NORTH AUGUSTA, SC – While waiting for a connecting flight inside Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport late Thursday night, I ran into a college basketball coach I’ve known for years. As per airport tradition, I asked where he was going. He said he was going to attend an Adidas event in South Carolina.
Then he asked where I was going.
“Peach jam,” I replied.
“The most stress-free Peach Jam in history,” the coach later said, at which point we chatted about how the various changes to the game have dramatically changed the way the game has played out and the best high schools in the country this month. Many possibilities will emerge. Once again you have landed in this tranquil community just a few miles across the Savannah River from Augusta National Golf Club.
So what did Coach mean by “stress-free” peach jam? To understand, you first have to understand how things were before the game was completely overturned by zero deals and transfer-waivers for all. At that time, coaches will be entering July and will be somewhat focused on high school prospects and extremely motivated to secure commitments as quickly as possible. After years and years of attending grassroots games and texting and calling non-stop, it often felt devastating when they missed it – partly because of all the time wasted, but mostly because alternative options were limited. Were and were not that good in theory.
But now things are different.
Heck, I’m sure some staffers – maybe Kevin Young’s new staff at BYU – would still love to get an early commitment from the consensus No. 1 player in the class of 2025, AJ DiBuntsa. The 6-foot-9 wing is now set to attend his final year of high school in Utah. People like him are the real difference makers. But apart from super-elite prep prospects who project as one-upping lottery selections in the future, every high-major staffer can reasonably assume there’s someone three or four years older and a majority is two or three times better equipped to make an impact on an immediate win in comparison. The high school prospects they are looking at this month will be available when the transfer portal opens after Selection Sunday.
Mississippi State coach Chris Jans said, “Unless you’re a program that will recruit all portal-kids, you’re still going to want to sign some good high school players – but you don’t need to sign so many players anymore. Not there.” , “So the pressure probably isn’t as fierce as it once was for an entire staff. Because (in this era of recruiting), if you sign one or two (high school prospects early), you’ll feel pretty good about it.” ”
Kansas is a perfect place to highlight how much things have changed.
Naismith Memorial Hall of Fame coach Bill Self has been running one of the best programs in the game for more than two decades, primarily by enrolling high school prospects. They had a top-ranked recruit selected No. 1 in the NBA Draft (Andrew Wiggins), a sub-50 recruit win the Wooden Award (Frank Mason) and basically everything in between. The internal development of players graduating from high school and immediately enrolling at KU has been a key component of the program’s success year after year.
And it still will, I’m sure.
But it’s hard not to notice that the Jayhawks recorded more transfers than high school prospects last year — and then did the same again this year by a margin of 5 to 2. KU’s two leading scorers last season began their college careers at Texas Tech (Kevin McCullers Jr.) and Michigan (Hunter Dickinson). Barring a surprise, 60% of KU’s starting lineup next season will be transfers with AJ Storr (Wisconsin) and Rylan Griffen (Alabama) potentially joining Dickinson along with Dajuan Harris and KJ Adams.
Is this the new winning recipe? As always, we’ll see. But, for what it’s worth, Kansas is No. 1 in the 2024-25 CBS Sports Preseason Top 25 and 1 College Basketball Rankings.
Alabama is No. 2 in the top 25 and No. 1 and will likely start five players who began their college careers at different schools — notably Auburn (Aiden Holloway), Ohio (Mark Sears), Cal State Fullerton (Latrell Wrightsell ) North Dakota State (Grant Nelson) and Rutgers (Clifford Omoruyi). Houston is ranked No. 3 in the top 25 and 1 and is enrolling only two high school prospects this year, neither of whom are guaranteed to be heavy contributors as a freshman under Kelvin Sampson.
I asked Baylor’s Scott Drew, who guided the Bears to a national championship in 2021, if he’s being more selective with high school prospects than earlier in his career — before Division I. Players should be able to transfer every year and play immediately.
“I think everyone is,” he replied. “It used to be, if we needed a larger class, we (felt like we had to) bring in six high school kids. Now, no one feels that way. If we could just find the right kids So we can sign three or four, but it’s not like we’re already signing four, you know?”
“It’s made it harder for every high-schooler.”
Norton Hurd IV, coach of the Memphis-based Team THAD program, which is competing in Peach Jam this week, echoed what Jans and Drew told me and explained how quickly he’s seen things change from his perspective. Then again, tip-tops will always be in high demand in every high school classroom. What Diabantsa ultimately gets in zero sum will be equally exposed.
“But everybody else is treated like a 3-star (prospect) now… because (if a college coach) doesn’t get a high school kid, they’re still good because, let’s be real, A mid-major transfer is going to be more productive (than most freshmen) in that first year (of college).”
This is unquestionably true.
That’s why most high-major coaches are now focusing more on experienced transfers than inexperienced high school recruits. As Drew mentioned, the result is that it is now harder for most high school prospects to be the centerpiece of any class, receive high-major offers early or even receive offers at all. It has been difficult to receive the same offers as comparable high school prospects. As recently as five years ago. Unless, say, you’re a top-100 high school recruit, you’re unlikely to get priority consideration at a top-50 program. And if you are, it’s probably only because those programs don’t want to spend a lot of zero money on players who aren’t likely to make it into the rotation next season.
“Sometimes you take (high school prospects) because they’re like rookies (in the NBA) — they’re cheap,” USC coach Eric Musselman said. “You take them to fill out your roster.”
So high school recruits cost less than transfers?
“Unless it’s very good,” Musselman replied.
Meanwhile, St. Joseph’s coach Billy Lang sat courtside at the Peach Jam on Friday, evaluating the prospects in a way that may have seemed a little odd. He does not coach in the Big Ten or SEC. So, if all goes well, he’ll eventually get a commitment from his coveted high school prospect, enroll him, watch him become Atlantic 10 Freshman of the Year — and then get Lange to keep him. Will have to fight like crazy. High-profile programs that will cost lakhs of rupees.
The good news: Lange was able to retain their leading scorer, Eric Reynolds, despite the 6-2 guard averaging 17.3 points and shooting 38% from 3-point range after last season. The bad news: In general, retaining such players – the Big Ten, SEC, Big 12 and ACC schools want – is now harder than ever for A-10 (and similar) programs, as Lang just noted. -had just shown up, and those programs are almost always going to be at a financial loss, which is why Lange told me he spends so much time on other things.
“I believe we play a high level of basketball, so I’m constantly promoting and conveying that — and we have a reasonably competitive group (for the NIL),” Lang said. “(So my players) realize they can probably make some more money at some (other) places but that doesn’t mean it’s better for them.”
This is the world we live in now.
It has never been more difficult for low-major and mid-major programs to annually keep the players they want to keep, with second-tier and third-tier high school prospects receiving offers from higher-major programs. It has never been harder, and it has never been harder. Unless you have hundreds of millions of dollars available to build a roster at the top of the game, yes, buy established players directly from the transfer portal. As a coach said to me this weekend, never tell a coach he is going to “recruit” transfers.
“Really none of us Recruitment transfers,” the coach said. “We are Buying Transfer.”
Which made this year’s Peach Jam a little unusual in the sense that every day of the event in years past you would read reports about this player getting a Kentucky offer or that player getting a UCLA offer. It was offer after offer after offer. But now it has reduced a lot. Because the Peach Jam is no longer where most high-major coaches come to build the teams of the future, but instead it’s where they come to watch a group of 17-year-old kids who probably can’t help themselves anymore But that can only help three or four years after a few productive seasons at the collegiate level get them into the transfer portal.
And that’s when the bidding actually begins.
This post was published on 07/15/2024 2:50 pm
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