

Constellation Manufacturers (STZ) is expected to be the focus of the only significant company earnings record during an isolated quiet opportunity before the big banks formally kick off Q2 earnings season, please watch the opportunity.

Markets in the US will be closed early on July 3 (at 1 p.m. ET) and will remain closed on July 4 for the Self-Rule Pace.

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The June jobs record is set to break Friday morning and is expected to cool the job market further.

It is expected that a record 188,000 non-farm payroll jobs were added to the US economy in the last generation, with unemployment remaining steady at 4%, according to Bloomberg data. In May, 272,000 jobs were added to the US economy, while the unemployment rate rose modestly to 4%.

Michael Gapen, a US economist, believes a record with those strains would result in an attempted market that is “cool but not cool.”

On Friday, an unedited study of the Fed’s most popular inflation gauge showed that inflation eased in May as prices rose at the slowest pace since March 2021.

The print was considered a creative advance for the Federal Store’s struggle against inflation.

Certain trends in inflation, mixed with indicators of a slow pace in the financial process, have economists arguing that the Fed should lean towards cutting interest rates sooner than expected.

“Emerging signs of labor market moderation suggest that (Fed) officials also need to be mindful of the risks to the full employment side of their mandate,” Michael Pearce, deputy chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics, wrote in a note to buyers. needed.”

halftime record

Like 2023, 2024’s safe-haven market rally has been driven by a few big tech stocks.

the story continues

Halfway through the year, more than two-thirds of the S&P 500’s gains for the year come from Nvidia (NVDA), Apple (AAPL), Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL), Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN), Meta (META), and Broadcom (AVGO). Nvidia Unloved carries forward about one-third of those positive aspects.

Despite some short-term rallies during the year, only two sectors have outperformed the S&P 500 this year: communications products and services and the data age. Both are up more than 18%, compared to the S&P 500’s gain of 15%.

That sidesteps the debate over whether the safe-haven market rally will extend into the second half of the year, a hot-button factor on Wall Side Street.

Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley’s distinguished investment executive, argued in a recent analysis note that given weak financial knowledge and high rates of interest, a real expansion in which sectors unrelated to tech would pick up the slack will not happen.

“Narrow breadth may persist but is not necessarily a headwind for further returns in itself,” Wilson said. “We believe expansion is likely to be limited to high quality/large cap pockets for now.”

Extra Megacap Extravagance

Most strategists have argued that megacap tech companies have led the rally for the right reason, as their earnings are outperforming the market. It is expected that the situation will remain the same during the second quarter earnings also.

Revenue at Nvidia, Apple, Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon and Meta is expected to grow a combined 31.7% in the second quarter, according to UBS Investment Deposit US equity strategist Jonathan Golub.

The S&P 500 is expected to post revenue growth of an additional 7.8%.

This means that the bulk of revenue growth is once again expected to come from Big Tech. And an indistinguishable pattern could be detected in the earnings revisions for the second quarter.

Since March 31, Golub’s painting shows that earnings estimates for the S&P 500 have fallen only 0.1%, which is significantly less than the 3.3% daily cut detectable on average. This is due to the massive 3.9% revision for the six largest tech companies above.

As the second half of the year approaches, the debate over whether or not these Big Tech companies will see sustained earnings declines continues to take center stage.

weekly calendar

monday

Financial Knowledge: S&P World US Production, June final (51.7 ex, 51.7 ex); Development expenditure, month-on-month, May (0.3% ex ante, -0.1% ex); ISM production, June (49.2 expected, 48.7 expected)

Income: Wrong significant income.

Tuesday

Financial Knowledge: Opening Activity, May (7.86 million anticipated, 8.06 million prior)

Income: Wrong significant income.

Wednesday

Financial Knowledge: MBA Loan Program, opportunities ending June 28 (0.8%); ADP Individual Payrolls, June (+158,000 anticipated, +152,000 prior); S&P International US Products and Services PMI, June ultimate (52.3 anticipated, 55.1 prior), S&P World US Composite PMI, June ultimate (54.6 prior); ISM Products and Services Index, June (52.5 expected, 53.8 prior); Payment of cost of ISM products and services, June (58.1); Manufacturing Facility Orders, May (0.3% ex ante, 0.7% ex); Strong item order, may be final (0.1%)

Income: Constellation Maker (STZ)

Thursday

Markets are closed due to Fourth of July holidays.

Friday

Financial Calendar: Nonfarm Payrolls, June (+188,000 ext, +272,000 ex); Unemployment rate, June (4% expected, 4% so far); Median hourly earnings, month-over-month, June (+0.3% ex ante, +0.4% ex); Median hourly earnings, year-over-year, June (+3.9% ex ante, +4.1% ex); Median weekly hours worked, June (34.3 anticipated, 34.3 prior); Effort Strength Participation Value, June (62.6% expected, 62.5% prior)

Income: Wrong significant income.

Josh Schafer is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. practice it on x @_joshschafer,

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