With latest North Korea deal, Russia steps up stakes on Ukraine

Behind the smiles, balloons and President Vladimir Putin’s red carpet spectacle consult north korea Last week, a strong signal came: In the escalating war with the US and its allies over Ukraine, Russian leaders are ready to challenge Western interests as never before.

the agreement they signed North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has envisioned mutual military aid between Moscow and Pyongyang if they were attacked. Putin also previously announced that Russia could provide weapons to the faraway country, a development that could destabilize the Korean Peninsula and spread far beyond.

He described the possible Finger shipment as a response to NATO allies offering Ukraine long-range guns to attack Russia. He clearly declared that Moscow had nothing to lose and was prepared to travel “to the end” to reach its objectives in Ukraine.

Putin’s attacks have raised concerns in Washington and Seoul about what they see as an alliance in which North Korea supplies Moscow with badly needed weapons. fighting in ukraine In exchange for financial aid and technology transfers that could toughen the threat posed by Kim’s nuclear guns and missile program.

a historic agreement

fresh word of respect Relations between Moscow and Pyongyang marked the strongest since the end of the Cold War.

Putin was extra cautious before Kim said it raised bilateral ties to the extent of an alliance, adding that respect for mutual military assistance reflects a 1961 treaty between the Soviet Union and North Korea. That term of honor was dropped after the fall of the Soviet Union and replaced with a weaker term when Putin visited Pyongyang for the first time in 2000.

Stepan Sestanovich, senior fellow at the Foreign Family Council, said Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev, after signing a trade deal with Pyongyang in 1961, also tested the world’s largest nuclear bomb, built the Berlin Wall and possibly had an interest in it. Started taking. Those attacks resulted in the Cuban missile disaster in 1962.

“The question now for Western policymakers is whether Putin is becoming comparatively reckless,” Sestanovich said in a commentary. “His language in North Korea – where he denounced the United States as a ‘worldwide neo-colonialist dictatorship’ – might make you think so.”

South Korea replied Noting that it could consider sending a hand to Ukraine in a major policy tradeoff for Seoul, which has so far sent humanitarian aid to Kiev under a long-term policy of not giving guns to countries engaged in war.

Putin stressed that Seoul had nothing to worry about, as the latest agreement envisions military assistance at best in case of aggression and would serve as a deterrent to stop the fighting. . He issued a stern warning to South Korea against supplying lethal weapons to Ukraine, saying it could be a “huge mistake”.

“If that happens, we will also take decisions that will hardly please South Korea’s current leadership,” he said.

Asked whether North Korean troops could fight alongside Russian forces in Ukraine under the agreement, Putin said there was little need.

Possible guns for Pyongyang

ultimate year, Putin warned Russia may provide long-range guns to others to hit Western targets NATO allies are allowing Ukraine Giving importance to the fingers of its allies to carry out prohibited attacks within the Russian dimension.

He followed up that blackmail on Thursday with the specific threat of providing guns to North Korea.

“I would not rule it out, given our agreements with the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea,” Putin said. He said Moscow could reflect NATO allies’ arguments that coming to a decision is the best course for Ukraine. Western guns.

“We can similarly say that we supply something to someone but we have no control over what happens after that,” Putin said. “Let them think about it.”

Sue Mi Terry, senior fellow for Korea Research at the Council on Overseas Families, warned that Moscow could share gun technologies with Pyongyang to help strengthen its ballistic missile capabilities, noting that this is already happening. There is evidence, with Russia most likely offering assistance to North Korea with its successful satellite launch starting in November, two months after Kim finally met with Putin.

“This is extremely concerning because of the substantial overlap between the technologies used for space launches and intercontinental ballistic missiles,” Terry said in an observation. “Russia can also provide significant assistance to North Korea in areas where its capabilities are still nascent, such as submarine-launched ballistic missiles.”

In addition to raising the possibility of Pyongyang violating UN sanctions, Putin also said Russia would step up efforts on the global framework to enjoy sanctions relief – a clear indication that Moscow supplies Pyongyang with fingers under the radar. May struggle to stock and maintain. Some degree of denial may be used to avoid accusations of violating sanctions.

Russia and North Korea, through the United States and its allies, make unacceptable claims that Pyongyang has supplied Moscow with ballistic missiles and hundreds of thousands of artillery pieces for its role in Ukraine.

Going ‘to the end’ in disagreement with the West

Apparently linking possible arm shipments to Pyongyang to Western attacks on Ukraine, Putin warned Kiev’s allies to move in the opposite direction while furthering their goals in the war – or face a new round of war.

“They are escalating the situation, apparently hoping that we will be frightened at some point, and at the same time, they say they want to inflict a strategic defeat on Russia on the battlefield,” Putin said. “For Russia, this will mean the end of its statehood, the end of the millennium-long history of the Russian state. And a question arises: why should we be afraid? So isn’t it better to go to the end?”

Alexander Gabiev, director of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center in Berlin, said Putin’s comments reflect the struggle to prevent the US and its allies from increasing aid to Kiev as Russia takes new aggressive steps in various areas of the entry pipeline.

“The situation is becoming increasingly dangerous, and Russia believes it must immediately rebuke the West to show that it is deeply engaged in the war,” he said in comments via Dozhd, a sovereign Russian broadcaster. “There is a price to be paid for participation.”

He said Putin’s comment that Moscow would not know where its hands would be if they were sent to Pyongyang could be a hint at North Korea’s role as an exporter of hands.

We are moving cautiously with China

Putin’s visit to North Korea created a new problem for the Pyongyang government’s best friend, China, perhaps allowing Kim to hedge his bets and reduce his top reliance on Beijing.

China has been shying away from comment till now On the latest agreement, however, many experts argue that Beijing would not like to give up influence on its neighbor.

Since Putin invaded Ukraine, Russia has become more dependent on China as a main market for its energy exports and a source of high-tech technologies in the face of Western sanctions. Before forging ties with Pyongyang, the Kremlin will likely move cautiously to avoid angering Beijing.

“Whether this enhanced Russia-North Korea relationship will be borderless depends on China,” Edward Howell of the Chatham area, which follows events closely, said in a statement. “Beijing may have taken a strong note of Kim Jong Un’s claim that Russia is North Korea’s ‘most honest friend.’ Despite potential increased cooperation in advanced military technology between Moscow and Pyongyang, China remains North Korea’s largest economic partner.