World Outlook: Emerging economies will grow using agricultural markets

Significant regional changes are predicted within the coming decade

Published on 8 July 2024

Paris/Rome – Emerging economies have rapidly driven world agricultural market trends over the past two decades and are projected to continue to do so over the next decade, albeit with a record, changing demographics and regional differences linked to ancient financial prosperity. The changes were followed by a recent acquittal by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) and the Organization for Financial Co-operation and Development (OECD).

The OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2024-2033 is the leading global reference for medium-term prospects for agricultural commodity markets, and this edition marks the 20th^th Joint newspaper edition. For twenty years, the Record has analyzed trends within the demographic and financial drivers of agricultural commodity supply and demand, estimated changes in manufacturing and consumption locations, and assessed resulting changes in global agriculture industry patterns.

An impressive change is expected in the coming decade from the rising position of India, Southeast Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa and the declining position of China. For example, while China recorded 28 percent growth in global consumption of agriculture and fisheries over the past decade, its percentage of excess demand is projected to fall to 11 percent over the next decade, thanks only to shrinking communities and slow revenue growth. is given to. But in addition to the stabilization of dietary patterns.

India and Southeast Asian countries are estimated to account for 31 percent of global consumption growth by 2033, driven by their growing urban communities and rising prosperity. Predominantly low-income regions, sub-Saharan Africa is projected to contribute a large share of excess world intake (18 percent), largely due to community development-driven demand for food.

Overall agricultural and fisheries consumption (in the form of food, feed, gas and alternative commercial raw materials) is projected to grow by 1.1 percent each year over the next decade, with almost all additional consumption projected to occur at low and medium levels. Income Nation. Consumption of food calories is expected to increase by 7 percent in middle-income countries, mainly due to higher intake of staple foods, animal products and fats. Calorie consumption in low-income countries will grow at 4 percent, which is too slow to reach the Sustainable Development Goals target of zero hunger by 2030.

“The Outlook confirms the need to implement strategies that close the productivity gap in low- and middle-income countries to increase domestic production and raise farmers’ incomes,” said Qi Dongyu, Director-General of FAO.

“This Outlook serves as a valuable reference for policy planning, providing a solid evidence base and data for the medium-term prospects for agricultural commodity markets. Over the coming decade, the volume of agricultural commodities traded globally is expected to widen between net export sectors and net import sectors, but with regional variations reflecting growth in global consumption in India and Southeast Asian countries,’ OECD Secretary-General Mathias Cormann where did it go. “Well-functioning agricultural markets, reducing food loss and waste, and more productive and less polluting forms of production will remain critically important to global food security and to ensuring that rural livelihoods can sustain global agricultural food.” to benefit from value chains.”

Focusing on productivity and reducing food loss and wastage

The growth in compressive manufacturing is projected to be driven primarily through increased productivity on existing land rather than selection of cultivated area, which is important for deep reduction of agriculture’s world greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Similarly, a significant portion of the growth in cattle and fish production can be expected to result from increases in productivity, even though herd expansion will also contribute to manufacturing growth. Direct emissions from agriculture are subsequently projected to increase by 5 percent during the projection period.

Despite these anticipated productivity gains, significant productivity gaps are projected to persist, particularly in the least productive countries in Africa and Asia, which will challenge farm incomes and food security and increase countries’ needs for food imports. Technological lag, limited input importance and natural climatic conditions are among the major elements causing inequality in agricultural productivity.

Well-functioning global agricultural commodity markets will continue to be vital to world food security, as 20 percent of energy is traded and rural livelihoods can enjoy participation in markets and world agri-food value chains.

The underlying reasons behind the peak in global agricultural costs in 2022 are declining and real global reference costs for primary agricultural commodities are projected to renew their negligible declining pattern over the next 10 years; Alternatively, the Record notes that this may not be reflected in local retail food prices.

The event’s outlook includes a scenario that simulates the impact of halving food loss along supply chains and food wastage at the retail and consumer level by 2030. This scenario estimates a potential 4 percent reduction in global agricultural GHG emissions. In 2030, revenues distributed nominally across the country without reference to borders. It also seeks to reduce food prices, improving food consumption in low- and lower-middle-income countries by 10 percent and 6 percent respectively, potentially reducing the number of undernourished households by 153 million (-26 percent) She goes. By 2030. While the situation highlights potential benefits for consumers and circumstances, it also highlights challenging conditions for producers, as lower producer costs and reduced production will significantly impact their livelihoods.

As in previous editions, the Outlook trades decadal projections for cereals, oilseeds, vegetable oils, sugar, meat, fish, dairy products as well as admixtures, roots and tubers, pulses, bananas and tropical fruits and biofuels. Market estimates are based on signals on food and greenhouse gasoline emissions from agriculture. Commodity highlights as per dedicated chapters are as follows:

It is estimated that the demand for grains will continue to grow based on the importance of food, followed by the importance of food. In 2033, 41 percent of all grains will be consumed immediately by humans, 36 percent will be wasted as animal feed, with the remainder being processed into biofuels and other commercial products.

Yield demand conditions for oilseeds are projected to remain subdued, with major producers facing slow growth or declines in the post harvest, particularly in Indonesia and Malaysia for palm oil, and the EU and Canada for rapeseed. In.

Poultry meat will continue to dominate the expanding beef sector, largely due to its relative affordability and perceived dietary benefits. Meat is projected to account for 43 percent of total protein consumption by 2033.

Global milk production is projected to grow by 1.6 percent by opportunity over the next decade, which is faster than other major agricultural products. There will be a lot of progress in India and Pakistan.

More than 85 percent of additional projected fish production will come from aquaculture, increasing its proportion to 55 percent of world fish production by 2033.

Data and information from Outlook, including preliminary findings, is available free of charge at www.agri-outlook.org. You are invited to include this web hyperlink in Outlook studies.

-FAO