In an editorial on Vladimir Putin’s recent visit to North Korea, China’s state-owned Xinhua news agency declared that the visit and return “may have touched a raw nerve” in Washington.
What the Chinese-language propaganda mouthpieces naturally did not take into account was that Putin’s meeting with Kim Jong Un, which sealed mutual defense support trade, would have unsettled any other fat capital: Beijing.
President Xi Jinping has been exercising caution for months as the two remarkable, if difficult, allies have grown closer, with Pyongyang supplying Moscow with much-needed ammunition for its invasion of Ukraine in exchange for guarantees of higher military production .
Publicly, China has avoided any complaints. However signs of discomfort are emerging. In April, Xi sent the most senior Chinese Communist Party leader in five years to visit North Korea to reestablish the two sides’ “deep friendship”.
Analysts believe China is concerned that Kim’s deepening ties with Putin could create a sense of sovereignty in Beijing. If emboldened, the North Korean dictator could engage in additional missile tests, threatening to destabilize an already troubled region.
Putin’s original advice will be of no help in resolving such issues. Russian and North Korean leaders signed a “Treaty on Comprehensive Strategic Partnership”, which includes prompt military and alternative assistance “by all available means” in the event of an attack, according to the NK News translation.
Shen Dingli, a Chinese language teacher at the Department of World Studies, said the condition for China was that Beijing and Pyongyang made their mutual defense promise in the “Treaty on Friendship, Cooperation and Mutual Assistance” first signed in 1961.
It would be disappointing if Pyongyang felt obliged to make a pact with one of Russia’s belligerents – such as an invasion of Ukraine – so Moscow’s enemy could attack North Korea. The flip could potentially lead to a mutual defense treaty between Beijing and Pyongyang, leaving China hanging on the spot.
“North Korea has unnecessarily put China in a very dangerous situation,” Shen said.
Alternative scholars are additional optimistic, emphasizing that the China–North Korean treaty was signed long ago and that Beijing’s interpretation of it has evolved. Ren Xiao, a schoolmaster at Fudan College’s Institute of World Research, said that for China the agreement “does not mean automatic military involvement in any conflict on the Korean Peninsula”.
China and North Korea have long had a poor bilateral relationship, leading some analysts to label them “bitter allies”. Pyongyang continues to launch military provocations towards its neighbours, causing frustration in Beijing as the regional balance deteriorates.
The language of the Russian-North Korean treaty may also have been too vague to give either side leeway. Throughout the Soviet era, both countries also promised mutual defense, but this was never implemented and eventually ended, despite several similar skirmishes.
“The warning is what would be helpful,” said Yun Solar, director of the China program at Stimson Middle, a think-tank in Washington. “So it looks like they’ve left it quite vague.”
All this leaves the question whether Kim and Putin, more dependent on Xi than ever, will likely be concerned about their tough spouse.
Shen urged that they may feel that China has not helped them enough – Putin wants more from China than dual-use technology to help his fight in Ukraine and wants Beijing to buy more Russian gas. .
Kim, for his part, will likely consider that Beijing is not providing enough support to his regime to the detriment of the United States and its allies. When Chinese, East and South Korean leaders mentioned denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula at a trilateral summit last year, Pyongyang condemned the talk as a “serious political provocation.”
Putin’s recent tenure called Kim Russia’s “most honest friend” to North Korea – an indirect dig at China, reflecting Pyongyang’s ability to confront Beijing and Moscow during the Cold War. Both leaders were eager to demonstrate that they had more friends than Beijing.
Few people would be expecting any kind of protest from Beijing. It still wants to keep its distance from any kind of trilateral strategic arrangement with the two rogue countries.
Reflecting Beijing’s frustration, Xinhua once dismissed North Korea’s potential trade contribution to Russia. North Korea “cannot provide a major incentive for Russia to get out of its economic difficulties in the short term,” Xinhua wrote.
It went unsaid that China was the only game in town for Putin when it came to economic aid.
For Xi, who boasts of his personal relationship with Putin, the episode is a reminder that in statecraft friendship matters to the minute, even in a “no-limits” partnership, as China has sole claim along with Russia.