What to know about Iran’s newly elected President Pezeshkian

Iran’s newly elected reformist President Massoud Pezeshkian won a narrow victory over a hardline candidate in the Islamic republic’s election on Sunday. However, given the long-term priorities of the clerics, who are the largest source of power in Iran, Pezeshkian will only be able to make limited changes to a few topics – and any reforms he makes are not guaranteed to effectively shape Later his tenure ended.

Pezeshkian’s victory reveals something about both the rule of Grand Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and the mood of regular Iranians. The mere fact of him being able to run – presidential candidates are selected by a group of clerics called the Mother Council – means that Khamenei and his allies, who oversee most of Iran’s government, know that society Disappointed with this. The status quo, especially after the brutal crackdown on protests and the 2022 Women, the Year, Autonomy movement.

However, there is a strong segment of Iran’s citizens opposed to reforms, as shown by the fact that Pezeshkian’s opponent, former nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili, is a hard-liner – and the overall margin between them was quite narrow. Although it is noteworthy to approach the results with a certain degree of skepticism given the popular dishonesty of the Iranian management, the regime threw its assets behind Jalili and apparently tried to win him over. And the fact that almost few citizens voted for Jalili introduces a major level of polarization.

Complicating any struggle to draw conclusions from the polling is the fact that there was widespread voter abstention, either as a result of vote boycotts organized by activists including women, activists of the autonomy movement, or simply due to voter apathy. However, of the approximately 50 percent of eligible citizens who voted, the majority voted for someone who promised least restricted choice, high transparency and a willingness to confront factionalism and support the life of society. .

“Part of the precedent we’ve seen before is that whenever a reformist — a real reformer — runs, they win,” Negar Mortazavi, a senior fellow at the Center for Global Coverage, told Vox. “In a way, it was a surprise that he was allowed to run. But I wasn’t surprised that he won – even from the beginning, polls showed he was ahead. So it still shows that … the majority of those who voted believe in reform and are unhappy.”

Although Iran has an unelected president, Perfect Chief Khamenei and the Mother Council are the supreme decision-makers, especially in the case of foreign family members. Pezeshkian will be able to make limited changes in the domestic sphere, although he will still have to work within the framework of Iran’s democratic system.

According to Sanam Vakil of the British think tank Chatham Space, “The president has ambitions and he has made them clear in relation to the social sphere, the economic sphere and potentially Iran’s foreign relations.” “But what the president has to do to succeed is to build consensus across the Iranian political spectrum, working through and with those Iranian institutions that are dominated by conservatives. So right now, without that consensus, and without that support from within, he won’t have a lot of room to maneuver.

Now it’s not likely that Pezeshkian will be able to build that consensus. His campaign had little institutional backup, and on the occasions that he has expressed allegiance to running in different factions, there have yet to be real signs of buy-in from conservatives. Pezeshkian may have come from the reformist wing of parliament, although he is dedicated to working with and within the Islamic Republic and the regime.

“He is really a frontline reformer, not an extremist or an ideological reformist,” said Ali Waze, director of the Iran program at the Global Disaster Staff. “That’s why he’s stayed in the system so long.”

As mentioned, there are some areas where Pejcekian could make a difference – basically in a social capacity, like easing hijab rules, which led to massive, violent protests in 2022. The protests that followed were in line with the death of Mahsa Amini, however, they also reflected society’s anger about repressive conditions under Peshkezian’s radical predecessor, cleric Ibrahim Raisi, who died in a helicopter skirmish in May . Amini’s death sparked anger about long-term, dire financial conditions caused by a mix of racial inequality, restrictions on girls’ habits and harsh restrictions, bureaucratic mismanagement and executive corruption.

Throughout the campaign, Pezeshkian condemned Amini’s death in custody and noted the crackdown on the protest movement, which has left several dead and thousands jailed. Mortazavi said softening hijab laws “could make a difference in enforcement in terms of the level of violence and harassment”.

An example of this is; When politicians from the reformist faction (a faction rather than a festival – there are no political events in Iran) come into the workplace, such rules are much less strictly enforced. “This is not just something where we are speculating or predicting, this is something we have seen before under (Hassan) Rouhani,” Mortazavi said. Rouhani was a reformist president who helped negotiate the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), often known as the Iran nuclear deal, in 2015.

Pezeshkian could also make greater efforts to subjugate ethnic minorities such as the Kurdish population, Arabs, Baluch and Azeris. Pezeshkian himself is Kurdish and Azeri and comes from Azerbaijan province, which is home to a large number of minorities and is one of the provinces that has long suffered from underinvestment and a harsh crackdown on protests there.

The economy – a key prerequisite for citizens of almost every background and political temperament – ​​could also be an area where Pejskian could move the needle and help support the life of society. However, its efficacy will be limited because Iran’s economic crisis is caused by three interconnected factors: major US sanctions; Those sanctions led to rampant corruption and profiteering, particularly among components of the Islamic Innovative Cover Corps; And mismanagement.

Like Rouhani, Pezeshkian may aim to “make more smaller agreements with Washington to provide some more sanctions relief or allow increased oil sales,” the lawyer said.

Pezeshkian may aim to reduce inflation, which is currently about 50 percent, as well as introduce policies to get Iran off the blacklist of the global anti-money laundering team Financial Motion Process Power, which specifically targets China. Can help in increasing business with.

These minimal differences matter to people, Weiss said, because it gives them “the ability to live relatively normal lives.”

Pezeshkian has been quite successful in campaigning about what he can and cannot do – for example, he has little influence over the judiciary, so he can probably do little to support the conditions of political prisoners. Is.

And Parti Pezeshkian has also expressed a desire to be more candid toward the West, in particular, “He is not proposing to make any big deal with the US or the West,” Vakil said. There are some obstacles to such engagement – ​​fundamentally America’s reluctance to act.

Although the easing of sanctions through unused nuclear stability would benefit Iran’s financial system, there would be “very severe retribution” on efforts to do so from so-called “sanctions dealers” – officials and those close to them who would benefit from it. Is. For example, promoting black market goods, according to Waze.

Pezeshkian, whose empty file is perhaps part of his appeal to citizens suffering from political malfeasance, has also considered the principle of curbing corruption, although this too may have limited achievement.

“It would be useful to run a really deep and meaningful anti-corruption campaign, but it would be impossible,” the lawyer said. Rather, additional transparency around promises and decision-making is perhaps Pezeshkian’s level of improvement.

In terms of regional dynamics, there is little chance of change; He has prompted continued discussions with Saudi Arabia after the detention of previous enemies in 2023. And some reports suggest that Pezeshkian and Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah have considered every option in their ongoing backup. Pezeshkian reportedly wrote to Nasrallah, “The Islamic Republic has always supported the resistance of the people of the region against the illegal Zionist regime.”

Pezeshkian has little control over the Islamic Innovative Cover Corps, so even if he was hoping to significantly change regional dynamics, it may be unimaginable.

In the end, an unused president isn’t going to change Iran any month soon. Pezeshkian will inevitably make minor changes in the long term, even if he can support the lives of habitual Iranians within the Snip term.